NESCAC 2022 XC Thread

Are Aidan Ryan and Elias Lindgren returning this fall? If so, Williams wins by a mile. If they aren't, Williams still wins but by less of a massive margin. Middlebury might have a VERY slim chance of getting them.

Individually, Tyler Morris wins it all.

Aidan Ryan is transferring to University of Washington, like many other people

Ryan is no longer on the roster but Lindgren is still there, as well as Tuohy-Gaydos whose run 29:47 and 14:00. They have an outstanding incoming class including 2nd place at Nationals in the steeplechase, 9:01 for 3k steeple.

Based on last year's NESCAC XC champs, here is where everyone would end up with graduations.

Williams- 51

Middlebury- 91

Colby- 107

Bates- 193

Conn- 212

Tufts- 226

Amherst- 246

Hamilton- 268

Couple of caveats- This is based on TFRRS data, and I eliminated all runners listed as seniors in 2021, and then anyone who has run 4 seasons. Some of those runners may still run their 5th season this year if they didn't graduate yet. I have no way of knowing wether they will be back or not until final rosters are posted (Williams is the only one who has posted so far). I also did not include any incoming freshman or transfers. I will do that in another post. But there are some big names coming into the NESCAC next year.

Wesleyan?

For the above data, I assumed the following. If you know any of these runners are indeed returning, or leaving, please let everyone know.

Williams- At 51 they actually have the same score they had in the race since they don't lose any runners. Yes, Ryan graduated, but he didn't finish the Nescac League course, so all 7 of the Williams runners will be back. They will be lead by Lindgren and Tuohy who were both AA in the 5k and 10k and they should contend with Morris for the individual title. In fact, they were pretty young last year with several of their runners as freshman or sophomores. They also get back Ratcliffe who was apparently hurt or abroad last XC season. He was a 14:40 5k runner last spring so he will make an impact even before any recruits (which Williams always gets).

Middlebury- Originally I thought last year's runner up Kessler was gone, but apparently he is coming back for XC. Throw in frosh superstar Donahue and Grand, Class, Goddard, and Lorenze, and they have a bunch returning. In fact the only one they apparently lose is Mcgaugh, but he was 10th last year so that will hurt them. Word is that they have some solid recruits, but I will post that next.

Colby- Superstar Morris returns and is of course the favorite to repeat, but their next two finishers of Frick and Mellor seem to be gone. The good news is that Boyle, Carcic, Gleason, and Potter were all frosh last year, so they are a VERY young team whom you would expect would get better after a year. So even though they lose some solid runners, they are a still a top 3 contender.

Bates- From what I can tell, their low stick of Donahue is gone. So is their number 5 of Miescanski. But they return Dining, Kartsonis, Farrington, Thoman, and Kering. That puts them at 193 points which is solidly in 4th. They will need to make some serious improvements, or get some good recruits to catch Colby and in the top 3.

Conn College-The camels look to be back and solid this year. Both Love and Carter are returning. Love was AA in the 10k this year, and Carter was 9th at this meet last year. They lose their number 3 in Pollock, and number 5 in Vazquez, but Habtegebriel, Walewkski, and Natarnicola all return. This puts them within shouting distance of Bates for 4th place and if they get a solid recruit or 2, they could contend for a podium spot.

Tufts- Wagude had a great Nescac run last year and came in 5th. But it appears that Tufts loses Gatti, O'sullivan, and Harmon who were their next 3. That leaves Musyoka, Printy, Giersc, and Oaks. They are all fairly young, so there is a lot of room for improvement and they could be a sleeper team.

Amherst- I have high hopes for Amherst this year, but they need a lot of help from their new recruits. From what I can tell, their top 3 runners of Daily, Massey, and Sarathy are all gone. That leaves Spiva, Levin, Flume, Davis, and Martin. They are young, but I wouldn't expect them to stay at this 7th spot if they get the class they are hoping to.

Please let me know your thoughts and if any of the assumptions above are incorrect. I'll work on the recruits next, but not every team has posted yet.

Sorry, I got a little lazy. Wesleyan came in 10th in last years meet, and I don't have high hopes for this season. They get back Rogers who was their low stick, but they those their next 3 in Ratner, Aronow, and Ross. That leaves Shapiro, Keith, Ward, and Neveu to pick up the slack, but right now, they are at 321 which will be a tough climb with their 2-4 runners graduating.

Bates' new men's coach only recruited sprinters and middle distance runners. No recruits under 10:20 for 3200 or under 4:35 for 1600.

Sad to see a once proud cross country team being killed.

Bowdoin, Wesleyan, Trinity? Also conn is getting a transfer from bucknell. Really solid prs. Could be the difference maker between 5th and top 3

An embarrassing error in the women’s regional rankings released today by USTFCCA. The Tufts women are ranked #2 in the East, with accompanying verbiage saying that the Jumbos return their entire top seven. In fact, their top two, both All-Americans, have graduated and are not listed on the TFRRS roster.

Nescac being slept on pretty heavily in the national poll. Middlebury at 15 after placing 13th last year and returning everyone is disrespectful. Teams like Conn, Colby, Tufts, and Bates all look to have strong returning squads and will likely improve on their initial rankings. Will be interesting to see if Amherst can repeat their climb in the rankings similar to last year.

The only really glaring underranking is Conn College, who deserved to be selected for nationals over WPI last year and adds a good transfer from Bucknell. Otherwise, Middlebury/Colby/Bates are ranked slightly low, but not by more than a couple of places. And Williams, who you didn’t mention, should be higher than #4.

But Tufts is way too high at #21, after finishing 30th last year, graduating four of their top five, and having no returner under 15:10 in track. There’s no way they should be ranked ahead of teams like RPI and Johns Hopkins.

Someone talked about conn already, but forgot to mention Chris verstandig (25:30 8k pr, who would trade off with stewie pollock as conns #3 last year). They also bring a new transfer in from bucknell as someone already said, Brendan mellit (15:00 5k pr), who probably looks to be comparable to verstandig. I’m pretty sure pollock is the only one on their top 7 that graduated (25:30 8k, finished 18th at nescacs last year). So add in top runners love and Carter, verstandig and mellit, and Matt scardigno (9:30 3k steeple), kaleb habetegebrial (26:30 8k) or max notarnicola (3:57 1500) look to battle for the 5th spot. Also seems like they got a chip on their shoulder, missing NCAAs last year despite only losing to Amherst by 3 points (who qualified)

isn't pollock returning to conn for the fall for a 5th year? he probably had eligibility leftover. If he returns then the camels are serious contenders

Contenders for what? I just don't see them having the firepower to compete with Williams, Middlebury or Colby. I certainly think CC is a top 4 team, but I also think Amherst, with their recruits, might put in a serious challenge for that spot as well. After that, it falls off with Tufts being depleted and Bates really struggling so they certainly will be in the top 5.

What does Colby have besides Tyler Morris???

Loss: Ewan Frick (16th at NESCAC) graduated, Ben Mellor (17th at NESCAC) graduated. Keegan Gleason transferred from Colby and was one of

Returners: Quinn Potter was in their Top 7 last fall and based on track PRs should be their #2 (14:48 5k this past spring. Liam Carcich will factor again in Colby Top5, but only ran 15:47 in the spring. James Boyle (15:20 Spring ‘22) returns after being in their Top 5 last fall.

I think compared to Conn, who has Love, Carter, and a strong transfer from Bucknell, they should put 3 in before Colby’s 2 and have a slight advantage on the mules. Though I think at the end of the day, it will be a very tight battle between Colby and Conn for 3rd at NESCAC.

Willams will win easy, Midd takes second, Conn vs Colby for 3rd and 4th. Tufts can factor if they pull their stuff together.

Amherst has a lot of young talent, but sadly Amherst has been a graveyard for talent the last few years. What ever happened to Bill Masey? Owen Daily? as well as others over the years…It hasn’t been the same since Clark Ricciardeli era. Their incoming first years are good, but it’s a tall order to have them lead a squad to Top 4 in the NESCAC during the first few months of their college careers.

Bates had an abysmal spring due to COVID and apparent coaching issues. Not sure they can right the ship immediately, but they always have a lot of bodies and hopefully can pull it all together.

I agree that CC will be in the battle for 3rd with Colby and Amherst. I don't see any of those 3 coming close to Middlebury or Williams for the top 2 spots. I would say that its certainly Williams to lose, but Midd has some serious new Freshman, and with Kessler and Donahue returning, they could be pretty solid. I saw in another thread that Donahue is hurt, which if true would be a big blow to them, but they are still strong 10 deep. As for Colby, Morris is certainly the low stick. Boyle and Carcich are young, but one would assume they will get stronger. If Gleason is gone, that does change things up a bit and they really only have one new first year in Boyden who could place in the top 20 to help them out. CC of course has Carter and Love. I agree they will come in after Morris, and probably before Colby's 2nd. But they are both a bit streaky so they could come in 5th and 6th or 9th and 10th. If its the latter, they won't be that far in front of Colby's #2, and if Tyler wins or comes in top 3, the combined 1-2 score is going to be pretty close. Which means its up to the 3,4,5 runners. I agree that Mellitt from Bucknell has some potential, but his 15:03 PR, 4:33 mile and 8:55 3000 are not super strong. Colby's Freshman ran a 4:20 mile and 9:29 3200 in HS and I would say those two times match up pretty nicely with the Frosh being a bit faster, but this is an 8k so the upper classman may have the advantage. As for the 4 and 5 at both of these schools, its anyone guess, but CC is just not that deep, and their frosh class has no one under 10:10 in the 3200 this year. Like I said, with Gleason gone, its a little tighter. I'd still give it to Colby, but I could also see Conn take it.

But I can't count out Amherst. Yes they have destroyed more careers than I care to mention, but having two 1st years at 9:11 is pretty good. It's true they don't have too many strong returners, but they have 2 more 4:20 1st years as well. Thats a lot of speed and talent, but to you point, they are young. They certainly have the potential to be a top 3 team if they all progress through the season, don't get hurt, and all show up at Nescacs. But that is A LOT of "ifs" so I wouldn't put them in front of CC, but they certainly can play dark horse for a podium spot if the back end of CC falls asleep.

I wasn't saying they'd contend to win, but i was saying if conn really is returning their entire top 7 then they would contend for a top 3 spot

Donahue is returning from injury -

strava.com

Comeback season - Drew D.'s 2.7 mi run

3 min run, 30 sec walk. Felt good to be back on the feet for the first time in a while. Turns out initial injury was unnoticed, small stress fracture back in March so that’s chill. Joints got wonky after coming back too early...

Link:www.strava.com/activities/7704582775

Agree that Mellitt's track times are not super strong, but he was 22nd at the Patriot League XC champs, right between Mitchell Rome of Navy (14:35 outdoors) and Bradford DeMassa of Lehigh (14:47 outdoors).