I did some analysis / projections and came to conclusion that in order to seriously challenge 3000m WR one would have to be able to run one of these combos:
1500m + 5000m:
3:26 + 12:50
3:28 + 12:45
3:30 + 12:40
3:32 + 12:35
The closest prospects I could find are Ingebrigtsen, Cheptegei, Barega and Wale. A nice well paced race with these 4 gentlemen could threaten Komens WR.
I also think Wale needs to stop messing around with steeple and really test his limits in 3000m and 5000m.
I think Barega has the best shot at it, yea his 1500 is weak (3:32 high from 2020) but considering how he can close 5/10k races I think he has mid-low 3:31 potential. Still a very small chance of him getting it, 7:20 is just insanely fast
Jakob is pretty much already here according to your marks (3:28 + 12:48), plus you would have to think he could go a little faster in the 1500 in a non championship race with rounds. I think he probably has the best shot at it, Chep doesnt quite have the speed.
Probably one of the Newbury Park Kids getting 10 years older when they will be at the peak of their running abilities, having a Genetic Gift as the Newbury Park Kids do, based on their running under 8:50 for 2 miles at 14-15 years old as they have.
Nobody with these times could break 7:20. Komen ran 3:29 and 12:39, and he was arguably better at 3k than either common distance. El Guerrouj was 3:26/12:50 and only ran 7:23. Bekele was 3:32/12:37 and only ran 7:25. Geb was 3:31i/12:39 and only ran 7:25.
You absolutely must be sub-3:30 and sub-12:40. I imagine a sub-12:30 5k guy or 3:24 1500 man could take a shot but anyone with those kind of times would also be pretty fast in the other event.
I agree with the prospects you’ve mentioned, however. I also think Katir could take a real shot at it, but there’s no real reason to pick him over Jakob. I especially agree with your Wale take. He blew up in Tokyo but he looked so good at the Ethiopian champs and trials, and his 7:24 indoors is the fastest time anyone has run in over two decades.
i believe CHeptegei had the fitness to challenge it when he broke the 5/10 records, but attaining that kind of fitness puts you very close to the flame. You look at these guys with 12:3Xs or low 12:40s or guys in the low 7:20s. How long were they able to maintain that kind of speed?
I just think when you hit that kind of peak, you've got a season or maybe 2 seasons to get those fast races in.
my two pennies wrote:
Nobody with these times could break 7:20. Komen ran 3:29 and 12:39, and he was arguably better at 3k than either common distance. El Guerrouj was 3:26/12:50 and only ran 7:23. Bekele was 3:32/12:37 and only ran 7:25. Geb was 3:31i/12:39 and only ran 7:25.
You absolutely must be sub-3:30 and sub-12:40. I imagine a sub-12:30 5k guy or 3:24 1500 man could take a shot but anyone with those kind of times would also be pretty fast in the other event.
I agree with the prospects you’ve mentioned, however. I also think Katir could take a real shot at it, but there’s no real reason to pick him over Jakob. I especially agree with your Wale take. He blew up in Tokyo but he looked so good at the Ethiopian champs and trials, and his 7:24 indoors is the fastest time anyone has run in over two decades.
Yeah these are good two pennies - how insanely difficult this is, is summed up by one man - Hicham El Guerrouj. As you pointed out he actually had 3.26/12.50 PR's and really didn't get close even though he ran the second fastest time by quite some margin too in the year that he ran 3.43.1 for the mile. You are spot on with the more 5/10 guys too (Geb/Bekele). I still think that speed over a mile is more imperative to getting close to 7.20 - it's only a fraction longer than the 1500m but it's funny how a lot of guys who busted really good 1500m times struggled with the extra 100m of the mile which is a little indicator of the extra strength needed. People forget Komen also ran 3.46.3 and is still the 5th fastest ever over this distance!
The interesting thing is this - to run 3.24 I think you really have to be quick over 800m too - because at this point you need to be coming through in 1.48 (!!!) to then be 2.42/3 at the 1200m. I don't see how someone can get this fast over the 8 in order to do that and have enough strength to figure over the 3k. Same with a sub 12.30 guy who then needs to still have the wheels to run at least a 3.50 mile - I don't think that's possible given the amount of aerobic capacity and threshold excellence you need and excellence at the 10000m
So when you look at Komens range I think we could make a guess. You need to be a sub 3.45 miler and a 12.40.xx 5000m runner - this is the only plausible and likely combo I think you could get to. I could still see a 3.44.xx miler that doesn't to sacrifice the aerobic strength work for anaerobic work more in the 800m realm. What makes it so tough is when you think about the only sub 3.45 guys in history - El G, Ngeny, Morceli. Hicham was the best of them over 5000m and sure I do think he could have run 12.46/7 if he had ran more than just one of them in a time trial situation - but he was never going to be approaching 12.40.
Who can do it right now? Honestly (due to a number of factors we probably don't need to discuss) - nobody can. I firmly believe we could be sitting here in another 25 years time talking about who could break this record.
Better drugs and shoes. Seriously tho, I think Jakob I or Tim C could do it under perfect conditions with a little more improvement in mile speed and exact pacing or wave lights.
Geb took several tries at the two mile record also, and came up with only 8:01 to Komen's 7:58. Mile ability is more important here than 5k ability, imo, which is why El G got closer than Bekele
I think Jakob could run sub-7:23 (#2 A.T.) if he got really good pacing, weather, etc. If he improves to a 3:27/12:43 performer, which looks entirely possible, then I suppose 7:20.67 is in play—especially with wavelight.
PEDs.
Or blood doping.
The most amazing thing about Komen's WR is that the pacing was spot-on for every single lap (right on 58-59s per lap) even without the advent of wavelight. Dude is/was a human metronome.
douglas burke wrote:
Probably one of the Newbury Park Kids getting 10 years older when they will be at the peak of their running abilities, having a Genetic Gift as the Newbury Park Kids do, based on their running under 8:50 for 2 miles at 14-15 years old as they have.
Surely you are trolling. None of those kids will even break 7:30. It is not going to happen. No chance.
Cheptegei, Bekele, Barega
Not Yakob though. Doesnt have the speed or the strength.
my two pennies wrote:
Nobody with these times could break 7:20. Komen ran 3:29 and 12:39, and he was arguably better at 3k than either common distance. El Guerrouj was 3:26/12:50 and only ran 7:23. Bekele was 3:32/12:37 and only ran 7:25. Geb was 3:31/12:39 and only ran 7:25.
Bekele was good for sub 3:30 for sure. Hes the most explosive distance runner ever, surely he had the top end and speed endurance to beak 3:30, just not the interest. He was a 10000m specialist and, later, a marathoner.
That's ultimately what this question comes down to. Its not about what your career PRs are, it's more about what your training gears you toward. It just so happens that nobody other than Komen was interested in peaking for a 3000m. Whether it was intentional, who knows, but Komen's the only guy who peaked as a 3k specialist. Everyone else's careers were aimed at peaking in different disciplines which allowed them to set WRs more impressive than Komen's.
Bolt could have broken MJ's 400m wr. But instead, he focused on peaking for other events and went on to set records more impressive than the 400m one. Same is true for El Gerrouj and Bekele.
OozmaKabba wrote:
Cheptegei, Bekele, Barega
Not Yakob though. Doesnt have the speed or the strength.
Actually, Jakob and Barega would be pretty matched in 3000m. Also, Bekele has switched to roads, he had his chance at 3000m 15 years ago, though.
I say in a fantasy race this summer it would play out like this:
1. Wale - 7:22
2. Barega -7:23
3. Ingebrigtsen - 7:24
4. Kiplimo - 7:25
5. Kejelcha - 7:25
5. Katir - 7:26
6. Cheptegei - 7:26
7. McSweyn - 7:27
Master of Lolly wrote:
I did some analysis / projections and came to conclusion that in order to seriously challenge 3000m WR one would have to be able to run one of these combos:
1500m + 5000m:
3:26 + 12:50
3:28 + 12:45
3:30 + 12:40
3:32 + 12:35
The closest prospects I could find are Ingebrigtsen, Cheptegei, Barega and Wale. A nice well paced race with these 4 gentlemen could threaten Komens WR.
I also think Wale needs to stop messing around with steeple and really test his limits in 3000m and 5000m.
You're so smart. So basically to get the WR a person would have to run faster than the old record. Thanks for the number combos.
So 3:24 and 12:15 would be good too right?
matt_london_413 wrote:
Master of Lolly wrote:
I did some analysis / projections and came to conclusion that in order to seriously challenge 3000m WR one would have to be able to run one of these combos:
1500m + 5000m:
3:26 + 12:50
3:28 + 12:45
3:30 + 12:40
3:32 + 12:35
The closest prospects I could find are Ingebrigtsen, Cheptegei, Barega and Wale. A nice well paced race with these 4 gentlemen could threaten Komens WR.
I also think Wale needs to stop messing around with steeple and really test his limits in 3000m and 5000m.
You're so smart. So basically to get the WR a person would have to run faster than the old record. Thanks for the number combos.
So 3:24 and 12:15 would be good too right?
?
Look at he combos again and tell me what you see. Hypothetically, 3:24 and 12:55 would be the extension of the list.
These are the best times in 3 years between 1/10/1996 and 27/11/1999
1-. 7:23.09 Hicham EL GUERROUJ Bruxelles (BEL) 03 SEP 1999
2. 7:25.09 Haile GEBRSELASSIE Bruxelles (BEL) 28 AUG 1998
3. 7:27.59 Luke KIPKOSGEI Monaco (MON) 08 AUG 1998
4. 7:28.45 Assefa MEZGEBU Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 08 AUG 1998
5. 7:28.67 Benjamin LIMO Monaco (MON) 04 AUG 1999
6. 7:28.93 Salah HISSOU Monaco (MON) 04 AUG 1999
7. 7:28.94 Brahim LAHLAFI Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 04 AUG 1999
8. 7:29.09 John Kemboi KIBOWEN Bislett Stadion, Oslo (NOR) 09 JUL 1998
9. 7:29.34 Isaac VICIOSA Bislett Stadion, Oslo (NOR) 09 JUL 1998
10. 7:29.43 Daniel KOMEN Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 04 AUG 1999
11. 7:30.23 Paul BITOK Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 16 AUG 1997
12. 7:30.26 Tom NYARIKI Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 08 AUG 1998
13. 7:30.36 Mark CARROLL Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 04 AUG 1999
14. 7:30.50 Dieter BAUMANN Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 08 AUG 1998 1236
15. 7:30.78 Mustapha ESSAÏD Stade Louis II, Monaco (MON) 08 AUG 1998 1234
In three years, Daniel Komen didn't do better than 7:29 after his record in 01 SEP 1996.