I have to respectfully disagree with the LRC points that "there’s no good reason for him to return to Berlin next year" and that he's probably getting too old to PR again.
Dude just ran 2:01:09 the HARD way.
Don't think he's wondering how things might have played out if he'd come through 13.1 in 60:25?
If I were him, I'd take a 2:00:xx Berlin 2023 over a NYC or Boston win. Perhaps I'll be proven wrong, but it's silly to say there's no good reason for him to go for it again
You're right. It's an americanocentric (is that a word ?) point of view to think he SHOULD run Boston or NY.
He has literally already stated he wants to win all 6 Marathon Majors, which leaves just Boston and NY. We've seen him run Berlin like 8 times and break the WR multiple times, what is there left to do at that race? He is closing in on 40, Sub 2 hours is out of reach, most people would rather see him chase the 6 majors and try a hilly & unpaced race rather than lop another 10 seconds off his own WR.
You're right. It's an americanocentric (is that a word ?) point of view to think he SHOULD run Boston or NY.
He has literally already stated he wants to win all 6 Marathon Majors, which leaves just Boston and NY. We've seen him run Berlin like 8 times and break the WR multiple times, what is there left to do at that race? He is closing in on 40, Sub 2 hours is out of reach, most people would rather see him chase the 6 majors and try a hilly & unpaced race rather than lop another 10 seconds off his own WR.
Agree- I wanna see him on a grind of a course like NYC and see if he could go Sun 2:04- to me that would be more impressive than sun 2:01
You're right. It's an americanocentric (is that a word ?) point of view to think he SHOULD run Boston or NY.
He has literally already stated he wants to win all 6 Marathon Majors, which leaves just Boston and NY. We've seen him run Berlin like 8 times and break the WR multiple times, what is there left to do at that race? He is closing in on 40, Sub 2 hours is out of reach, most people would rather see him chase the 6 majors and try a hilly & unpaced race rather than lop another 10 seconds off his own WR.
Winning all majors was clearly a B goal. Lowering the WR was far more important to him.
He has literally already stated he wants to win all 6 Marathon Majors, which leaves just Boston and NY. We've seen him run Berlin like 8 times and break the WR multiple times, what is there left to do at that race?
Sub 2:01:00. Maybe sub 2:00:30? Becoming the athlete who's broken the WR most times in modern recent history, maybe even tie with Peters?
The key question is how fit he needs to be to win Boston and NY. He needs to be 100% for a WR of course, but maybe 95% is enough for the other two so he could very well prioritize the WR and gamble that he will still have Boston and NY in him in his first two years of decline (who knows, maybe only one is enough).
I agree, he's clearly got multiple years at the top level still in him.
2023 - Boston / Berlin (Peak Kipchoge)
2024 - London / Paris (Still good enough to take home a third gold)
2025 - London / NYC (Over the hill Kipchoge beats up the american hobbyjoggers on home soil with a 2:05)
He retires at 40 with a 2:00:xx, all 6 marathon majors and 3 olympic titles.
This is correct. I think it’s more important for him to set a WR in the 2:00:xx range than to go after a win in NYC or Boston right now. Clearly Kipchoge still has some more in the tank, and winning NYC or Boston is what he does when he’s ready to retire and on his retirement tour victory lap.
I agree, he's clearly got multiple years at the top level still in him.
2023 - Boston / Berlin (Peak Kipchoge)
2024 - London / Paris (Still good enough to take home a third gold)
2025 - London / NYC (Over the hill Kipchoge beats up the american hobbyjoggers on home soil with a 2:05)
He retires at 40 with a 2:00:xx, all 6 marathon majors and 3 olympic titles.
I would have thought this should be the most obvious situation in everyone’s mind… running 2:01:09 with a positive split of nearly 90s?? Of course he’ll be thinking he could run 2:00:XX at least, on a even or mildly negative split.
and why would age suddenly make him slow significantly in 12 months if it didn’t in 2022? His training is obviously immaculate and even when he does start to decline it will initially be less than a minute or two per calendar year, and he’ll see it coming in training.
EK said a goal of his was to race all 6WMM and win… he can ship 3-4mins and still do that in 3 years time.
I would suspect he feels similar today as he did in how close he was at Monza - if not to sub-2 then absolutely no question to a 2:00:XX
I agree, he's clearly got multiple years at the top level still in him.
2023 - Boston / Berlin (Peak Kipchoge)
2024 - London / Paris (Still good enough to take home a third gold)
2025 - London / NYC (Over the hill Kipchoge beats up the american hobbyjoggers on home soil with a 2:05)
He retires at 40 with a 2:00:xx, all 6 marathon majors and 3 olympic titles.
This is correct. I think it’s more important for him to set a WR in the 2:00:xx range than to go after a win in NYC or Boston right now. Clearly Kipchoge still has some more in the tank, and winning NYC or Boston is what he does when he’s ready to retire and on his retirement tour victory lap.
This man has made a complete mockery of what we thought was possible in the marathon. If he does have a few more healthy years left in the marathon. I am not going to sit here and say he can't break 2. I think he clearly can. Granted the conditions have to perfect and he has to get the pacing right but I don't see it being impossible. He just opened with a sub 60 half and lived to tell the tale and break the world record without dying. He's done it before under controlled exhibition conditions. I don't think its insane to think he won't figure out the formula to do it legally in a year or two. He still has to remain healthy and cheat Father Time for another year or two; still, I kind of think he's gonna do it or at least get real, real close before all is said and done. He clearly wants sub 2 bad or we wouldn't have seen the ridiculous opening suicidal half. No way he just gives up the pursuit after doing that. He definitely will try again.
Kipchoge should just hobbyjog to victory in Boston this Spring just to get everyone to STFU and let him take another crack at sub 2 in Berlin next fall. If NYC were tomorrow, he could probably show up and win. What on earth does winning these two races have on the legacy of a dude whose won marathons for 9 straight years? Everyone saying Boston/NY wins are more impressive than a literal world record haven't been watching those joke of a races the past couple years