Conner Mantz Will be a BETTER Marathoner than Galen Rupp

i must respectfully disagree with your post.

1) "prime years" for the marathon are typically older. How old is kipchoge? Take a look at the ages for the top 100 marathon performances. They definitely skew older than Conner. One could argue that a lot career on the track is ideal development for marathoning. A lifetime of aerobic development and capilarization is tough to compete with.

2) Conner tougher than Galen mentally? How the heck do you know that? Galen Rupp is rock solid mentally.

3) Prime Galen on the track is WAY better than current Mantz. not even close. Rupp broke 13 and ran 26:40 before the supershoes.

5) :legs more beat up"? That sounds like another way of saying one has more lifetime training and aerobic development.

6) Conner's form is not more efficient. Say what you will about AlSal, he left no rock unturned with Rupp, and Rupps form is FLAWLESS.

I hope that he does become the US's next great marathoner just because I want an American to do really well.

I appreciate your reply but when it comes to #3 I hope you understand that of course Galen WAS much better on the track (which I never argued to the contrary) although likely not when he transitioned to the marathon. Also Galen ran 26:44 but not quite 26:40. Actually Conner’s track bests are similar to Alberto Salazar’s.

Rupp’s bronze in Rio is worth a sub 2:04 in Berlin.

I don’t think Mantz will ever achieve such a feat. But he could be an excellent marathoner.

Rupp's 10K is a minute faster than Mantz's 10K. that projects to a 4 minute difference in the marathon.

This is not correct. Galen ran 26:44 to Conner’s 27:25 so roughly 41 seconds BUT Galen was no longer a sub 27 guy when he went to the marathon.

Dude what? He ran 27:0x for 5th In the Rio 10k a few days before he got bronze in the marathon. He clearly was in sub-27 shape. He just didn’t have the gears for a big last 200 like in London. Chalk that up to marathon training.

I agree with a lot of what you said, but I think Mantz's mental toughness suits him better for the marathon than the track. Rupp's most impressive races always came down to a nasty kick, his 10k silver being the prime example. His marathon bronze was as close to a kick as you get in a marathon (unless it's the 2022 CWG marathon that's a kick you've gotta watch if you haven't). His NCAA XC win was a kick the last 400, as were all of his other NCAA titles, and the 2012 nationals 5k to beat Lagat. He pushed from like mile 16 in the 2020 trials, but I think everyone knew he was the class of the field there.

Mantz won NCAA xc after getting dropped, fighting his way back, and then crushing everyone from 1k out. I don't think Rupp ever had a win like that unless it was a record attempt. Of course you don't get Olympic medals without being incredibly mentally tough, but I think Mantz's willingness to push hard from way out is gonna be great for the marathon. Bonus unasked for speculation, but Nico Young might be the best of both worlds. Can push from the front like a monster (NXN win) but has track speed like few others (13:11 as a sophomore).

You are 100% incorrect on your predictions. Galen was - and still is - better than Mantz. Sally Vix is correct that a 1 min difference in the 10k projects to a 4 min difference in the marathon.

yes it was cute fun to hear Mantz make a bold prediction. But 26.2 miles is a long way to race. This ain’t no tempo run when he can develop zen moments in the quiet peaceful countryside of wherever he trains.

let’s not forget! The Chicago Marathon is a race, after all.

time matters less than winning. Can he win like Rupp did? Can he get 2nd in the Boston Marathon? Can he get a bronze medal in an Olympic marathon?

Mantz seems like a good runner, but the answers to the above questions is no.

Yeah OK you are likely incorrect. Galen had almost PERFECT pacing in the Rio 10000m as the leaders went through 5000m in 13:33 and Galen was just a few seconds back yet Galen only managed a 27:08.92, which shows that he was unlikely in sub 27 shape as he was pulled along the entire race.

Where's that nutter from an old thread who said Parker Stinson was USA's best Male Marathoner? I miss them. That was a funny time.

Um. The race was won in 27:05. If the race was won in 26:50, he most likely would've finished in 26:55 or so.

No evidence whatsoever of this. Galen could NOT do it.

This is an athlete who got outkicked for 5th in the 10000m and then doubled back to get bronze in the marathon. Of course he would have been capable of a sub 27. You don't need "evidence", just common sense.

Watch the race. Galen would have medaled in that 10000m if he had that much in him.

The bronze in the marathon was partly due to his shoe advantage.

So you think running a 13:53 is the perfect pacing for a sub 27? I don't think anyone will agree with that.... I think most people would say ~13:53/13:15 is going to be sub 27:00.

I would like to correct myself about that Rio 10000m. I cannot seem to find a video of the race but I believe I made an error. It appears they may have gone through 5000m in 13:53. If that is the case then Galen was in better track shape than I thought. However nothing else changes in the sense that Galen was of course a better track runner than Conner. The marathon is where Conner will be better.

You have to factor in the sweltering humidity in Rio. Like 1/3 of the marathon runners dropped out by mile 18. So Rupp ran a hot 10K than three days later gets bronze in a marathon where many big names called it quits who had not even done the track 10,000.

Whoever you are you appear to have been either reading my mind or watching my post as I composed it. Yeah due to Alberto’s PEDs Galen had to have been in sub 27 shape in Rio BUT Conner will still be a better marathoner.