Any examples of great college XC runners who were better at the 800 or 1600 in HS than the 3200?

How would that be a "red flag"? It may just mean that they're a great 1500m runner with good strength. Kevin Sullivan was a great college example of this, as well as Bernard Lagat. Alan Webb was a good HS example.

That's going to be the trend on most teams. They were high responders in longer events in HS and they stayed high responders to longer events in college. Same for high responders in the 800m, that's the stuff they generally improve the most from.

We have a few runners that didn't like longer events in HS so they avoided them. In college they found that they were actually pretty good at them and in some cases were far better when they moved up.

Everyone likes the idea of being a miler or an 800m runner. Sometimes it's not until college that they embrace a longer event even though they would have been better at it. We see the same thing with every sprinter thinking they're a 100m runner. The 400m hurts and doesn't always have the same star factor, some kids just avoid it and later come around to actually running their best event, not necessarily their favorite one.

Webb. Hall.

Joe Falcon

Lomong: Successful at all distances, but focused on mid-D in HS and NCAA. 4th in 2006 after running 1:47 in June of 2006, 3rd in 2007 after running 1:45/3:37 in June of 2007.

Curtis: Similarly successful at all distances in HS and NCAA, and definitely a miler early on at Villanova. 15th in 2004 as a true freshman, 4th in 2007.

Presumably, the best collegiate XC runners would be the high school runners best at 10k

Problem is, few or no NCAA programs are going to recruit or offer $$ to anyone with a 10k PR.

Pat Porter. His 4:30 was better than his 9:50. Obviously was a total stud later in XC.

But sure the OP has a point. If a kid runs a 4:05 mile but isn't making footlocker, don't expect them to be a XC stud. Maybe it happens when the respond to mileage but odds are they are a mid D guy. Not everyone's best event is some long distance race. But this is stuff every coach knows.