Predict my marathon time

Mileage is low but half says well under 3 hours. So I think opening in 1:29-1:30 is right. Just don't run 6:30 pace in the first 5k. Start at 7:00 pace through 5k. Settle into 6:50s.

You are going to break 3. 2:57 and change. Congrats!

Your mileage is pretty low, so I would say you have a very good chance to get under the magic 3:07.
And that it's all what matters here.

That half result with more mileage equates to 251-254. But, that mileage means 3 hours +/- 2 minutes with decent conditions.

Cool thanks for the replies guys, I'll be overjoyed with a 2:59:59 but well aware that a lot can go wrong due to low mileage.

It would be helpful to know what your half time was before your 3:08, to predict accurately. But with a 1:22, I'd say 2:57, +/- 2 min is a reasonable range to target, assuming similar course and conditions. With a recent 1:22 half, I personally wouldn't hesitate to take a shot at sub-3:00. I put your chances at 80%.

Hi , I ran a 1:25 high HM in the lead up to my first marathon, so I've knocked 3.5 minutes off that . The Alphaflys made a noticeable difference. I'm definitely a bit fitter than last time, overall mileage is the same but I did more quality this time .

Weather may be a factor, it was 6 degrees (43F) for my first one but looking like 14 degrees (62F) this time round , it's not super hot but I've spent the last few months in the European winter so not exactly heat acclimatised.

80% looks optimistic to me but I hope you're right!

Finished in 2:59:29 , delighted. Came through the half in 1:28:30 then managed to hang on but it was getting seriously tough in the last 10k. Thanks for your positivity and optimism, it helped!

Nice job. Congratulations!