Use the 7 sec rule instead, I think a 4:48 could be possible with your 2:10
This is derivative from the "4 sec rule" for elites where you take your 800m pace per 400m and add 4 seconds for a really developed runner, for example a 2:10 would be worth 4:36. But for High schoolers I find 7 sec works better, and 6 seconds for endurance heavy guys who have proven they're a little stronger.
those charts do not work with most high schoolers. 99% of high schoolers have very poor aerobic development
+1
In my understanding, Daniels is assuming proper/full aerobic development over time. In HS, your body is still growing and presumably you have not spent several years optimally developing your aerobic fitness.
In HS I was 53.0 400 (anchor leg 4x400 split), 1:59 800, 4:37.0 1600, 10:18 3200, 17:50 5k. Even though I had above average speed my aerobic engine wasn't anywhere near what those calculators project as idea and thats the reason for the big drop-off as I went further in distance, same as you.
I had a teammate that ran 2:09, 4:45, 9:49, 16:30 his 400 meter PB was 61 seconds.
You can’t trust Daniels race predictors unless you are trying to predict 5k+ and are running 70+ miles a week.
Usually a 2:10 guy will be 4:45-4:50 with good aerobic training. You should be breaking 5 pretty easily. Don’t try and run 4:35 until you can hit 2:05 or so.
It’s all already been said. Those calculators are usable for adult runners with many years of consistent aerobic development. They’re generally useless for high schoolers, especially when trying to predict a highly aerobic event (1600) from a near 50/50 aerobic/anaerobic event like the 800.
It’s all already been said. Those calculators are usable for adult runners with many years of consistent aerobic development. They’re generally useless for high schoolers, especially when trying to predict a highly aerobic event (1600) from a near 50/50 aerobic/anaerobic event like the 800.
The Jack Daniel's calculator says I can run a 4:35 1600m with my 2:10 800m speed… but I ran 5:00 mile. 1740 5000m, 58.5 sec 400m (relay)
what are my times all over the place?
The “calculator” does not match the tables in his book. As far as I know, the only table in his books with 800m times is a separate table for 400,800,1500/mile, and a 2:09.8 is worth a 4:47.3, so a 2:10 would be 4:47.7. Actually, I should not say “worth”. The table is called “Speed vs Endurance Finder”. Jack suggests that you find your best time in each column, and draw a line through them, and see if your line slopes up or down, indicating your speed vs. endurance profile.
I don’t think the calculator is designed to do well with projections based on 800m.
Are you in HS or college? That's probably why. Just a little underdeveloped aerobically without the lifetime miles. I came to running later & have never broken 2:10 but have broken 4:40. Think about the calculators as showing you what your potential can be.
Nothing in Jack daniels’ work says that a 2:10 runner should be able to run 4:35.
The calculator is an imperfect tool. It does not reflect what Jack actually put in his book. Nobody says that a 2:10 runner should be able to run 4:35.
good news: Jack, and most of us, believe that a young 2:10 runner can eventually get a lot faster with commitment, effort, and smart training. You can do it!