assuming both are flat road courses.
is there a calculator for this? most running pace calculators only go up to 42km.
assuming both are flat road courses.
is there a calculator for this? most running pace calculators only go up to 42km.
You could run under 8 hours. But it's really impossible to tell because 100k is so much longer than a Marathon. A lot of 2:45 runners might not even finish a 100k race.
Beyond Marathon these time calculators don't work anymore because there are too many other factors at play.
i've done some 100ks and a 126km before but they've all been trails so it's hard to extrapolate the times to a flat road course. So i expect to finish but want to get the pacing right or close to right.
If I put 5 min per km pace into a calculator it comes out at roughly 8 hours 30. I do most of my base/easy runs at about that pace, so i am familiar with it. Unless anybody has any better suggestions I think I will go out at that pace and see where it takes me. Perhaps if there is anybody else running that goes out a little faster towards 8 hour pace I will aim to stick with them.
aefsvec wrote:
i've done some 100ks and a 126km before but they've all been trails so it's hard to extrapolate the times to a flat road course. So i expect to finish but want to get the pacing right or close to right.
If I put 5 min per km pace into a calculator it comes out at roughly 8 hours 30. I do most of my base/easy runs at about that pace, so i am familiar with it. Unless anybody has any better suggestions I think I will go out at that pace and see where it takes me. Perhaps if there is anybody else running that goes out a little faster towards 8 hour pace I will aim to stick with them.
Plan on losing at least 20-30 minutes in the second half. Top runners get that down to 5-10 minutes.
50 minutes per 10k seems to slow in my opinion.
alright, 8 hours it is. If I crash and burn I'm blaming you. 2 weeks before this one I have a 70k trail race, sections of that are very flat so I will be able to test out the paces.
And I will blame the 70k trail race. That is way to close to the main event.
just the way the schedule worked out! one was a covid postponed race. i've done 2 100ks 2 weeks apart before, you're right it will probably impact the times a little. Actually the 70km is more important for me, it's Phu Kradeung in Thailand, a beautiful national park on a mountain plateau. I'm happy to give up 15 minutes or so on the 100k for that race.
Actually, if you are adeqatly prepared for a 100km run (not just survival fest), a 2:45 marathon shape can give you roughly a 7:30-7:35 hours ceiling. The problem is that most of the people running a 100k in 2:40-50-3:00 hours marathon shape are not preping enough for the specific requirements that a 100 km road race has.
With that in mind, I would say reduce your expectations by a bit and dont aim for your ceiling, without having the experience or training required to hit it. Anything between 7:40 and 8:00 hours would be a decent run and to be honest you wont feel any different no matter where in that range you finish.
If I were you, I would aim for a "sub 8" and go conservatively, hopefully everything goes well. This will be a 4:48 min/km avg pace. Start at NO FASTER than 4:40, ideally 4:45 and remember to not hurry, even if it feels easy at the beggingin. If you are still strong and you slowly fade to 5:00 min/km at the end, you will be in the sub 8 hours range. Good luck!
McMillan converts up to 100 miles. Gives ~8:05 as a prediction for you. But like others have said, probably reasonable to add on a little bit of time. 8:05 = 7:49 pace. I would start at 8:00-8:15 pace or so.
aefsvec wrote:
just the way the schedule worked out! one was a covid postponed race. i've done 2 100ks 2 weeks apart before, you're right it will probably impact the times a little. Actually the 70km is more important for me, it's Phu Kradeung in Thailand, a beautiful national park on a mountain plateau. I'm happy to give up 15 minutes or so on the 100k for that race.
Nice, I guess you live in Asia. So you have to adjust my prediction for the weather. I was assuming you run in Europe.
The calculator I use says you’ll be a DNF.
Dobyg wrote:
Actually, if you are adeqatly prepared for a 100km run (not just survival fest), a 2:45 marathon shape can give you roughly a 7:30-7:35 hours ceiling. The problem is that most of the people running a 100k in 2:40-50-3:00 hours marathon shape are not preping enough for the specific requirements that a 100 km road race has.
With that in mind, I would say reduce your expectations by a bit and dont aim for your ceiling, without having the experience or training required to hit it. Anything between 7:40 and 8:00 hours would be a decent run and to be honest you wont feel any different no matter where in that range you finish.
If I were you, I would aim for a "sub 8" and go conservatively, hopefully everything goes well. This will be a 4:48 min/km avg pace. Start at NO FASTER than 4:40, ideally 4:45 and remember to not hurry, even if it feels easy at the beggingin. If you are still strong and you slowly fade to 5:00 min/km at the end, you will be in the sub 8 hours range. Good luck!
100% agree with that but the race has to be in very good weather conditions.
yes humid, sweaty conditions, about 26-28C, but it's a night run, so I should be finished before the sun comes up. the runners running 13 14 15 hours will have to deal with the sun and 32-34C. a shame really though because this one is running alongside a big lake and I like to see the scenery. anyway i will try for something close to 8 hours.
I just ran a 100K in 7:53 a month ago. It was on a pretty flat course (2000ft elevation change) with some grass, gravel, and road. Non-technical so I wore Alphaflys. I haven't given an honest effort in the marathon yet but I predict my ceiling is probably around 2:40-2:45 so I would say 2:45 in the marathon and 8:00 in a flat, fast 100K are probably pretty similar.
aefsvec wrote:
assuming both are flat road courses.
is there a calculator for this? most running pace calculators only go up to 42km.
Couple of years back I ran a comfortable lumpy marathon in 2:43, 2 weeks later I ran a flat 100k in 7:38, I felt strong until 95kish and then pace slipped over 8min/mile
aefsvec wrote:
assuming both are flat road courses.
is there a calculator for this? most running pace calculators only go up to 42km.
Calculators like McMillan's are useless for nearly anything longer than a marathon.
Depending on how well trained you are and how well you can execute/ handle the fatigue/ fuel, 7:20:00 give or take would something to aim for, for upside potential
Dobyg wrote:
Actually, if you are adeqatly prepared for a 100km run (not just survival fest), a 2:45 marathon shape can give you roughly a 7:30-7:35 hours ceiling. The problem is that most of the people running a 100k in 2:40-50-3:00 hours marathon shape are not preping enough for the specific requirements that a 100 km road race has.
With that in mind, I would say reduce your expectations by a bit and dont aim for your ceiling, without having the experience or training required to hit it. Anything between 7:40 and 8:00 hours would be a decent run and to be honest you wont feel any different no matter where in that range you finish.
If I were you, I would aim for a "sub 8" and go conservatively, hopefully everything goes well. This will be a 4:48 min/km avg pace. Start at NO FASTER than 4:40, ideally 4:45 and remember to not hurry, even if it feels easy at the beggingin. If you are still strong and you slowly fade to 5:00 min/km at the end, you will be in the sub 8 hours range. Good luck!
+1