otter wrote:
aa aa aa dd wrote:
ran the half off of 60mpw. will peak this spring at 70-80 mpw. what should my goal be for the marathon?
Based on the amount of information you have given about your training and running history my estimate would be:
2:30 - 4:30 / or DNF
a true scholar i see
lololoolololol wrote:
otter wrote:
Based on the amount of information you have given about your training and running history my estimate would be:
2:30 - 4:30 / or DNF
a true scholar i see
Did the OP train for 6 months and work up to 60 miles and taper for that Half Marathon? Or, has he run for 10 years at that volume and jumped in for the half? Big difference. Don't think so?
- How did he structure his training? What paces did he run? Maybe he ran all 9-10 minute paced runs...unlikely but you never know. It makes the 1:20 worth more of he now properly trained.
I could go on but why bother?
I have the only accurate prediction based on the information provided.
Thanks for the replies. For the half marathon, I did a tempo run each week on Tuesdays (e.g. 3x2 mile or 20-40 minute LT) and then a long run of 12-16 miles on Saturday for the 12 weeks leading up to the race. I think once or twice I did k's or 1200's instead of a tempo run. The rest was easy running between 7 and 9 minute pace. Looking back, I guess the weekly mileage was between 50 and 60.
you'll break 2:50 with increased mileage with a fast course and a very, very good day.
Similar as others suggest 2:50 -2:55
When I was running 1:20 most marathons were low 2-5x
2:4x possible but less likely
aa aa aa dd wrote:
ran the half off of 60mpw. will peak this spring at 70-80 mpw. what should my goal be for the marathon?
Difficult to tell as weekly mileage is not enough to understand your base. My recommendation is to use the 10 additional miles for (1) a longer long run, i.e. at least 20-22 miles with 5-6 miles at MR pace instead of the typical 15 milers and (b) longer tempo workouts. Even if you feel fitter than in fall, I would opt for a 2:50 (2x 1:20 plus 10min) and if you feel great you may go for a negative split.
You should be targeting sub-2:50 during this build. I hear what others are saying that 2:50-3:00 is still really solid but with decent mileage & a 1:20 you should have enough motivation to train for what you're capable of. The plan that got you to 1:20 looks solid enough. Now add on some mileage & do your MP work in long runs at 6:20-6:30 pace.
If you do the training & choose a fast course & get good weather, go out right at 6:30 pace. One reason people fall off is that they run 1:20 & then hit mile 1 of their next marathon at 6:15 or they try to run 2:50 on a tough course with bad weather. Just pace it right. You should be able to hold 6:30 pace well past 20 miles. Even if you fall off, you're looking at low-2:50s. Sub-2:55 if you need a weather adjusted or course adjusted goal.
Echoing what others are saying here. I have run 1:20 halfs a couple of times in buildups and it translates to 2:50-2:55. But of course depends on how focused the training is to the half vs. full. The one time I did run 2:48 I was probably in 1:19 shape and then on top of that my training was much more marathon focused, 4 times over 2:25 on feet. 30K at race pace, etc..
I agree with others that going out at 6:30 will give you flexibility to adjust in race based on how you feel. Don't go too fast in the first half. Better to hit close to 1:24:45-1:25:15 for half and then take it from there.
Totally -- a lot of people who run 1:20 & then 2:50-2:55 probably take out their race in 1:23-1:24-low & come back slower. No reason someone with a 1:20 can't run 2:48-49 (low-2:50s at worst if you fade or catch a bad weather day) with good marathon training.