Cheptegei/Barega/Kiplimo... TERRIBLE MISTAKE --- !!!!

xcfan2233 wrote:

OozmaKappa wrote:

Kiplimo wasnt even in this circus.

And yeah this was a fraudulent crapshoot. Either everyone just happened to coincidentally have the worst day off ever, or nobody wanted to win. Because you dont run 13 pace and let a kicker position themselves at the front with less than 2 laps to go. Barega and Cheptegei know this first hand as this positioning was literally the only thing that determined what medals they got in tokyo. Chep got silver in the 10 because he had bad positioning into the bell lap. Then he secured good positioning in the bell lap of the 5k and he won gold. The fact Chep and Barega werent even vying for positioning in that last 1k tells me they either knew they were out of it or they had a terrible strategy.

Lol, OozmaKappa coming out of a 3 month hiatus to hate on Jakob again, have to respect the hustle.

The race was also 91 degrees + sunny and Jakob just ripped them apart over that last 800m. He is simply better than them, nothing to do with positioning or trying hard. 3:59 last 1600 with a 53 close and 58 penultimate lap in 90+ degrees will burn off pretty much anyone in history minus a few of the greats. And he looked like he had more in there if he was pushed.

Jakob will be near unbeatable in championship 5,000s unless Cheptegei can somehow find his 12:35 form again and break him before the final lap.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

ModeQuestion wrote:

Very interesting take I didn't know how fast was that last 1600.

I still got to ask though...up until then I think they were running around 13:20 pace. Was it really all they could give ?

In a 5,000, the person who pushes the 4th Kilometer (and before) close to all out invariably serves as a sacrificial lamb and loses. That is unless they are hugely better than the field. It is too grueling an event with margins too thin for an athlete to win crushing the pace like that.

The last athlete capable of it was the GOAT Kenenisa Bekele. He did it in 2008 running 12:57 (7:35 last 3K, 4:57 last 2000, 2:25 last K). The field then was not at this year's level with Eliud Kipchoge (12:50s shape), Edwin Soi (12:55 shape), and then a few 13-flat type guys. Bekele was in world record shape and at the peak of his powers (8:04i, 26:25 10K, 10 second victory at the Golden League Final).

Good as Cheptegei is, he is at most 5-15 seconds better in a time trial than a large group including Jakob, Kimeli, Krop, Barega, Kejelcha, Grant, Mo Ahmed and go on down the line. So no one athlete is going to do it alone. After Oscar Chelimo won the heat, there's no way they could ask him to be a sacrificial lamb. The Kenyan coaches might have ideas of pushing it faster, but Krop knew that the race was shaping up well for him given that he has great speed. A fast pace benefitted Kimeli, but he knew pushing it near his limit would just mean he'd have no kick. He opted to run reasonably slow but not down to a crawl. Ebenyo should be * that * guy to take the fall, but he was unwilling to sacrifice himself. The Ethiopians can't ask Edris to sacrifice himself, given that a crawling pace might give him a chance and his pedigree. Barega had reason to believe a slower pace might be good for him, but this was just a disastrous Champs for him. Kejelcha was thus pretty much alone, and he has never been able to kick well after pushing the pace. So, the game theory and calculus really didn't work well for anyone.

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

ModeQuestion wrote:

Very interesting take I didn't know how fast was that last 1600.

I still got to ask though...up until then I think they were running around 13:20 pace. Was it really all they could give ?

In a 5,000, the person who pushes the 4th Kilometer (and before) close to all out invariably serves as a sacrificial lamb and loses. That is unless they are hugely better than the field. It is too grueling an event with margins too thin for an athlete to win crushing the pace like that.

The last athlete capable of it was the GOAT Kenenisa Bekele. He did it in 2008 running 12:57 (7:35 last 3K, 4:57 last 2000, 2:25 last K). The field then was not at this year's level with Eliud Kipchoge (12:50s shape), Edwin Soi (12:55 shape), and then a few 13-flat type guys. Bekele was in world record shape and at the peak of his powers (8:04i, 26:25 10K, 10 second victory at the Golden League Final).

Good as Cheptegei is, he is at most 5-15 seconds better in a time trial than a large group including Jakob, Kimeli, Krop, Barega, Kejelcha, Grant, Mo Ahmed and go on down the line. So no one athlete is going to do it alone. After Oscar Chelimo won the heat, there's no way they could ask him to be a sacrificial lamb. The Kenyan coaches might have ideas of pushing it faster, but Krop knew that the race was shaping up well for him given that he has great speed. A fast pace benefitted Kimeli, but he knew pushing it near his limit would just mean he'd have no kick. He opted to run reasonably slow but not down to a crawl. Ebenyo should be * that * guy to take the fall, but he was unwilling to sacrifice himself. The Ethiopians can't ask Edris to sacrifice himself, given that a crawling pace might give him a chance and his pedigree. Barega had reason to believe a slower pace might be good for him, but this was just a disastrous Champs for him. Kejelcha was thus pretty much alone, and he has never been able to kick well after pushing the pace. So, the game theory and calculus really didn't work well for anyone.

xcfan2233 wrote:

THOUGHTSLEADER wrote:

In a 5,000, the person who pushes the 4th Kilometer (and before) close to all out invariably serves as a sacrificial lamb and loses. That is unless they are hugely better than the field. It is too grueling an event with margins too thin for an athlete to win crushing the pace like that.

The last athlete capable of it was the GOAT Kenenisa Bekele. He did it in 2008 running 12:57 (7:35 last 3K, 4:57 last 2000, 2:25 last K). The field then was not at this year's level with Eliud Kipchoge (12:50s shape), Edwin Soi (12:55 shape), and then a few 13-flat type guys. Bekele was in world record shape and at the peak of his powers (8:04i, 26:25 10K, 10 second victory at the Golden League Final).

Good as Cheptegei is, he is at most 5-15 seconds better in a time trial than a large group including Jakob, Kimeli, Krop, Barega, Kejelcha, Grant, Mo Ahmed and go on down the line. So no one athlete is going to do it alone. After Oscar Chelimo won the heat, there's no way they could ask him to be a sacrificial lamb. The Kenyan coaches might have ideas of pushing it faster, but Krop knew that the race was shaping up well for him given that he has great speed. A fast pace benefitted Kimeli, but he knew pushing it near his limit would just mean he'd have no kick. He opted to run reasonably slow but not down to a crawl. Ebenyo should be * that * guy to take the fall, but he was unwilling to sacrifice himself. The Ethiopians can't ask Edris to sacrifice himself, given that a crawling pace might give him a chance and his pedigree. Barega had reason to believe a slower pace might be good for him, but this was just a disastrous Champs for him. Kejelcha was thus pretty much alone, and he has never been able to kick well after pushing the pace. So, the game theory and calculus really didn't work well for anyone.

Agree with this. 2023 Worlds will be fascinating to see how people approach this 5,000m, now that Jakob has put a stake in the ground for this event. You simply cannot let Jakob control from 1,000m out in a moderate to slow race, he will progressively squeeze the pace over the final 800m and nobody can match.

Your best best is probably a fartlek style race, similar to '21 Ethiopian trials 10,000m when they still went 26:45. Need to make him uncomfortable and try and zap some of the sting from his finish. Yo-yo the pace between 61 & 67 and then pray. The Ugandan's are probably the best best here if Kiplimo runs, especially considering their XC prowess with all the surging.