How fast will Lex Young and Colin Sahlman run at the Sound Running meet this Friday?
Sahlman is trying to attack the 3:40 mark for 1500, he's in a field with mostly 3:38-3:44 runners. Sahlman ran 3:46 for 1500m last year and his 3:58 mile this year is equivalent to ~3:41.
My guess is that Sahlman breaks 3:40 if the conditions are ok (temps are projected to be in the low 70s come race time (~6pm PT) and wind is around 6mph), and if the pace goes out quick (57-58 through the first 400m). Sahlman might hang in the middle of the pack through the first half of the race and sprint to the finish. Sub 3:39 would be an incredible effort and anything slower than 3:42 would likely be a disappointment.
Lex Young is in a field of mostly sub-14 min 5,000m runners, with the obvious exceptions of him and Tyrone Gorze, another junior out of Crater (OR). Gorze ran 14:12 and 8:11 at UW this winter, while Lex Young ran 7:57 and 14:05 at RunningLane (Tully's conversion is to around 13:50-13:55 on a track).
My guess is Young will be able to float on the back of the pack through 3k, probably in ~8:15, and finish in 13:50. Anything slower than 14 minutes will probably be a disappointment, and anything faster than 13:40 will go down as one of the great performances in high school history (Only Rupp has run faster).