Women's 1500m Prediction Thread

No.

Thanks for the contribution. Definitely predicting with American goggles on Sinclaire for 3rd. On form, Meshesha/Hull are right there and on credentials you'd have to give Muir a nice edge and Hailu a slight one. Muir has looked better than the rest of the season thusfar.

For me it depends massively on what kind of race it is.

The unchangeable: Faith gold.

All out Tseguy from the front style race and I put Meshesha for bronze behind Faith and Gudaf. I don't see Johnson running 3:55 honestly. Could eat my words, but I think her ceiling this year is the 3:57/3:56 range, preferably run with a negative split (like Eugene with the 60s last lap). The hotter it is from the gun the more I think Johnson and Muir will struggle. Johnson is very much an 800/15 runner and historically all the sub 3:56 types have had solid or better 3k-5k chops. Discounting Soviet era eastern bloc/90s China, the sub 3:56 athletes in history and their 3k/5k chops:

Dibaba 14:15

Kipyegon 14:30

Hassan 14:22

Muir 8:26i/14:48i

Houlihan** 14:23

Boulmerka 8:56

It is a very small list with a lot of controversy. Sub 3:56 is rarified air. Boulmerka is the only one not with a world class 3k or 5k. However outside of that stunning 3:55 in Barcelona 92 never broke 4:00 once in her whole career, and went sub 4:02 only 4 times. Given Algeria's anti doping relationship it is hard to not raise an eyebrow.

So for Sinclaire to go sub 3:56 she has to do what only 6 women have ever done before,with a training style (pure 8/15) that has only worked once in highly suspect circumstances. To do it would be historical. It would be awesome if she did and a stunning rebound story, but the card deck of history is stacked against her. I think she needs a couple more years of development before she has her best shot at it (she is still quite young).

Muir has rebounded well but does not have the base she has has in past years due to 3 months of injury. Meshesha has come through with a 3:57 from the front FTW. Give her Tseguy to chase in a hot, even race and she could go 3:55 ish.

In a slower race (won in 3:56-4:01) it is between Johnson and Muir for that bronze. If Tseguy gets her timing wrong in a slow race she could be vulnerable to either IMO.

Behind Faith, it will be a fascinating race. If it isn't fast positioning and luck will be everything.

Also remember 2011 - Uceny, Obiri, and Jamal, three of the favorites all getting tangled with each other leading to Simpson England and Rodriguez medalling. Sh!t3 happens in the 1500.

In the predictions contest I had :

1. Kipyegon

2. Tsegay

3. Meshesha

And I will hold on to that.

It´s hard enough to get it right regarding the first three so I won´t predict the next places but I think Muir, Hailu and Johnson could be the next (not sure of the order).

Predictions: Bumper cars, at least one DQ, only three under 4:00, two surprise medalists.

Faith: Gold

Silver and Bronze: toss up between Tsegay and Muir. If you are going to force me to pick then Tsegay for silver.

You read it here first! 😁

It will be an absolute shocker if Kipyegon does not win gold.

I expect Sinclair to try to contend, but get left behind in the big move.

Kipyegon, Tsegay, then 3rd is a toss up... Muir could surprise

This is pretty convincing stuff. I really have no idea of Sinclaire's 3K/5K capabilities and she's never run them seriously. Muir I think you could argue is more of an 800/1500 type. She also is in a system that runs 6 day per week/ 45-50 mpw. Not exactly BTC. That's not to say that she doesn't/can't run fast at the distances above 3,000 (which she has).

Sinclaire didn't do well in Jerry's system, but I do suspect she could run a much improved 3,000 were she to run it tomorrow. Much like how Kate Grace still ran good 1500s/miles last year despite getting away from BTC. Pete Julian is training her somewhere in the middle (not with Hull nor Rogers). I am with you that 3:55 requires huge talent and at the very least great natural endurance proclivities (Kipyegon possesses this). Is it possible Sinclaire is along the lines of Muir in terms of natural talent, but just hasn't put it together before this season, and hasn't tried the distances meaningfully? She's solid at the 800, but it's not like she's an obvious 1:57/3:58 type runner.

Also of note the Ethiopian trio is presenting a united, hunky-dory front ahead of the Final. On Tsegays IG Story it’s all smiles amongst the three with “Love my Fam.” We’ll see as she was visibly ticked at Hailu’s not according-to-plan slow pace in the semis. That definitely needs to be smoothed over or it will quickly be every woman for herself.

100%. Not saying she can't run 3:55, but she would need to be much more of an 800m threat than either last year (1:59.9) or this year (2:02) indicates AND also be able to lop maybe 35-40s off her 3k PB. I think she is worth a 1:58 and sub 8:50 for sure, but not sure if enough *YET* to break down that door.

Still, so long as it isn't an all out barn burner I still favour her for bronze over most the field.

I'm going to go for Hull to get 3rd, it's unbelievable that the "slowest" PB in the race is 4.00.34 the standard in the final is exceptional.

Also, top of my wish list for Budapest is for everyone to be healthy and stable.

I want Purrier to have a clean build up (yet to happen for a major champs) and Johnson to replicate her form.

I want GDS to be healthy and not in the middle of another transition.

I want Sifan and Gudaf to run the 1500 (and running it fresh).

I want Muir to not get another stress fracture.

None of that is too much to ask for is it?

We have such a ridiculously stacked 1500m talent pool yet it is so hard to get everyone racing each other at the same track in good shape. I know that's the nature of the sport, but my God imagine the race if we get all that on one track.

Kipyegon/Tsegay will run away with the first two medals. Third medal will go to whomever runs smartest.

We have it in the men's 1500.

Actually agree with this too, Hull is a dark horse and she will want to avenge Ollie.

1. Faith Kipyegon 3:52.7
2. Gudaf Tsegay 3:54.0 SB
3. Hirut Meshesha 3:55.5 PB
4. Laura Muir 3:56.3 SB
5. Sinclaire Johnson 3:57.2 PB
6. Jessica Hull 3:57.6 PB
7. Freweyni Hailu 3:57.6 SB
8. Georgia Griffith 3:59.9 PB
9. Sofia Ennaoui 4:01.1 SB
10. Winnie Nanyondo 4:02.1
11. Cory Ann McGee 4:02.2
12. Winny Chebet 4:02.8 SB
13. Marta Perez 4:03.9 SB
400 - Hailu 1:03.1
800 - Tsegay 2:05.7
1200 - Tsegay 3:07.9
1500 - Kipyegon 3:52.7

Top 4 separate in the 3rd lap. Kipyegon unloads with 200 to go and like you said, it’s curtains. Muir relatively struggles in the last 250 but hangs on for a big SB. Johnson outkicks the rest of the field for 5th and US #5 all-time.

Sinclaire's confidence should have gotten a boost from her great semi. Hopefully she runs the final as assertively. 20% chance she nips a bronze, but fifth or sixth seems most likely. Cory behind that.

Called it.