Did Hobbs Kessler make a mistake to go pro?

Buy low, sell high.

Hobbs signed on the dotted line and got paid BEFORE getting eliminated in the semis.

Smart man.

He was at his peak marketability. Smartest thing he could have done.

Honestly just depends on how much they paid him

There’s not a huge gap between him and the pros. He beat a ton in his 3:34 and was only a second behind Engels. Right now there’s a huge experience gap for sure, but he can get experience as a pro while getting college paid for + a paycheck. On top of that, there’s not a ton of people on his level that he could train with at any college. I’m assuming Hocker and Teare are going pro after the trials, so there’s not really any teams with multiple 3:34 or faster people to train with. If he continues training with pros, he gets pro training and pro experience.

Experience racing is much easier to gain than time is to cut.

The best analogy to draw is with Drew Hunter. He had way more racing experience than Kessler after his senior year, but he wasn’t a 3:34 guy. It’ll be easier for Kessler to get some racing experience than it would have been for Hunter to run 3:34 after his senior year.

Barring a huge injury, I fully expect Kessler to make the finals next year, if not the team.

No. His performance today does not change the fact he has run 3:34. Going pro was the correct decision.

oly the piano wrote:

He was at his peak marketability. Smartest thing he could have done.

Exactly. Buy low sell high figuratively speaking is right too. Timing was perfect for him. Drew Hunter got paid doing the same thing. If they can save their money they'll be set up well. They could even get a decent job after, you dont need a college education to make money although it could help certain people. Never too late to go back to school either.

LRC only cares that he gets paid. All other factors don’t matter. He locked in a contract and will get paid.

The official LRC answer is no.

What was he going to study in school that would be as or more important to him as his current track career?

With what he's getting paid, he could probably go to college eventually if track ultimately doesn't work out and he wants to do something else.

Drew Hunter is getting a degree on adidas’s dime. It sounds like Hobbs is going to do the same.

100% correct.

There is so little money in this sport, you must take it when you get offered it (unless you have something up your sleeve/leverage: Hocker right now).

Who the f&^% know what happens to this guy after four years in college?? Kid rolls an ankle, significantly strains a muscle, gets hit by a car, distracted by girls/beer, etc --> all those dollars evaporate (and you're just another BA/BS with so-so grades from a so-so school living a miserable life of what-ifs).

Our most "potentialled" guys of the last decade (Verbukis, Fernadez) did the "college system" and came out with less (nothing).

Kessler needs a professional environment (tough for a kid to adjust to) that will develop him as an athlete understanding he's a teen. Case studies to avoid: Webb, Cain, Hunter (hope he gets back).

Krispy is here to help/advise if necessary.

BYURun4Her wrote:

Clearly talented for high school, but there’s a good gap between him and elite runners. Doubt he makes much as a “pro” and he could have gotten great training and exposure at a place like NAU or Oregon or a great education at an Ivy, Duke, or Stanford.

Nope. Not a mistake at all. Runners can only make a career out of running for so long, and they offered him the money now. He's not yet physically there yet to handle rounds, but he will do great things as a runner. College was not necessary. He can get a degree later on.

Absolutely not. His stock was high so it was smart of him to sign a pro contract. He can still get an education while training. He's already coached by Ron Warhurst. It's a no brainer. Sure, he might not make teams RIGHT AWAY but he's got a GREAT chance to in his lifetime.

BYURun4Her wrote:

Clearly talented for high school, but there’s a good gap between him and elite runners. Doubt he makes much as a “pro” and he could have gotten great training and exposure at a place like NAU or Oregon or a great education at an Ivy, Duke, or Stanford.

He probably gets paid ~$400K/year considering what Drew Hunter makes…don’t minimize that type of money

This question can be debated endlessly - or at least until he has a big enough body of pro work to discern the answer.

Given the financial benefit and his talent/times - no it wasn't a mistake. US trials was his first big meet at this level and I wouldn't put much stock in his poor semifinal. He'll learn.

On the other hand, he's SO young and the NCAA is such a great segue from high school to pros - coaching, facilities, less pressure - and still the ability to dabble in higher level competitions. Plus, obviously, an NCAA athlete doesn't have to stay all four years.

I'd say it's way to early to tell if turning pro out of high school was a mistake.

There's no way he's getting 400k a year. He's relatively unknown and an investment for Adidas. The Hunter deal was for many years and not that much per year. Best guess is he's getting 200k a year with some bonus incentives (like the one he just lost out on for not making the olympic team).

I think it's a more safe bet as a high school male then female to go pro instead of college

However, they definitely made a mistake not getting him into any race with rounds.

For all three hype about his time vs the times in the NCAA. They were going through a ringer plus a conference meet that prepared them better for this then what Hobbs did.

Either they should have tried to find something with rounds or they should have used their resources to make a mini championship with them somehow.

Not making it out of the semis is definitely an inexperience issue

AP5000 wrote:

There's no way he's getting 400k a year. He's relatively unknown and an investment for Adidas. The Hunter deal was for many years and not that much per year. Best guess is he's getting 200k a year with some bonus incentives (like the one he just lost out on for not making the olympic team).

One of the brojos has consistently said he heard Hunters deal was 400k for 10 years (4 mil total).

If we are to believe that, I can’t imagine Kessler’s isn’t at least 500k per year, even if it’s shorter.

Whatever it is, it better be more than Hunter.

BYURun4Her wrote:

Clearly talented for high school, but there’s a good gap between him and elite runners. Doubt he makes much as a “pro” and he could have gotten great training and exposure at a place like NAU or Oregon or a great education at an Ivy, Duke, or Stanford.

you wanted hobbs kessler, a 3:34 guy in high school to go run for duke or any ivy??

honestly doubt if harvard can even keep their fast freshman who broke 13:30 this year

First of all Kessler got much more than Hunter, anyone who doesnt get that should go back to deals 101.

10 months ago he was a 4: 08 1600 guy once , one day and ran an 8:53 3200M TT

When Ron saw the the 4:08 he told me he would break 4 minutes in the mile

I said , easy there Ron... he said I know what it looks like

He then ran 3:57.xx indoors

I talked to a completely different coach today, he said this kid is a medalist, he is pretty stoic on his praise

Back to back 4:02 like mile efforts would crush a lot of kids, he ran the 6th fastest last 300 in two days

He is the best kid I have ever seen and thats a lot of guys