Sub 2:45 in Boston?

To me, your 1:16 tells me you can do it. You seem to be doing all the right training. Don't, I repeat DON'T get caught up in the first few miles with too quick of a pace. There is plenty of time to ease into the pace in Framingham and Natick +. The question is can you run hills, recover and run more hills after Newton Lower Falls?

For ne at Boston, it all comes down to the weather which, of course, you have no control over.

Good luck!

Your half is worth about a 2:40 to 2:41 marathon on a flat course. Add 1 1/2 to 2 minutes for the hilly Boston course and that puts you at about 2:42 to 2:43. That still leaves you with a cushion for the weather, which will be less than perfect, and other factors, so 2:45 should be very doable.

If you're in a less-than-ideal starting coral, do not start weaving your way through people in the first couple miles. If you can, latch on to a group going the right pace that's plowing a path for you. Otherwise, just treat it as a 24 mile race with a slightly quick 2 mile warm-up. Ideally, you want to be going slower than goal MP through the first miles, even though they're downhill. Running downhill at a fast pace when your legs aren't fully warmed up does a lot of damage that will hurt you later in the race, and if you run those miles too fast or do a bunch of weaving and surging it just compounds the damage. Rest of the course is just standard marathon pacing strategy.

Everybody is giving good advice. Your 1:16 is worth low-2:40s, a touch slower at Boston. Depending on the weather, you may have to adjust a little more and 2:45-flat may very well be the appropriate goal.

Everybody goes out too fast at Boston. Honestly, run the first mile at 6:30 pace. Ease into 6:10-6:15 pace by 10k. Then roll that effort from 10k-30k. Think about effort through the Newton Hills. You might lose ~20s/mile. That's okay. Don't force the splits you were hitting up to that point. So you might run some 6:30-6:40 pace from 17-21, with something more normal for mile 19 (downhill mile thrown into that mix). You need legs at the top of Heartbreak. That happens with good early pacing & not trying to do too much in the hills. The Graveyard mile (22) should be your fastest of the day. Then it's a gentle/runnable downhill all the way to the finish. You'll get back whatever you lost in Newton. Ideal Boston splits are probably ~1 minute positive split but your fastest miles still from 22-finish.

I'm coming off very similar training and half time (1:16:19 in hilly NYC but with more fitness, yours was before the main training block). I'm planning on splitting 1:21/1:22 for a 2:43 time. Looks like you're there too.

How many marathons have you ran and what was your BQ time?

Sounds very doable. Fuel early and fight like hell the last 10-15k.

You will most likely go out to hard so mentally prepare for it. I always do and blow up.

Good luck…See you in Boston…

15+over past 10 years, but really only started doing consistent structured workouts in 2021. BQ was 2:49 last September.

Yeah I was thinking 1:21:30 split, prepare to lose a bit of time on the hills, then hammer it home at or under goal pace.

Then you have plenty of practice at the distance. If you run a smart race and get decent weather, you should be good for 2:45 low or even 2:44 depending on how your body handles the stress on your quads.

Lots of good advice already. The only thing I would add is that you should chat with some other red bibs on the bus or at the athlete village and try to find a pack of people shooting for 2:45 that have ran the race before.