10 laps under 10mins. Beyond Komen, was anyone capable of doing it?

I don't think Komen could have done that.

honestly I cant work out if I'm missing something really simple, or you have

10min for 10x laps = 4K at 12:30/5000m pace

Bekele could've done that, Cheptegei could've done that when in WR fitness, and maybe in the future Jakob or Barega could be capable of that (maybe a bit of a stretch)

also maybe not in current form, but at one point Kejelcha showed promise that he was on the path to be capable of this

Here's how the math works for Komen, assuming he's in his PR shape.

His best 5K (12:39.74) is two 2:39.5 kilometers away from his best 3K (7:20.67)

9:59.9 4K is one 2:39.2 kilometer away from his best 3K

Clearly he could do it

Woody kinkaid had a decent chance at it.

With the same logic Bekele is two 2:35.78 kilometers away between his best 3K and 5K

9:59.9 4K is one 2:34.21 kilometer away from his best 3K. Likely doable on a good day, but less likely than for Komen

Haile is two 2:37.14 kilometers away between his best 3K and 5K.

9:59.9 is 2:34.91 away from his 3K. possibly doable, but less likely than for for Bekele.

Cheptegei hasn't even run 7:30 3K to evaluate him.

That's about it.

I'd say:

Komen near 100% chance in his best shape.

Bekele 70%+

Geb 50%+

Cheptegei 30%+

Others - 0%

When Cheptegei was in 12:35 shape, he would have been under 7:25. After all, his 5K WR is 7:33 pace.

Wut wut wut? That’s not how pace vs distance works because average pace necessarily slows down with distance for anyone, so it is unreasonable to expect Komen to run the first 3K at his ridiculous PR and then continue to run even at 2:40 for one more km.

What you can however derive is that his 4K PR pace would have to be worse than a linear interpolation of his 3K and 5K PRs, ie the midpoint of 58.76s/lap (=440.67/7.5) and 60.78s/lap (=759.74/12.5), which yields a 4K pace no faster than 59.77s/lap; what that says is the math of decreasing pace with distance does not rule out a minute per lap of 10 laps, but does make it look pretty tight to the point of being unlikely because pace behaves concavely with distance, increasing (worsening) quickly first and then increasing more in a more mellowed manner.

We could do the above interpolation with his 2-mile PR pace of 59.48s/lap and 5K PR pace of 60.78s/lap interpolated linearly between the 2-mile distance and 5K distance, which yields 60.05s/lap, so my money would bet he probably wouldn’t have been able to do it.

If you do a power law regression between those two times (i.e. Time = C*Distance^b), I interpolate that he could have run 601.169 seconds over 4000 m, so just missing it. I find b=1.0491 and C=0.1000 (units of meters and seconds). The crossover point of 60 s/400 m is at 3844 m.

I do not disagree with you - there are different ways to interpolate and I didn't imply any specific method - just stated the differences. Obviously, I didn't imply he would continue 2K more after his crazy 3K PR.

That being said - Komen was much closer to sub 10min 4K than anyone else - especially that he peaked in both 3K and 5K simultaneously.

I did the same analysis for Bekele, using his PR's of 1500, 3000, 5000, and 10000. I predict that he could maintain 60s/400m for 3999 m, and could do 4000 m in 600.012 s. He has C = 1.0557 and b=0.0945.

This sounds like it would have been a pandemic-era thing. Maybe next time.

Komen maybe. Chep certainly when he did his 5K. Seems like Bekele could have, but only if he ran 1K to wind up. Jakob now ...

Did you do regression between 7:58 and 12:39 or between 7:20 and 12:39?

Bekele split 10:07 at 4K into his 5K WR... and then picked up the pace. Obviously he couldve done it.

You on the other hand seem to be insinuating Komen couldve more or less held his 3K pace for another K.

Bekele would've been closer than Komen (as shown by Komen's dropoff from 3K to 5K PR's compared to KB)

I am not sure I would apply equal weights to all 4 distances / PRs in regression. Some of those distances are rarely run and far from someone's best possible times. We assume the ideal case scenario for 4000m

Didn't Komen run a second sub-eight two mile where he was slightly over 4 on the first mile then dropped it below 4 on the second? If that is true, in that race, wouldn't his 4k potential be greater than in his first race, where he very slightly slowed over the second mile?

We can narrow this down to 4 candidates because there is a marked gap between these 4 and the rest - Cheptegei, Bekele, Geb and Komen. All under 12.40 and the next in line is Barega at 12.43.

I think the biggest question here is are we doing this with wavelight or not because that's the difference maker. 3 of these guys never had the benefit of it and the benefit over absolutely even pace is astronomical.

The reason I think all 4 could do it? Let's think of a 7.30 3000m time as clearly optimal. Komen can because at his best it's so far off his PR it's hard to believe he couldn't run a 2.29 km to close it out (he would have) and for the others who were 7.25 runners (Chep is too he just hasn't been in enough serious 3's), as 10000m WR holders they have the strength to get to 3000m at the number and hold that pace. Bekele has no issues - with the benefit of lights he would have run 12.34, Cheptegei strength is more than good enough especially with even running and Geb just had the wheels to make seemingly anything happen when he needed to so even if he needed to run 28 for the last 200 to do it I would never bet against that.

As someone started to do regressions, he's my suggestion how to approach it:

1. Establish the "human physiology" curve shape by regressing 1500m, 3000m, 5000m and 10000m world records in the aerobic range. You will derive the best theoretically possible 4000m time (4000max) from that non-linear curve

2. Map 3K and 5K PRs as % of best time for each runner. Say, Komen is 100.0% at 3000m and 100.6% at 5000m (the difference between his 12:39 and Cheptegei's WR). Then choose the middle point 100.3% of 4000max as his 4000m speed.

3. This method assumes that everyone's "ideal distance" is either 3K or 5K, but not 4K. If Komen, say, is uniquely built for 4K vs 3K or 5K, he could go higher than 100.3 midpoint.