women conference results reveal weaknesses

ND will have 3 in the top 20, maybe 4... their 5th girl at Big East ran peaked well in track last year, dropping 10+ seconds off her steeple time at the track regional. If she continues to head in the right direction, they'll challenge Duke, especially if the Dukies falter.

I'm not sure why Lambie is so low on that list. She beat Hastings by a solid 20 seconds. She had the third fastest time of the day at pre-nats. The course where she ran 20:20 this weekend was hilly and hot. For anyone who doubts, you just had to be there. I think Lambie has as good a chance as anyone to be up front at NCs.

Stanford wolloped ND pretty well at pre-nats. Now, I realize Molly Huddle could have been higher, but I'm not sure that would have made the difference. Teresa McWalters, despite a mediocre showing at Pacs, peaked really well for track last year( 3rd in the 5k with a 16:16 coming in ). So, I don't categorically see ND as a better team. I need more results to convince me.

With that out of the way - yes, I think Stanford is probably a bit vulnerable, but if all their pieces are in place, I think they are the only team capable of challenging Duke on judgement day. If Stanford doesn't beat them, I don't think anyone will.

don't forget columbia's #2 runner stublic - expect a fast time from her as well

I've said it before and I'll stand by it, as long as she is not injured or nursing injury Victoria Mitchell will win it. There is no stand out sub 16min 5km runners or top class 10km runners this year so Vic's steeple strength will get her accross the line over the hills and grass.

The Columbia women, Bierbaum and Stublic, will probably have the lowets #1 - #2 point total.

ummm, bierbaum has run sub 16 min 5k and a sub 33 min 10k...that's "stand out" enough in my book

Cassie Hunt looked very strong at Big Tens. Watch out for her fighting for a top ten spot. The Illini women should be in contention for a trophy spot as well.

yo wrote:

ummm, bierbaum has run sub 16 min 5k and a sub 33 min 10k...that's "stand out" enough in my book

Yes and Vic ran right over the top her at Pre-nats. I'm yet to be convinced.

Katie Gwyther of Quinnipiac is capable of winning the race. Why do I say that, you ask. Follow me:

At New Englands she ran 16:54 at Franklin Park. It was wet and muddy. The athletes who ran that day averaged a 20 second speed up when they competed at VCP at the Heps (the Harvard, Yale, and Brown runners). That would put her in the 16:40 range at Van Cortland.

The thing is, she is just coming into her own. Last spring she was a so-so 1500 meter runner (4:30 or so), this fall she is flyingggg.

Mitchell hardly ran right over the top of Bierbaum at Pre-Nationals. Wasn't the difference less than a second?

Bolf higher up in the finish. Wetmore is more concerned with having his runners race through to Nationals. CU seems to do that better than other programs.

poor analogy, hte heps are a big meet for the ivy runners and upfront they performed at a higher level than at NEs.

perspective wrote:

Katie Gwyther of Quinnipiac is capable of winning the race. Why do I say that, you ask. Follow me:

At New Englands she ran 16:54 at Franklin Park. It was wet and muddy. The athletes who ran that day averaged a 20 second speed up when they competed at VCP at the Heps (the Harvard, Yale, and Brown runners). That would put her in the 16:40 range at Van Cortland.

The thing is, she is just coming into her own. Last spring she was a so-so 1500 meter runner (4:30 or so), this fall she is flyingggg.

I agree with runmatty--Victoria Mitchell is on fire. She has yet to really spend herself in a race and is in peak shape. I think this year we will have a close race though, as opposed to one favorite just going out and dominating like the last 3 years. It should be exciting...

craaazzzyyy wrote:

Mitchell hardly ran right over the top of Bierbaum at Pre-Nationals. Wasn't the difference less than a second?

She certainly did run over the top of her. She coasted along behind the leaders before running up onto them and then outsprinting the field to win without having to run as hard as she could. If healthy and uninjured she will beat the girls she came up against at pre-nats by a lot more. Being an Aussie the whole hoo-ha of the NCAA cross wont mean as much to her as the American athletes too so nerves wont be a problem. Sorry, but I just don't rate the talent of the American athelets this year.

in response to the poster who made the following comment: "I'm not sure why Lambie is so low on that list." If you read the original post again, you will notice that my top 20 women's picks were "in no particular order". After seeing all of the conference results, I agree that Lambie should be in the top 10 and could even contend for the title. I also think that Rowbury at Duke will be right there with her. She ran a blazing fast conference meet and looks really relaxed (like Lambie) in the pictures of her ACC win. Even though it was reported that the ACC course was short by 250 meters, the conversion (add roughly 1 minute) still translates to a very low 20 min 6k.

Bierbaum has earned her spot at the top of the rankings. She's a tough, gutsy runner and isn't afraid to push the pace. Mitchell looked tough at Pre-Nats, hanging out and letting everyone do all the work then outkicking Bierbaum. I'm not sure how far back Lambie was in the Pre-Nats race. Was she out of contention for the win when the Mitchell outkicked Bierbaum?

If NCAA's comes down to a kick, I would have to put the title in favor of the Miler's, Lambie or Rowbury, especially since I don't know what kind of mile speed that Mitchell has.

As far as the teams are concerned, after seeing all of the conference results, I think I placed the Michigan women a bit low in my top 5 picks. They have an incredibly tight pack. I'm not sure if their front runner is going to be able to sustain her position at the top. It appears to me that the top runners on other teams are really starting to pick up the pace and she seems to be falling off a bit. If she can hang tough for another three weeks, I think they could place 2nd.

Nobody will beat Duke.