Don't get me wrong I am a huge Katelyn Tuohy fan and happy she won her first NCAA title, but this is a big ask of the newly crowned champ. Here's a look at the big names:
Cranny, Kelati, Schweizer, Henes, Fraser, Rogers, O'Keefe, Infeld, Morgan, Norris, Purrier.
Cranny ran 14:33 indoors, and 30:14 outdoors so even though she pulled out of the 10k champs I have a feeling she will be ready. She has such a huge margin of error that even if she is off I doubt she will be in danger of missing the team. I don't think that she will get the win though.
Kelati is interesting, because she blitzed some insanely fast road races then seems to not quite reach that level on the track. She could only manage fifth at USA 10ks, but bounced back to run 14:57 recently so the fitness is clearly there. If she has a mediocre day I still think she will be top 6, good day she could sneak in for third.
Schweizer is the one to beat IMO. She is entered in the 1500 as well, but I doubt she will want to do the 1500/10k at worlds so she might just run the prelim of the 1500 to shake her legs out. She outkicked Monson at USAs to win the 10k champs in 30:49 (a woman who just ran 14:31 in the 5k), ran a recent 4 flat 1500, and, oh yeah, closed the last 5k of the 10k sub 15.
Henes recently ran 15:07 and 9:18 (two mile), and ran a 4:07 1500. I think she is right on par with Tuohy (4:06 and solo 15:14 PBs) and its a tossup between the two.
Fraser recently ran 15:05 and is finally closing back in on the form of the season where she went 14:48 indoors. If Tuohy has a GREAT day she could beat her, but I put the odds 70% Fraser 30% Tuohy.
Purrier I am confident will make the 1500 team, so I don't think she will start the 5k.
I don't think Norris will make the 1500, thus she will start the 5k, but she has been off of form as of late.
Rogers, Infeld, and Morgan have all run well recently, with Rogers (15:05) making the 10k team, Infeld narrowly missing (and running 15:0x), and Morgan running 4:04. Heck even O'Keefe is making huge strides, after a 15:30 start to the season she just ran 15:05.
So, long story short, I don't think she will make the team. There are so many big names and I think Tuohy can contend but a team birth is a big ask.