I think the following
0-20%
1-40%
2-30%
3-10%
I think the following
0-20%
1-40%
2-30%
3-10%
Mens odds.
Those probabilities seem about right. Most likely scenario is 1-2 guys qualifying.
Running Art: Americans are terrible. None will make the final. Centro sucks.
shea it aint so wrote:
Running Art: Americans are terrible. None will make the final. Centro sucks.
I don't go with sentiment. I go with facts. And this is the worst 1500m team, based on recent performances (last 24mo), that we have sent to the OG in a long time. You can disagree with me all you want but statistically you would be wrong.
Obviously anything can and does happen. Odds are 1 will get through to the final.
Alan
Runningart2004 wrote:
shea it aint so wrote:
Running Art: Americans are terrible. None will make the final. Centro sucks.
I don't go with sentiment. I go with facts. And this is the worst 1500m team, based on recent performances (last 24mo), that we have sent to the OG in a long time. You can disagree with me all you want but statistically you would be wrong.
Obviously anything can and does happen. Odds are 1 will get through to the final.
Alan
Wrong. This US 1,500 team is very good. They haven’t had the opportunity to run fast times and the runners are trained to get through the heats. You want to get against Nuguse’s and Centro’s race tactics? Go right ahead. You counting out Hocker on a kick?
I think it will be difficult for an American to medal, because it is a deep field, but there will be AT LEAST 2 Americans in the Final.
Everyone keeps giving our guys times THEY HAVEN'T RUN. 3:33-3:35 just wont cut it.
2015 WC: Leo Manzano 3:30 guy....final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...final. Robby Andrews 3:34 guy....final.
2016 OG: Robby Andrews 3:34 guy...no final. Ben Blankenship 3:34 guy...in the final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...winner.
2017 WC: John Gregorek 3:35 guy....in the final. Robby Andrews....no final. Matt Centrowitz....no final.
2019 WC: Craig Engels 3:33 guy....in the final. Matt Centrowitz....no final. Ben Blankenship....no final.
3:30....easy in. 3:33-35....maybe 50/50...BUT internationally the 1500m is DEEP. This isn't 1984 anymore.
Alan
Runningart2004 wrote:
Everyone keeps giving our guys times THEY HAVEN'T RUN. 3:33-3:35 just wont cut it.
2015 WC: Leo Manzano 3:30 guy....final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...final. Robby Andrews 3:34 guy....final.
2016 OG: Robby Andrews 3:34 guy...no final. Ben Blankenship 3:34 guy...in the final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...winner.
2017 WC: John Gregorek 3:35 guy....in the final. Robby Andrews....no final. Matt Centrowitz....no final.
2019 WC: Craig Engels 3:33 guy....in the final. Matt Centrowitz....no final. Ben Blankenship....no final.
3:30....easy in. 3:33-35....maybe 50/50...BUT internationally the 1500m is DEEP. This isn't 1984 anymore.
Alan
Centro did make the final in 2019, and he'll make it this year again. I'd say Hocker did it as well.
steeplepeople wrote:
I think the following
0-20%
1-40%
2-30%
3-10%
80% that at least one will make it...maybe a bit high
Statistically I think it's just the best team OTHER people have sent. I don't have much faith in nuguse to be honest but in a non tactical race Centro and hocker bother will atleast make the final. Neither of them are going to break 3:30 so if it's fast like Monaco was we won't medal. But any races above 3:33 I'd say there is a chance, it's a small one but it's there.
Nobody is beating Hocker. Teare should have run the 1500 also so that we could win 2 medals.
i think one guy has run 334, two guys have run 335. hocker has proven unable to handle really fast times
He just turned 20. He is improving by the day. When is the last time that he lost a 1500 or mile in one of these fast races that you are referring to?
On the women's side I think it is maybe 60% we get one in the final.
Reach final,
Centrowitz Jr : 65%
Hocker : 60%
____________
However, I'd give less than 30% chances that any of them will finish in better position than 6th place.
Hocker is not only unproven on the international scene, but his time are weak on a global scale.
And for Centrowitz Jr it has been more than 3 years that he has had bad performances on the international scene.
In 2018 his Diamond results were : 8th place and 10th place.
In 2019 his World Championship results were : 9th place
Don't count 2020 because of the pandemic, but it's weird he hasn't even run a 1500m time trial type of event, at the very least.
Centro will b top 5 and others will not make it. The OG is a big boy race, not NCAA
Runningart2004 wrote:
Everyone keeps giving our guys times THEY HAVEN'T RUN. 3:33-3:35 just wont cut it.
2015 WC: Leo Manzano 3:30 guy....final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...final. Robby Andrews 3:34 guy....final.
2016 OG: Robby Andrews 3:34 guy...no final. Ben Blankenship 3:34 guy...in the final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...winner.
2017 WC: John Gregorek 3:35 guy....in the final. Robby Andrews....no final. Matt Centrowitz....no final.
2019 WC: Craig Engels 3:33 guy....in the final. Matt Centrowitz....no final. Ben Blankenship....no final.
3:30....easy in. 3:33-35....maybe 50/50...BUT internationally the 1500m is DEEP. This isn't 1984 anymore.
Alan
Hey Alan, I think 3:35 can definitely cut it. In 2016, NO ONE in any heat ran sub 3:38, and the final was won in 3:50! Tactics are important, and in this case, that just means having a kick is important.
I'd love a final where someone runs 3:32, but the last time that happened was 2000, and that was the OR.
I think they expect a total of 50 entrants. Not sure how many heats that will be but i think it's fair to assume that 2-3 americans will go through the heats, as roughly half the participants will go through.
Then two semi finals of 12 maybe, with top 6 qualifying for the finals. There's some serious competition this year, and i think it could go fast-ish , around 3:33-3:35 if it's semi-tactical.
I think 1-2 americans will get boxed in/trapped into a false pace and miss out.
So I'd say 1 American in the final most probable. Not sure who, too many factors to predict.
Ok7272 wrote:
i think one guy has run 334, two guys have run 335. hocker has proven unable to handle really fast times
2:49.89 for 1200m indoors, with added 13:19 'strength' on the top of that and ya think he can't handle a fast pace? I say 2:51 is his comfortably fast pace for 1200m enroute. He's got a 3:31-3:32 in him yet this summer.
suspicion in the ignition wrote:
Runningart2004 wrote:
Everyone keeps giving our guys times THEY HAVEN'T RUN. 3:33-3:35 just wont cut it.
2015 WC: Leo Manzano 3:30 guy....final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...final. Robby Andrews 3:34 guy....final.
2016 OG: Robby Andrews 3:34 guy...no final. Ben Blankenship 3:34 guy...in the final. Matt Centrowitz 3:30 guy...winner.
2017 WC: John Gregorek 3:35 guy....in the final. Robby Andrews....no final. Matt Centrowitz....no final.
2019 WC: Craig Engels 3:33 guy....in the final. Matt Centrowitz....no final. Ben Blankenship....no final.
3:30....easy in. 3:33-35....maybe 50/50...BUT internationally the 1500m is DEEP. This isn't 1984 anymore.
Alan
Hey Alan, I think 3:35 can definitely cut it. In 2016, NO ONE in any heat ran sub 3:38, and the final was won in 3:50! Tactics are important, and in this case, that just means having a kick is important.
I'd love a final where someone runs 3:32, but the last time that happened was 2000, and that was the OR.
Cheruiyot, Ingebrigtsen and Mcsweyn will be in that final, 3 phenomenal runners that have an interest in it being fast from the gun. Cheruiyot ran 3:29 to win WC in 2019 and that worked like a charm for him, in what world does a 3:35 race benefit him more than a sub-3:30?
I don't know how fit the Americans are, but this is gonna be fast.