He is fantastic, and their club is incredible, but if you could get all the guys above in a race Grant would not be in my Top 10.
I mean he was top 10 at the Olympics, so...
I said "if you could get all those guys above in a race." Grant was 9th at the Olympics, and the way Ethiopia picked it's team, guys basically weren't allowed to double (except Wale for some reason, and Ethiopia screwed his 5000 changes by having him in the 3000sc), so there was no Gebhriwet (12:45 PR), Kejelcha (7:26/12:46), Wale (7:24i, 12:53), Girma (7:25) in the final, so what I am saying is that I believe all those dudes would be favored over Grant Fisher. But Ethiopia can't run like 6 dudes at the Olympics, so this would have to be a DL race. The original post from JWH was ranking, not how they would place in a championship race.
Given the limitation on entries for various countries, Grant would likely be T10 in any world final.
Knight, Gebrhiwet, Katir, Kimeli, and Wale all have faster 5000 PRs than Grant (most of them within the last year. He lost to all those guys plus Balew and Chelimo in Tokyo. I don't think he's ever beaten any of those guys at 5000. If he bumps anyone out I'd argue it's Ahmed given he has beaten him twice head to head this year. After that Katir because Katir seems to have lost his bottle of Michael's Special Stuff. Then maybe Chelimo.
Nitpicking a bit here, but he did not lose to Wale or Gebrhiwet in Tokyo.
And when you say “if he bumps anyone out I’d argue it’s Ahmed given he has beaten him twice head to head this year”—can’t you acknowledge that if he’s beating the only one of these guys he’s raced this year, who happens to be the Olympic silver medalist with a 12:47 PR, that it likely follows he could bump some others too?
That's fair, I sort of forgot Wale tried to double back from the steeple final and dropped a deuce in the 5000. I think Hagos was going to run the 10,000 but ran 26:57 and didn't make the team (lol at the thought of running sub 27 at the trials and not making your country's team).
I understand your point with respect to Ahmed, but given he was 9 seconds from his PR in Boston I guess I was assuming he was not quite where he was at in years past rather than Grant Fisher now being in world medalist, 12:45ish shape.
Certainly will be rooting for Grant and the other Americans in Eugene, just not sure I'd slot him into the T10 in the world yet @ 5000. At 10,000, I'd definitely give it to him. I hope he has at least the level of success Rupp had at 10,000 on the track -- one medal, a few close calls and good runs.
I said "if you could get all those guys above in a race." Grant was 9th at the Olympics, and the way Ethiopia picked it's team, guys basically weren't allowed to double (except Wale for some reason, and Ethiopia screwed his 5000 changes by having him in the 3000sc), so there was no Gebhriwet (12:45 PR), Kejelcha (7:26/12:46), Wale (7:24i, 12:53), Girma (7:25) in the final, so what I am saying is that I believe all those dudes would be favored over Grant Fisher. But Ethiopia can't run like 6 dudes at the Olympics, so this would have to be a DL race. The original post from JWH was ranking, not how they would place in a championship race.
Given the limitation on entries for various countries, Grant would likely be T10 in any world final.
Grant was 9th in the 5000 but he was hurt. Jonathan Gault reminded me he picked up a calf injury in the 5000. That being said the post by John Wesley Harding listing all of the tiered guys was one of the best posts I've seen on her in a long, long time. There are a lot of super talented guys.. Despite the 2633, I still think if everyone is at their best, I don't think Fisher is touching Cheptegei, Kipliimo, Barega or Aregawi at 10k - and those are the 4 guys who beat him in Tokyo. The top 3 were clearly better than him and Aregawi has already run 726 in his lone indoor race this year and just turned 21 last week.
The good news for US fans is not everyone will be at their best at all of the big meets.
Too bad no World Cross this year. Grant would've been right up there, Jakob too. And when those two do clash, Cheptegei etc will almost certainly be in the race as well because we're talking the final in Eugene, or some premier Diamond League race. Records will fall this summer. Only concern about Grant is that he's in peak shape in early March. But surely he can move the dials around to peak again for Pre on May 28 and Worlds in mid-July.
Really weird take to say that in a sport where the top priority is to run fast no one is trying hard enough to run fast. If you had said indoors, i would agree. But outdoors? No. If you dont run 26:30 its not for lack of trying but rather very likely because you cant. Credit where credit is due, Fisher went out there and did the thing.
That’s not really how it works. Barega and Kejelcha haven’t run 26:30, but I don’t think anyone is going to argue that they can’t.
Credit to Fisher, but most athletes either don’t have the luxury or simply don’t take the opportunity to run these sort of time trials. Fast distance races generally don’t happen without somebody doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the middle (ie Kejelcha Brussels 5k, Cheptegei Florence 5k, etc.), and it’s rare to see that outside of organized record attempts.
Anything under 26:40 is still incredible and the list of guys who can do that in any given year is going to be short, but it’s not accurate to say that running 26:30 is simply a matter of being capable or not. Most guys who can run a time like that probably won’t in a typical season.
Um, pretty sure if you've run the event numerous times and you cant run a 26:30...then you cant run a 26:30. Its not like they've run 12:45 & 58 flat in a half marathon. No, if they cant they cant.
Fisher ran 3:36 two years ago. Grijalva and Gressier have negligibly better 1500 PRs. And this season there's no doubt Fisher could run much much faster than that this year.
They aren't in the same league.
What are you on about?? Fisher has improved in the 5000, and much more so in the 10. Have not seen anything yet in which we'll see him run a 3:34 or quicker. You think the other guys his age have not improved over the last year??
Um, pretty sure if you've run the event numerous times and you cant run a 26:30...then you cant run a 26:30. Its not like they've run 12:45 & 58 flat in a half marathon. No, if they cant they cant.
Exactly. "oh well other people could have done it but they didnt try.." No.
If they could they would, end of story. Only time we make special exceptions is when someone has substantially faster PRs in both longer and shorter distances. Kiplimo is a good example. Based on his 3k and 10k times, you can reasonably credit him with a 12:45 or 12:44 5k.
Grant was 9th in the 5000 but he was hurt. Jonathan Gault reminded me he picked up a calf injury in the 5000. That being said the post by John Wesley Harding listing all of the tiered guys was one of the best posts I've seen on her in a long, long time. There are a lot of super talented guys.. Despite the 2633, I still think if everyone is at their best, I don't think Fisher is touching Cheptegei, Kipliimo, Barega or Aregawi at 10k - and those are the 4 guys who beat him in Tokyo. The top 3 were clearly better than him and Aregawi has already run 726 in his lone indoor race this year and just turned 21 last week.
The good news for US fans is not everyone will be at their best at all of the big meets.
The top 3 were clearly better than him last year, but Fisher is already on a totally different level this year. Last year, he ran 27:11 in March, came second at the trials, but still peaked so well that he came 5th in the 10k finals. This year, it's 12:53 in February and 26:33 in March.
Maybe you think that at their best, Cheptegei, Kiplimo, Barega, and Aregawi are better than that 26:33. I'd agree, but given that it's March, and his improvement curve last year, I'd say Fisher isn't at his best right now either. And like you said, not everyone will be at their best at WCs. Right now, I think Fisher will be, and he's shown he has gold medal potential, even if he's not the favorite.
Fisher ran 3:36 two years ago. Grijalva and Gressier have negligibly better 1500 PRs. And this season there's no doubt Fisher could run much much faster than that this year.
They aren't in the same league.
What are you on about?? Fisher has improved in the 5000, and much more so in the 10. Have not seen anything yet in which we'll see him run a 3:34 or quicker. You think the other guys his age have not improved over the last year??
Why would he run the 1500 when he's a weak opponent compared to spending his energy on the 5 and 10K? He's not a 1500 guy. Has he even run a 1500 since that 3:336 two years ago?
Grant's 12:53 and 26:33 in the last two weeks clearly puts him among the top few in the world at both distances. Jakob just ran a 3:30 WR for the indoor 1500 and is aiming to break several outdoor WRs this year from 1500 up to 5000. At some point, Grant and Jakob will clash and it'll be the race of the year. Who ya got? I still gotta lean Jakob, but there is a very strong case for Grant. Cannot wait until they race!
i'll go with the guy that has a faster PB and just broke a world record and holds the olympic 1500 title over the guy who has never won a senior race outside the USA
Jacob is also about 3 1/2 years younger than Fisher.
Really weird take to say that in a sport where the top priority is to run fast no one is trying hard enough to run fast. If you had said indoors, i would agree. But outdoors? No. If you dont run 26:30 its not for lack of trying but rather very likely because you cant. Credit where credit is due, Fisher went out there and did the thing.
That’s not really how it works. Barega and Kejelcha haven’t run 26:30, but I don’t think anyone is going to argue that they can’t.
Credit to Fisher, but most athletes either don’t have the luxury or simply don’t take the opportunity to run these sort of time trials. Fast distance races generally don’t happen without somebody doing a lot of the heavy lifting in the middle (ie Kejelcha Brussels 5k, Cheptegei Florence 5k, etc.), and it’s rare to see that outside of organized record attempts.
Anything under 26:40 is still incredible and the list of guys who can do that in any given year is going to be short, but it’s not accurate to say that running 26:30 is simply a matter of being capable or not. Most guys who can run a time like that probably won’t in a typical season.
Yeah, put another way, I can't see any top Kenyan or Ethiopian runner running a time trial on a high school track for no money. No point to it at all.
Chelimo beat Fisher last year in the US trials and the Olympics. Sure, Fisher has a faster PR now, but he still has to prove he can excel in a championship style race.
Chelimo beat Fisher last year in the US trials and the Olympics. Sure, Fisher has a faster PR now, but he still has to prove he can excel in a championship style race.
Wrong. Chelimo has to prove he can keep up with Fisher who has just proven he is the the top talent in American running.
i'll go with the guy that has a faster PB and just broke a world record and holds the olympic 1500 title over the guy who has never won a senior race outside the USA
100%. Actually racing in international meets with the best of the best is something else (which Letsrun posters consistently forget). Chances are that the guy who has long experience doing that and has a faster PB will beat the guy doesn't with a slower PB.
Looksee, run at the front and stay there at 12:30 pace. You winz every X. There’s no magic strategy. Just do it.
Nitpicking a bit here, but he did not lose to Wale or Gebrhiwet in Tokyo.
And when you say “if he bumps anyone out I’d argue it’s Ahmed given he has beaten him twice head to head this year”—can’t you acknowledge that if he’s beating the only one of these guys he’s raced this year, who happens to be the Olympic silver medalist with a 12:47 PR, that it likely follows he could bump some others too?
That's fair, I sort of forgot Wale tried to double back from the steeple final and dropped a deuce in the 5000. I think Hagos was going to run the 10,000 but ran 26:57 and didn't make the team (lol at the thought of running sub 27 at the trials and not making your country's team).
I understand your point with respect to Ahmed, but given he was 9 seconds from his PR in Boston I guess I was assuming he was not quite where he was at in years past rather than Grant Fisher now being in world medalist, 12:45ish shape.
Certainly will be rooting for Grant and the other Americans in Eugene, just not sure I'd slot him into the T10 in the world yet @ 5000. At 10,000, I'd definitely give it to him. I hope he has at least the level of success Rupp had at 10,000 on the track -- one medal, a few close calls and good runs.
Ahmed was off his PR but also remember they took it out a bit slow and blasted the last half. So maybe in a more even race he may have been closer to his PR.