With decent training, 90% can run 5:45 or faster. Almost everyone, but there are going to be some people who are just not cut out to run at all.
90%? Really? 90f@cking% of all girls could run a 5:45 mile?
More like 90% couldn't run a 5:45 mile no matter how much they trained for it.
My kid's school has about 400 girls in it. The fastest girl is a 7th grader at 5:59. But under your estimation there's 360 girls in that building that could drop 86 second laps four times in a row with no break.
With decent training, 90% can run 5:45 or faster. Almost everyone, but there are going to be some people who are just not cut out to run at all.
90%? Really? 90f@cking% of all girls could run a 5:45 mile?
More like 90% couldn't run a 5:45 mile no matter how much they trained for it.
My kid's school has about 400 girls in it. The fastest girl is a 7th grader at 5:59. But under your estimation there's 360 girls in that building that could drop 86 second laps four times in a row with no break.
He’s probably referring to 90% of kids who actually join the track team and want to run the mile.
I coach at a school with about 600 girls. 45 girls joined the cross country team. Of those 45, about 20 will stay for track and run the 1600 at some point. Of those 20, maybe 12-15 will run under 5:45.
In my experience, it is close to 90% of the girls who join track and are dedicated to it and train well, not 90% of the population. Of the general population of high school girls at any given moment, it’s probably closer to 2% in my experience.
If all females trained as though their lives depended on it, 90% could break 5:45 (and about the same % of males could break 5). I was not suggesting that they could do it in Jr High, could do it in a few weeks, in a season, or more even year, or that this is the percentage that actually achieves it. Obviously.
I take it that you observe what people do and then conclude that’s the highest ultimate potential of what they could do? Or, maybe you project your perceived talent level onto everyone else? Regardless, I feel bad for you. Sorry.
If all females trained as though their lives depended on it, 90% could break 5:45 (and about the same % of males could break 5). I was not suggesting that they could do it in Jr High, could do it in a few weeks, in a season, or more even year, or that this is the percentage that actually achieves it. Obviously.
I take it that you observe what people do and then conclude that’s the highest ultimate potential of what they could do? Or, maybe you project your perceived talent level onto everyone else? Regardless, I feel bad for you. Sorry.
If their lives depended on it, there would be a lot less females and that would be really bad.
The breeding population would be nothing but sub 5:45 milers but none would be for you.
Although I'm a fan of assuming great human potential in all endeavours, my impression is that Pointed is making a better prediction that Justmyopinion. As someone who only started running as an adult and was very mediocre (15:51 5k) by standards of many on letsrun, I did run a few 4:38 miles. But I had (male) friends in my Master's track team who trained *very* hard (pretty nearly as though "their lives depended on it" - it is not at all clear to me that they could have withstood any harder training without breakdown and perhaps becoming permanently injured) and quite a few of them never managed to break 5:00 for the mile. And these were self-selected folks who were much more talented and driven than the average person. So I also question Justmyopinion's assertion that about 90% of males could break 5:00 - it seems to me a wildly optimistic assertion akin to people saying "humans only use 1-2% of their brain potential" (but with no evidence to back that up).
With decent training, 90% can run 5:45 or faster. Almost everyone, but there are going to be some people who are just not cut out to run at all.
90%? Really? 90f@cking% of all girls could run a 5:45 mile?
More like 90% couldn't run a 5:45 mile no matter how much they trained for it.
My kid's school has about 400 girls in it. The fastest girl is a 7th grader at 5:59. But under your estimation there's 360 girls in that building that could drop 86 second laps four times in a row with no break.
Is it possible for any girl if they train? Can only 75% do it with training?
Growing up, I was always a fast runner. I could beat a lot of the boys as a kid and was usually the fastest or second fastest girl in the class. I played soccer, and my greatest strength was being able to outsprint the other kids.
I ran track in high school and ran 5:52 as my PR off 20 to 25 miles per week. I also ran cross country, and so, with summer training, I was running 15 to 25 mpw about 8 months a year.
I do think I could have broken 5:45 with more miles. But in my opinion, 90% of women can never break 5:45 with say up to 50 mpw of training. If you starved all girls down to peak running weight, maybe 50% could do it.
I was that crazy dedicated runner in high school. I was the 2nd fastest miler by my senior year. Our track team was composed of 90 girls. About 20 of them ran the mile. Most all had heart and did every workout. We also ran XC and trained year around. We had 7 girls under 6 min (I ran 5:18). We had 4 girls under 5:45. The 13 girls who didn't break 6 min were hard working runners. It takes a lot to show up everyday knowing you're not going to ever place/score points. We were apart of a program (year around coaching, cross training, weight training, water workouts, athletic trainers available, etc). Everyone had growth and there was constant improvement. Some of those girls trained their hearts out but they weren't born to break 6 min.
It's hard for each of us to understand just how talented we are relative to the regular population. It takes some talent for a HS girl to run sub 5:45. I'd have to say somewhere in the range of 2-10% of the general population of HS girls have the talent to run sub 5:45 with proper training.
Is it possible for any girl if they train? Can only 75% do it with training?
I find threads like this mildly interesting in that people really miss the point that unless you're Natalie Cook, you have to train. And getting girls or boys to train I think is 75 percent of the battle.
I was pretty slow in high school, but my coach always noted that I was the only one who never complained about whatever workout, run, etc. I stunk, but I loved running (and still do). A lot of people stop practicing or realizing what it takes to improve.
My point is ... Fine, maybe a certain percentage has the talent to run a certain time, but good look getting that talented percentage of the population to practice consistently and stick with it, if they don't have something else that's more fun to. That mental side leads to much lower outcomes.
This experiment is done every year with hundreds of thousands of participants. Find a list of all HS runners who ran the 1600/mile. You will find a fairly small percentage of females breaks 5:45 and the same is true for males under 5:00. Don't forget that this is a self selected sample of the population who had the desire to run the 1600/mile. So you could expect that the percentage of the general population the could achieve this would be significantly lower.