For experienced/serious marathoners, from sub-elites to pros, I generally see folks hitting their last hard long run workout 2-3 weeks prior to their target race. For sub-elites and elites it seems to trend closer to the 3 week mark where the last big effort is done before a taper of any kind. For the pros, though, I see/hear about many hitting a serious long workout only 2 weeks before race day before starting to think about a taper (source: nearly every pro marathoner on Strava plus what I've heard in podcasts e.g. Sweat Elite -- not just CJ Albertson). By "long hard workouts" I'm talking about 20+ mile runs at 10s slower than goal MP, 16+ mi at goal MP, 25 mile steady runs, and the like. Not your 10-15k volume track workouts.
At a glance it seems the obvious answer would be that professional athletes are, you guessed it, better able to handle hard training than non-professionals and therefore can handle greater volume and intensity closer to their target race because they can recover faster. I wonder, though, what supports the 12-14 day mark as good for a final effort from a physiological perspective?
Recalling what I learned in my junior year exercise physiology class in college ~8 years ago combined with cursory confirmatory googling last week when I thought about this, and speaking broadly, I understand that the body tangibly adapts to aerobic exercise stimulus at a cellular level over the course of 2-4 weeks. The average being the popular 3 week mark we're talking about. Red blood cells also take a few days to progenate in our bone marrow, but if the marrow on a cellular level only adapts to aerobic training after 2-3 weeks then adding a few days on top of that for RBC production seems to be cutting it close.
I'm rambling at this point but I wonder what you all think -- scientifically or anecdotally -- about the 2 or 3 week mark for your last hard marathon specific training effort?