He goes from being slowest freshman on his JV team to a 174 speed rating sophomore year to a 194 speed rating this year. one more big jump and can he win a national title next year (when Lex and Leo will be in college)?
194 for a 15:43... Aaron Salhman got a 195 for running a minute faster at Woodward park last year, same age. Seems like some pretty obvious NY bias here. Am I missing something?? Can someone explain how Speed Ratings are given?
Read somewhere that this course was slow and it was really hot at that time.
Maybe McGinn was able to handle these conditions better than most others. But no one came close to him in his race. Even his teammate who beat him in some races last year.
These conditions might have affected the rest of his team too. I had much higher expectations for them. Especially since it’s so senior-heavy this year. One of their varsity returners was missing though.
But either way, Corning and St. Anthony’s looked amazing this weekend and should be the class of New York. Corning actually raced when it was 80 degrees.
Read somewhere that this course was slow and it was really hot at that time.
Maybe McGinn was able to handle these conditions better than most others. But no one came close to him in his race. Even his teammate who beat him in some races last year.
These conditions might have affected the rest of his team too. I had much higher expectations for them. Especially since it’s so senior-heavy this year. One of their varsity returners was missing though.
But either way, Corning and St. Anthony’s looked amazing this weekend and should be the class of New York. Corning actually raced when it was 80 degrees.
Also, his teammate Otis is ranked 78th on Dyestat nationally
Read somewhere that this course was slow and it was really hot at that time.
Maybe McGinn was able to handle these conditions better than most others. But no one came close to him in his race. Even his teammate who beat him in some races last year.
These conditions might have affected the rest of his team too. I had much higher expectations for them. Especially since it’s so senior-heavy this year. One of their varsity returners was missing though.
But either way, Corning and St. Anthony’s looked amazing this weekend and should be the class of New York. Corning actually raced when it was 80 degrees.
Also, his teammate Otis is ranked 78th on Dyestat nationally
How?????? This guy hasn't broken 16 how is he nationally ranked? Not hating but this guy's run 4:29, did he bribe them to put him on there? How did he get there?
Nathan Lopez ran 15:21 at the MA state mert and won the past two outdoor 2-mile titles, with a 9:06 as a sophomore in 2021. He's not even on the list and Otis is
194 for a 15:43... Aaron Salhman got a 195 for running a minute faster at Woodward park last year, same age. Seems like some pretty obvious NY bias here. Am I missing something?? Can someone explain how Speed Ratings are given?
Woodward Park is not a fast course. Yeah, that better have been a hard ass course...
194 for a 15:43... Aaron Salhman got a 195 for running a minute faster at Woodward park last year, same age. Seems like some pretty obvious NY bias here. Am I missing something?? Can someone explain how Speed Ratings are given?
Times at different XC courses is meaningless, you know this. Obsession with RL times has done a disservice to understanding XC performances.
Spend a minute on tullyrunners to find his explanation of how speed ratings are done. It makes sense. Are they sometimes wrong? Of course, but not usually by very much.
The biggest factor when speed rating a race doesn’t work well seems to be bad weather conditions or lots of hills where lots of kids blow up so time gaps aren’t normal.
Also, his teammate Otis is ranked 78th on Dyestat nationally
How?????? This guy hasn't broken 16 how is he nationally ranked? Not hating but this guy's run 4:29, did he bribe them to put him on there? How did he get there?
The weird thing is is that he’s one of only 3 guys from New York that’s ranked here.
And they didn’t put Aaron Cantu in there. He wasn’t even mentioned here as a key NP guy here either. Weird. https://dyestatxcrankings.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=46052&do=news&news_id=645794 Having a 5th is enough but 6th and 7th guys are helpful in case a guy or 2 gets injured. You never know how many guys on a team get sick or injured. We can already see that it happened to one guy at NP. That’s right. Martinez, who is currently ranked. Very doubtful that he is returning this season. Based on the interviews, the odds are against it. If he doesn’t come back, and a Newbury Park nonsenior closes the gap on their #6 at nationals, it will be very exciting to see. Last year, Doshi didn’t close the gap on their #6 until nationals. In fact, it wasn’t even a given he would make varsity last year. It was gonna be him, Blunt who graduated, or Cantu getting the 7th spot.
Even Meylan ranked Otis much higher than McGinn here. McGinn almost didn’t make this list. The list of exclusively New York guys. Otis is only #12 here. I think both guys are much better than that now. http://tullyrunners.com/XC2022/TopXcBoys2022.htm
194 for a 15:43... Aaron Salhman got a 195 for running a minute faster at Woodward park last year, same age. Seems like some pretty obvious NY bias here. Am I missing something?? Can someone explain how Speed Ratings are given?
Woodward Park is not a fast course. Yeah, that better have been a hard ass course...
If you really want to spend the time analyzing it, also look at the speed ratings and times of the girls top runners and compare them to their other best races. I haven’t, but that probably explains what you are seeing with the speed rating.
194 for a 15:43... Aaron Salhman got a 195 for running a minute faster at Woodward park last year, same age. Seems like some pretty obvious NY bias here. Am I missing something?? Can someone explain how Speed Ratings are given?
The time is not even considered. It's based on the speed of the other runners, and the gap between runners. He was the fastest guy on the day by 40 seconds, and broke the old course record by 17 seconds (set by Peyton Geehrer, who ran 15:47 at Bowdoin Park and finished 42nd at NXN in an off-performance).
That said, his performance was a little overrated. Because it's early in the season, Bill Meylan merged all the races to get more consistent ratings. But McGinn raced in Race 1, at 9am, when it was low-60s. It got progressively hotter over the course of the day, and Races 5 and 6 (Corning was in Race 6) raced in 80-degree heat and full sun. If you rated the races individually, McGinn would likely have been 2-3 points lower (and the Corning team 2-3 points higher).
Also, his teammate Otis is ranked 78th on Dyestat nationally
How?????? This guy hasn't broken 16 how is he nationally ranked? Not hating but this guy's run 4:29, did he bribe them to put him on there? How did he get there?
Another possible reason of why he is on there is that FM has had good teams in the past, and because this year they do not have much depth, Dyestat assumes there will be a top 100 guy on the team to score low points for them to help this team out to potentially make NXN. Dyestat had this team at #2 in New York. FM has had legends in the past like Peyton Geehrer, Nick Ryan, Peter Ryan, Patrick Perry, Garrett Brennan, etc.
Another possible reason of why he is on there is that FM has had good teams in the past, and because this year they do not have much depth, Dyestat assumes there will be a top 100 guy on the team to score low points for them to help this team out to potentially make NXN. Dyestat had this team at #2 in New York. FM has had legends in the past like Peyton Geehrer, Nick Ryan, Peter Ryan, Patrick Perry, Garrett Brennan, etc.
FM has had legends in the past, sure.
No offense to Patrick Perry, but he isn't one of them.
No way you can say this guy is the best junior in the nation when there's Jason Parra who ran 14:19 on a full 3 mile in 95 degree heat and ran 8:54 during track. Then, there are the Parra twins Marcelo and Franco who are also much more proven than McGinn. I might be biased because I'm a junior but people are greatly underrating our class and I'm guessing we should have a very strong presence at the national level this year. Also speed ratings are of course skewed just as different peoples' views of XC performances always are. Only way to truly determine who's the fastest and how fast kids really are is through head to head competition.
The Parras are the fastest juniors hands down. Jason is the fastest of the 3 considering that he's very young and not quite as mature as the twins so he'll have another big jump.
Don’t forget Jimmy W from Union Catholic. Last track season he beat his superior teammate whose last name is Brosnan is some races. I heard that Brosnan was sick though. also can’t forget about Angel Sanchez and Adam Burlison from TX. Both broke 15 minutes. Sanchez should go to NXN as an individual this year. check out some results from juniors from this race don’t know what the course is like https://ks.milesplit.com/meets/497514-olathe-twilight-2022/results/831902#.Yx8yrSVOkWM Dev Doshi from NP also seems to be making progress