NYSPHSAA State Champs predictions? (Very very early)

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3 years ago 07/31/2022 9:46pm EDT

Just my preliminary take, I could be very dead wrong come november...

Class A Boys:

Corning wins and Manlius repeats 2nd, I think Calhoun has a comeback year and takes 3rd. For the individual title I'd say it's a dead heat between Ashton Bange & Peter McMahon. There will be an intense chase pack fighting for third with guys like Solomon Holden Betts, Ethan Green and Logan Schaeffler right in the midst. Should be an exciting race. Manlius guys may also see a boost since VVS is their sectional course.

Class B Boys:

Burnt Hills will win yet again, with Pearl River and Vestal battling it out for second. Westhampton Beach has a strong 1-2 punch but little depth, and Pittsford Mendon got hit too hard by graduation to penetrate the top 3, let alone win their sectional meet (Pittsford Sutherland looking better this year). Maximus Haynia is definitely the favorite to win the individual title, although there is a solid chance Rounds from Burnt Hills takes second and splits Haynia from his teammate Trevor Hayes. Colin Brown & Liam Cody could also contend for top three imo.

Class C Boys:

Teamwise it's a true tossup, gun to my head I'd give it to Fonda-Fultonville, but Irvington and East Aurora will make it tight. I think Sam Ash from Saranac Lake narrowly wins individual title, but Alex Searle and James Tette are definitely in contention, maybe even Nate Lewis on a good day. Will probably see the slowest winning time of all of these races since I don't think any returners from this class had over a 170 speed rating in XC last year.

Class D Boys:

Basically a repeat of last year for the team podium, I'd say Tri-Valley wins but Arkport and maybe even Oakfield Alabama could win it if Tri-Valley falters. Adam Furman is the favorite to win but I'm definitely not counting out Colin Stafford, who ran the same 3200 time as Furman in outdoor. Pierce Young & Roan Kelly will have an epic battle for third I'm sure.

Thoughts on my (Very early) predictions?

3 years ago 07/31/2022 9:58pm EDT

re: QuandaleDingle

Personally I think the NYSPHSAA has lost a lot of its firepower on the individual side now that Gdog Roadster has graduated

3 years ago 07/31/2022 9:59pm EDT

re: WoodFiredOven

his powerful speed rating peak of 149 indeed

3 years ago 07/31/2022 10:10pm EDT

re: QuandaleDingle

QuandaleDingle wrote:
Just my preliminary take, I could be very dead wrong come november...
Class A Boys:
Corning wins and Manlius repeats 2nd, I think Calhoun has a comeback year and takes 3rd. For the individual title I'd say it's a dead heat between Ashton Bange & Peter McMahon. There will be an intense chase pack fighting for third with guys like Solomon Holden Betts, Ethan Green and Logan Schaeffler right in the midst. Should be an exciting race. Manlius guys may also see a boost since VVS is their sectional course.
Class B Boys:
Burnt Hills will win yet again, with Pearl River and Vestal battling it out for second. Westhampton Beach has a strong 1-2 punch but little depth, and Pittsford Mendon got hit too hard by graduation to penetrate the top 3, let alone win their sectional meet (Pittsford Sutherland looking better this year). Maximus Haynia is definitely the favorite to win the individual title, although there is a solid chance Rounds from Burnt Hills takes second and splits Haynia from his teammate Trevor Hayes. Colin Brown & Liam Cody could also contend for top three imo.
Class C Boys:
Teamwise it's a true tossup, gun to my head I'd give it to Fonda-Fultonville, but Irvington and East Aurora will make it tight. I think Sam Ash from Saranac Lake narrowly wins individual title, but Alex Searle and James Tette are definitely in contention, maybe even Nate Lewis on a good day. Will probably see the slowest winning time of all of these races since I don't think any returners from this class had over a 170 speed rating in XC last year.
Class D Boys:
Basically a repeat of last year for the team podium, I'd say Tri-Valley wins but Arkport and maybe even Oakfield Alabama could win it if Tri-Valley falters. Adam Furman is the favorite to win but I'm definitely not counting out Colin Stafford, who ran the same 3200 time as Furman in outdoor. Pierce Young & Roan Kelly will have an epic battle for third I'm sure.
Thoughts on my (Very early) predictions?

In Class A I think Saratoga may get third behind Corning and FM.

Saratoga will have a solid top 3 in Talarico (12), Bernd (11), and Pasek (incoming soph who moved up from not being varsity to a 9:44 3200).

Solid 4-7 and beyond-

Yuhasz - 12 - 10:12

Isenovski - 9 - 10:14

Dacey - 10 - 10:16

Mansfield - 11 - was their 4th runner at sections last year

Hemsworth - 12 - was their 5th runner at sections

In CHSAA St Anthony’s will win

3 years ago 07/31/2022 10:38pm EDT

re: Gueme

What team do you guys think will go to NXN besides Corning?

It’s gonna be a toss-up between St Anthony’s, FM, and Burnt Hills

3 years ago 07/31/2022 10:48pm EDT

re: Gueme

Burnt Hills is gonna be the #1 team in NY overall in 2023. They‘re a really good program and only loses 2 seniors after this year.

3 years ago 08/01/2022 12:08am EDT

re: QuandaleDingle

The best sophomore in the state is finally running for his high school this year. Don't be surprised if he wins class D this year.

He went 4:30 mile, 4:29 mile, 4:10 1500m, 9:09 3000m and 9:08 3000m during an abbreviated track season. Went 16:16 in a road 5k a week ago following his highest mileage week ever.

Just turned 15 three weeks ago.

It will be interesting at Bear Mountain for OCIAA and then at VVS for state.

3 years ago 08/14/2022 6:14pm EDT

re: Gueme

zippyraceresults.com

2022 Route 50 Mile

The ARE Race Results page.

Link:http://www.zippyraceresults.com/search...

Lots of burnt hills guys

3 years ago 08/14/2022 6:34pm EDT

re: Manbearpig15

Manbearpig15 wrote:
The best sophomore in the state is finally running for his high school this year. Don't be surprised if he wins class D this year.
He went 4:30 mile, 4:29 mile, 4:10 1500m, 9:09 3000m and 9:08 3000m during an abbreviated track season. Went 16:16 in a road 5k a week ago following his highest mileage week ever.
Just turned 15 three weeks ago.
It will be interesting at Bear Mountain for OCIAA and then at VVS for state.

tough to predict victory on that when there are guys in the class who can just about run 3200 in that time. CLass D is more stacked through the top 5 than I have ever seen.

3 years ago 08/14/2022 6:57pm EDT

re: WoodFiredOven

WoodFiredOven wrote:
Personally I think the NYSPHSAA has lost a lot of its firepower on the individual side now that Gdog Roadster has graduated

is Gdog ROadster Gitch Hayes?

3 years ago 08/14/2022 7:24pm EDT

re: high school xc coach

high school xc coach wrote:
Manbearpig15 wrote:
The best sophomore in the state is finally running for his high school this year. Don't be surprised if he wins class D this year.
He went 4:30 mile, 4:29 mile, 4:10 1500m, 9:09 3000m and 9:08 3000m during an abbreviated track season. Went 16:16 in a road 5k a week ago following his highest mileage week ever.
Just turned 15 three weeks ago.
It will be interesting at Bear Mountain for OCIAA and then at VVS for state.
tough to predict victory on that when there are guys in the class who can just about run 3200 in that time. CLass D is more stacked through the top 5 than I have ever seen.

There's two good dudes in Class D. I'm just saying don't be surprised if there's a little blonde kid chasing them into the finish.

3 years ago 08/14/2022 8:14pm EDT

re: Manbearpig15

Manbearpig15 wrote:
high school xc coach wrote:
tough to predict victory on that when there are guys in the class who can just about run 3200 in that time. CLass D is more stacked through the top 5 than I have ever seen.
There's two good dudes in Class D. I'm just saying don't be surprised if there's a little blonde kid chasing them into the finish.

there are three guys who have run around either 915 or 415 or both and another guy with a 935 in the steeple. your guy has his work cut out for him.

3 years ago 08/14/2022 8:18pm EDT

re: QuandaleDingle

3 years ago 08/14/2022 8:20pm EDT

re: QuandaleDingle

Northport ran 8:00 for 4x8 with only one senior. They’re usually better in track tho

3 years ago 08/14/2022 8:42pm EDT

re: Gueme

Gueme wrote:
QuandaleDingle wrote:
Just my preliminary take, I could be very dead wrong come november...
Class A Boys:
Corning wins and Manlius repeats 2nd, I think Calhoun has a comeback year and takes 3rd. For the individual title I'd say it's a dead heat between Ashton Bange & Peter McMahon. There will be an intense chase pack fighting for third with guys like Solomon Holden Betts, Ethan Green and Logan Schaeffler right in the midst. Should be an exciting race. Manlius guys may also see a boost since VVS is their sectional course.
Class B Boys:
Burnt Hills will win yet again, with Pearl River and Vestal battling it out for second. Westhampton Beach has a strong 1-2 punch but little depth, and Pittsford Mendon got hit too hard by graduation to penetrate the top 3, let alone win their sectional meet (Pittsford Sutherland looking better this year). Maximus Haynia is definitely the favorite to win the individual title, although there is a solid chance Rounds from Burnt Hills takes second and splits Haynia from his teammate Trevor Hayes. Colin Brown & Liam Cody could also contend for top three imo.
Class C Boys:
Teamwise it's a true tossup, gun to my head I'd give it to Fonda-Fultonville, but Irvington and East Aurora will make it tight. I think Sam Ash from Saranac Lake narrowly wins individual title, but Alex Searle and James Tette are definitely in contention, maybe even Nate Lewis on a good day. Will probably see the slowest winning time of all of these races since I don't think any returners from this class had over a 170 speed rating in XC last year.
Class D Boys:
Basically a repeat of last year for the team podium, I'd say Tri-Valley wins but Arkport and maybe even Oakfield Alabama could win it if Tri-Valley falters. Adam Furman is the favorite to win but I'm definitely not counting out Colin Stafford, who ran the same 3200 time as Furman in outdoor. Pierce Young & Roan Kelly will have an epic battle for third I'm sure.
Thoughts on my (Very early) predictions?
In Class A I think Saratoga may get third behind Corning and FM.

Saratoga will beat FM.

FM has a really good 1-2, but Perry is NOT his brother and their back-end guys are really weak. With as much depth as Saratoga has coming in, along with equivalent high-level coaching... Saratoga will be better.

3 years ago 08/14/2022 8:48pm EDT

re: Gueme

Gueme wrote:
What team do you guys think will go to NXN besides Corning?
It’s gonna be a toss-up between St Anthony’s, FM, and Burnt Hills

Throw Saratoga in the mix too. They are gonna shock a lot of people with the depth that they have.

3 years ago 08/14/2022 9:25pm EDT

re: New York XC

New York XC wrote:
Gueme wrote:
In Class A I think Saratoga may get third behind Corning and FM.
Saratoga will beat FM.
FM has a really good 1-2, but Perry is NOT his brother and their back-end guys are really weak. With as much depth as Saratoga has coming in, along with equivalent high-level coaching... Saratoga will be better.

Perry ran a 10:03 3200 in the indoor so he’s capable of being up there with the top 2. In fact, he actually made their top 7 as a freshman.
Dereszynski and Perry were able to stick with the top 2 in some races last year but they were inconsistent throughout the season.

Also, there are lots of incoming sophs and juniors that could fill the #5 spot.

It’s gonna be about if they are able to peak when it counts. state and NXR (and NXN if they make it).

McGinn went from a 18:53/5:05 as a freshman to a 16:39 as a sophomore.

Just goes to show that people in this program can pop out of nowhere.

3 years ago 08/15/2022 12:02am EDT

re: high school xc coach

high school xc coach wrote:
Manbearpig15 wrote:
There's two good dudes in Class D. I'm just saying don't be surprised if there's a little blonde kid chasing them into the finish.
there are three guys who have run around either 915 or 415 or both and another guy with a 935 in the steeple. your guy has his work cut out for him.

I guess that's why they run the races. My kid is putting in the miles this summer. He's one bump in fitness away from being a contender to being the man.

3 years ago 08/15/2022 11:05pm EDT

re: New York XC

New York XC wrote:
Gueme wrote:
In Class A I think Saratoga may get third behind Corning and FM.
Saratoga will beat FM.
FM has a really good 1-2, but Perry is NOT his brother and their back-end guys are really weak. With as much depth as Saratoga has coming in, along with equivalent high-level coaching... Saratoga will be better.

There are people who won’t make top 7 for Saratoga but would make FM’s top 7

3 years ago 08/15/2022 11:52pm EDT

re: Restrimboro

Restrimboro wrote:
New York XC wrote:
Saratoga will beat FM.
FM has a really good 1-2, but Perry is NOT his brother and their back-end guys are really weak. With as much depth as Saratoga has coming in, along with equivalent high-level coaching... Saratoga will be better.
There are people who won’t make top 7 for Saratoga but would make FM’s top 7

And yet they will still lose to them. FM is good when it counts, and as long as they return SOMETHING of a team (which they do this year), they will be on that plane to Portland. I’ve seen it happen a million times; every year since NXN was introduced pretty much.

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