Hellen Obiri - New York Marathon

2:17:54 is a little bonkers considering the women's course record is 2:22:31. If this was Berlin or Chicago, sure, but it's NY. I could see her breaking the record if she has a fantastic day, but I don't see sub 2:20 happening.

True - I feel (wrongly probably) that the womens course record is a little 'soft' and ON have been hyping up how well her training has been going - but I might just ammend my prediction by a couple of minutes ;-)

It is definitely soft, but it's going to be hot and the runners might be conservative as result. If you go by the course being around 2 mins slower than a fast, flat marathon than a 2:21 would be really strong. I think it's doable but 2:22-2:24 with a negative split and some fast segments might be most likely though.

2:22:30 for Obiri.

It is a bit of a soft record. But Peres Jepchirchir was only a few seconds away last year of the record, and she is almost GOAT status and was clearly in great shape last year coming off of her Olympic win and NYC win. With the heat I would be very surprised if the record is lowered, but would be great to see.

Obiri 2:21.47 Course Record is Mu Prediction, She WILL Run under 2:17 before her career is over, NOT on the New York Course, but on a Berlin, Valencia Course

Three runners break the course record: Gebreslase, Obiri, Teferi.

Obiri's kick seals the win in 2:21:31.