Centro's chances in Tokyo = super bleak

Only on letsrun does the reigning gold medalist PRing a week before the olympics running her last the last 600 completely alone indicate super bleak things to come. Not saying he is the favorite or even > 50% to medal but don’t you think you are being a bit hyperbolic? Remind me, what did the rest of your list run in a full mile with competition this year?

Last night's race should worry Ingebrigsten and crew. Race was out too fast and he ran 600 on his own. It's also not the style of racing that Centro is used to. He's a medal favorite.

highhoppingworm wrote:

Only on letsrun does the reigning gold medalist PRing a week before the olympics running her last the last 600 completely alone indicate super bleak things to come. Not saying he is the favorite or even > 50% to medal but don’t you think you are being a bit hyperbolic? Remind me, what did the rest of your list run in a full mile with competition this year?

Reigning means absolutely nothing, it's been 5 years since Rio.

Many medalists since then have fallen off the map: Manangoi, F. Ingebrigtsen, Nick Willis, Iguider.

Centro PRed in a TT with no competition, but his 3:49 converts to 3:32.

Mile is not an important race in Europe, but even then McSweyn has run 3:48, Lewandowski, Edwards and Simotwo 3:49, all in a real race with competition.

Even better, Tim has run 3:28, Jakob and McSweyn - 3:29, Simotwo, Lewandowski and Tefera - 3:30.

Kerr is in a tremendous shape at the moment, Hocker will outkick Centro as well. It's not that Centro is not good, but it is the rest of the field, that is that strong.

I call 3:32 for 6-8th place for Centro, just like in Doha in 2019.

Jersey Shore's Finest wrote:

Last night's race should worry Ingebrigsten and crew. Race was out too fast and he ran 600 on his own. It's also not the style of racing that Centro is used to. He's a medal favorite.

I ask myself: Centro, the super experienced God of racing and pacing goes out in a 3:45 pace only to finish with a 57.7 lap for a 3:49. Either his shape is not as good as he thinks, or he is not that great with pacing after all.

Either way, this race was more of a fail than anything, because he didn't achieve any of the plausible goals in this. It was not an AR (as planned), also not a successful practice of a TT style final and definitely not a good sit and kick workout.

This just showed to me, that if Tim goes out fast, Centro will follow and will burn out in the last lap.

You could be right about Tim going out hard. I will say Centro seems to race better when in a race. Webb was opposite of that, I believe. I'd be shocked if Ingebrigsten and Tim don't earn gold and silver. Last night's race have me hope for Centro.

I wonder why the BTC crew didn't try to get some of the better USA guys, who are not running the Olympics, in this race. There are some guys that could have pushed him a bit.

Is it really a PR with the new super shoes, if he ran in the same shoes he used when running 3:50 this effort would have been lucky to yield a 3:53.

fake pr wrote:

Is it really a PR with the new super shoes, if he ran in the same shoes he used when running 3:50 this effort would have been lucky to yield a 3:53.

This is not a thread about shoes, it's about Centro's chances in Tokyo, please stay on topic.

And also get over about the shoes, they're available to every elite athlete = leveled playing field.

I think Centro had a good race yesterday. Equal to low 3:32 in the 1500m. His best since Doha 2019 BUT........

He is still far away from Timothy, Jakob, Wightman (if he can find his very best), McSweyn, Simotwo, Lewandowski and possibly Kerr and Hoare.

And to the people who write about Centro running the last 600m alone REMEMBER:

Timothy ran 3 seconds faster in Doha 2019 running the "last" 1500m alone.

Jakob ran 2.5 seconds faster last year in Monaco running the first more than 1100m without pacing.

??? He had nothing to do the with pace. Jerry literally wouldn’t tell him how fast the first 800 was going to be it was all on the pacers. This was more of a tune up than a record attempt than people are saying. Obviously he was shooting for that time but to think the preparing for Tokyo wasn’t the main goal would be ignorant.

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

2021 Centro is a lot more like 2019 Doha Centro (8th place) than 2016 Rio Centro.

In a TT style final he would lose to:

Tim, Jakob, McSweyn, Simotwo and maybe Lewandowski and Kerr.

In a sit and kick style final he would lose to:

Tim, Kerr, Hocker, Lewandowski and maybe Jakob and Simotwo.

Convince me otherwise.

From the post-race interview, it sounds like Centro crushed a set of workouts a week ago, and that gave him the confidence to attempt a 3:46. In retrospect, it seems to him (and to me) that he was a little tired from those efforts, and it showed in his 3:49. However, I think when you consider his really ambitious opening pace plus the fact that the pacers didn't make it past 1000 - he was probably good for 3:47 yesterday those things had lined up for him.

If travel/recovery/getting through COVID protocols go smoothly for Centro, I expect him to be in the mix. I think there will be at least 5 guys in 3:26-3:29 shape, and for him to be in the latter part of that group contending for the medals.

Ironic is that in 2016 Centro inspired an entire generation of runners around the world to practise sit and kick style racing and now, 5 years later, there are 5-6 runners with devastating kicks that aging Centro will have to face.

At the same time there are also 5-6 runners that are TT style race specialists and have SB of 3:30 and faster.

Either way Centro is doomed, the question is only what style of final is it gonna be in Tokyo:

1) a 3:29 all out race

2) a 3:32 race with a 51s last 400m

3) a 3:40 race with a 50s last 400m

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

fake pr wrote:

Is it really a PR with the new super shoes, if he ran in the same shoes he used when running 3:50 this effort would have been lucky to yield a 3:53.

This is not a thread about shoes, it's about Centro's chances in Tokyo, please stay on topic.

And also get over about the shoes, they're available to every elite athlete = leveled playing field.

It is pertinent. He ran a 1 second PR but in shoes that are probably worth a few seconds in a mile race.

As far as Centro’s chances in Tokyo, he will execute a good race.

Some of the others will choke under the pressure.

Kiprop was dominant champion in 2011 and 2015 but bombed in 2012 and 2016.

Cheruiyot crushed the 2019 championship but was just recently 4th at the Kenyan trials.

I know he bounced back in Monaco but can we guarantee he will be mentally right for Tokyo?

Jim Ryun was upset in 1968. He fell in 1972.

Steve Ovett was upset in 1980.

Steve Scott and Steve Cram underperformed in 1984.

Everyone crapped out in 1988. (Bile, Aouita and Cram)

Morceli bombed in 1992.

El G fell in 1996 and was upset in 2000.

Lagat was actually ranked #1 in 2004 and lost.

Ramzi got busted in 2008.

Is it good to be favored in the Olympic 1500m?

I agree. People were noting Centro was touching a lot of hands in the crowd after the race last night. I think he knows he has no chance in Tokyo and was trying to trigger a covid positive in order to avoid going.

Star wrote:

As far as Centro’s chances in Tokyo, he will execute a good race.

Some of the others will choke under the pressure.

While statistically you are absolutely correct, it also could be Centro who will choke.

I will remind you that in hist last major competition (WC Doha 2019) Centro placed 8th in a time of 3:32.

His 800m SB back then was 1:46, the same as this year. Also his mile TT converts to 3:32. So there is a good indication, that it could be a repeat of Doha for Centro.

Jersey Shore's Finest wrote:

Last night's race should worry Ingebrigsten and crew. Race was out too fast and he ran 600 on his own. It's also not the style of racing that Centro is used to. He's a medal favorite.

A great run. He is in good shape. But it does not worry the Ingebrigtsens. They are totally focused on their own last preparations. They know that it has to be a very fast race. That is the only way for them. And a lot of runners are prepared - Lemi, McSweyn, Hoare, Kerr. Wightman, Lewandowski. Simotwo and F. Ingebrigtsen, and sure Centrowitz too. And Makhloufi ? The most probable fight is between Jakob I and Tim C. For the Bronze a lot of them. But some will fail in the rounds. Both Ingebrigtsens must be careful so they do'nt get disqualified. They know from earlier mistakes. It will be very tough for Centrowitz even to run better than F. Ingebrigtsen. Let's say at best number 6.

The Unkle wrote:

Sopa de SabadelI wrote:

This is not a thread about shoes, it's about Centro's chances in Tokyo, please stay on topic.

And also get over about the shoes, they're available to every elite athlete = leveled playing field.

It is pertinent. He ran a 1 second PR but in shoes that are probably worth a few seconds in a mile race.

A few seconds?! Bwahahahahahahaha

Go back to being a nazi.

This right here.

My current estimation:

1) Tim

2-6) Jakob

2-6) Kerr

2-6) Lewandowski

2-6) McSweyn

2-6) Lemi

7-12) Simotwo

7-12) Tefera

7-12) Edwards

7-12) Hocker

7-12) Centro

7-12) Kipsang

13-14) Hoare

13-14) Nuguse / Fontes

El Guerrouj probably got annoyed to be a constant winner of the distance for 8 years. So he got distracted for a race or two during the season 2004.

It's the first I discover that it's this Jackal of Ramzi that beat El Guerrouj in 2004.

(He still didn't make the Olympic final that year)