What % of seven foot tall Americans end up in the NBA?

don’t you have a 17% chance of making it(at least a pro league)if you’re 7 foot unless that’s a made up stat.

The stat is that if you're a man between 20 and 40 in the U.S., and you're 7 feet or taller, there's a 17% chance you're in the NBA right now. It's in The Sports Gene.

The chance of ending up in the NBA at some point must be significantly higher, since most 7 footers have careers significantly shorter than 20 years.

800 dude wrote:

The stat is that if you're a man between 20 and 40 in the U.S., and you're 7 feet or taller, there's a 17% chance you're in the NBA right now. It's in The Sports Gene.

I would not trust the statistical analysis of The Sports Gene. If author of Sports Gene took number of seven footers in N.B.A. divided by number of seven footers in U.S., 20 to 40, the math will be incorrect. The correct formula: number of seven footers in N.B.A. divided by number of seven footers globally between ages 20 to 40.

Most estimates are that there are not more than 3,000 7-footers in the world's human population. The U.S. probably has a somewhat disproportionate number of those; but the American population is something under 5% of the world's total, so I'd guess 200 Americans, absolute max, are 7-0 or taller.

This source suggests that an American seven-footer has a one-in-six chance of playing in the NBA, which has only about 26 (several of whom are not Americans):

https://www.a1squad.com/post/how-many-7-footers-are-in-the-nba

Obviously many or most of current American seven-footers are past playing age, so the real question, as the OP suggests, is whether they have *ever* played in the NBA. Speaking purely subjectively, that "one-in-six" seems a little high to me, but even with a conservative estimate it could be 10% or more make the NBA at some point, though maybe only briefly.

In any case, the great majority of American seven-footers *don't* end up in the NBA. Many of those guys have fairly serious health or mobility conditions that put the NBA, or any serious sports, completely out of the question. Big guys who are capable of moving athletically like Kareem or Wilt, or even like Mark Eaton, are a very distinct minority.

Your assumption that a disproportion number of seven footers are U.S. citizens is an incorrect assumption. Central Europeans are disproportionately likely to be seven feet tall.

the math is probably wrong wrote:

lease wrote:

Most estimates are that there are not more than 3,000 7-footers in the world's human population. The U.S. probably has a somewhat disproportionate number of those; but the American population is something under 5% of the world's total, so I'd guess 200 Americans, absolute max, are 7-0 or taller.

Your assumption that a disproportion number of seven footers are U.S. citizens is an incorrect assumption. Central Europeans are disproportionately likely to be seven feet tall.

I've worked with people from the Balkans. I find it easy to believe that 7-footers are overrepresented in the populations of Central Europe--even though the tallest men (on average) are in the Netherlands.

But does that mean that the USA can't *also* have a "somewhat disproportionate number" of seven-footers? Not at all. The USA has a well-nourished (or over-nourished!) and fairly well-educated population, two factors that correlate with greater height. For billions of other humans, those factors are not as much in play, and in some countries smaller stature may have been genetically selected for as well.

In any case, my main point was the relative *rarity* (couple hundred, max) of American seven-footers...even *if* the country has somewhat more than its "fair share."

You did research since I posted. Your research verified that Central Europeans are tall. Are you considering those from Netherlands northern European? U.S. has been welcoming many from Central America and some from SE Asia plus some South Americans, so U.S. citizens are not that tall. Give Bolivians a well balanced diet. It will take a dozen plus generations to make Bolivians taller if that is possible. I do not think Bolivians are short due to malnutrition though. Many seven footers are seven footers not because they have 6'4" plus mothers and 6'11" plus fathers. Many seven footers are tall due to gland malfunctions. Moses Malone's parents were 5'8" 5'4". To play in N.B.A., it is best to be 6'4" to 6'10" and athletic as opposed simply being 7 feet tall.

Mask off, party on wrote:

Gotta be high.

Probably

I did some research on this a few years ago for a lecture I gave.

"Only .2% to .5% of high school athletes make it to the professional level. But youth sports is largely focused on achieving this goal.

Of 550,305 male high schoolers playing basketball in the USA only 55 are drafted to the NBA. There was a 3.4% chance of playing in the NCAA (all divisions) if you played at high school. There was then a 1.2% chance of playing in the NBA if you played in the NCAA.

If you are over 7 foot and born in the USA then there was about a 1/6 chance of being in the NB compared to a 1/10,000 chance if you played basketball at high school.

I do not think you should do this calculation of everyone in the world because you would have much less chance of being in the NBA if you were born outside the USA compared to the rest of the world. While there are many international athletes now competing the opportunities do not exist in other countries compared to the US.

Outstanding question.

I thought Letsrun was full of college educated geniuses? Where are the statisticians who can put a % on this?

It would be interesting to do a complete breakdown by height and see how your chances (presumably) decrease the shorter you are.

Next book idea for Malcolm Gladwell?

Footman wrote:

I do not think you should do this calculation of everyone in the world because you would have much less chance of being in the NBA if you were born outside the USA compared to the rest of the world. While there are many international athletes now competing the opportunities do not exist in other countries compared to the US.

This is so true for many things in life.

You already won the lottery if you were born in the USA. Opportunities are much smaller (or non-existent) elsewhere in the world.