Is Barega now the prohibitive 10k favorite?

Runnerofruns wrote:

Apart from the finishing time and close (both exceptional), the way he ran that race was absolutely top class. When he casually ratcheted pace from 65 —> 62 less than halfway through, he had the look of confidence and incredible fluidity that only the greatest champions have had at their peak (Geb, Bekele). Despite HIM being the one surging, he still had that sensational last 600.

This performance was very much in line with the gold medal performances of Bekele, Farah, and Cheptegei from recent championships. Have to think he’s in 26:30 fitness or better, and unless Chep is again in WR shape (he may be), I don’t see who beats Barega besides his own countryman Kejelcha, and he certainly was a touch less impressive yesterday (not just the last lap, but overall race fitness and savvy).

I think he certainly puts himself in the discussion with a 52.7 last lap as part of a fartlek-style 26:49 race. Jacob Kiplimo will be a formidable competitor as well. That last lap is historically elite, and in fact faster than what we've seen from Cheptegei and Farah in races 27:10 and under. I wouldn't call him prohibitive favorite but I do think he, Kiplimo and Cheptegei are now pretty even as far as gold medal chances which is not what I thought before the race.

1. Cheptegei

2. Kiplimo

3. Kipruto

4. Barega

The race is going to be a time trial world record attempt type race but the conditions in Tokyo will slow it down a bit. No one will have a kick at the end. Last lap for the winner will be over 60 with a winning time of 26:18.

Dragonflys 4% wrote:

1. Cheptegei

2. Kiplimo

3. Kipruto

4. Barega

The race is going to be a time trial world record attempt type race but the conditions in Tokyo will slow it down a bit. No one will have a kick at the end. Last lap for the winner will be over 60 with a winning time of 26:18.

The race will not be a “time trial world record attempt type race.” Really no chance of that happening.

Kipruto, Kandie, Kipruto, and Cheptegei all benefit from running the fastest time possible. They will certainly push the pace from the beginning. I could see an opening 5k I’m the sub 13:10 range.

Oops meant to say Kiplimo.

Dragonflys 4% wrote:

Kipruto, Kandie, Kipruto, and Cheptegei all benefit from running the fastest time possible. They will certainly push the pace from the beginning. I could see an opening 5k I’m the sub 13:10 range.

They cannot all benefit from trying to run the fastest time possible, and remember leading the race can be a detriment, certainly physically but also psychologically. There is almost zero chance the race goes out in under 13:10. It would be shocking.

pacer lights will be set at 25.59 pace. Whoever falls off that pace, or is in last place after 10 laps on, should be pulled off the track. That is how it should be run. Only allowed to sprint last 400m, going early is also a DQ.

In a race over 27 minutes I would say pretty much all of them can’t medal. In a race under 26:30 all four of them have a chance at a medal and probably three of them will medal.

So yes a fast pace benefits all four athletes.

I could see some teamwork between the Kenyan athletes as they probably fair the worst in a tactical race.

I would be shocked if it didn’t go out under 13:15. Remember that 13:36 is the pace these guys all went out in for the first 5ks of the half marathon this past December.

Dragonflys 4% wrote:

In a race over 27 minutes I would say pretty much all of them can’t medal. In a race under 26:30 all four of them have a chance at a medal and probably three of them will medal.

So yes a fast pace benefits all four athletes.

I could see some teamwork between the Kenyan athletes as they probably fair the worst in a tactical race.

I would be shocked if it didn’t go out under 13:15. Remember that 13:36 is the pace these guys all went out in for the first 5ks of the half marathon this past December.

Well they all cannot medal as you listed 4 and there are only 3 spots. Sometimes what matters is not just your sprint speed but what you have in the tank. IF the Ugandans are in 26:25 shape, then both can finish fast in a 27:05 race. Remember Kiplimo defeated Jakob Ingebrigtsen in a 3000m last year, showing some speed at the finish.

There's been a lot of speculation about how fast the race will go with so many guys who will theoretically want to turn the race into a test of pure strength (e.g. Cheptegei, Kandie, Kamworor possibly). I tend to think Kiplimo, Kimeli (if he doubles), Ahmed, Barega and Kejelcha are perfectly fine with a slower race. That being said there is so much talent in here I can't see a pace slower than 13:35-13:40 for the first 5K, and from there the last 3,000 is going to get hammered by Cheptegei and Kandie.

Mentilly wrote:

Remember Kiplimo defeated Jakob Ingebrigtsen in a 3000m last year, showing some speed at the finish.

He defeated Barega to in the 3000m.

He defeated Cheptegei in the half marathon

Kiplimo is the jocker unknown card.

I think Kiplimo has also the second faster time in 3000m in history for the category less than 16 years.

(I need IAAF references here)

Kiplimo is the favorite, in my opinion.

The average temperature in Tokyo in July/Aug is mid-80s with a dew point of 73 and 72%. The chance of a heroic pace in a distance event died with Sammy Wanjiru, folks.

Kiplimo is great. I don't think we should call him unbeatable though. He beat Barega at 5,000, but that was after Barega went out at WR pace and fell off. Kiplimo paced himself smarter and capitalized. He won the World Half title, but that was after Kandie went for it early and ran out of gas. Kandie ran smarter in their rematch and then beat him and got the World Record. Cheptegei beat him in Cross Country at the World Champs too. I'd tend to think he is droppable in the last 1600 of a fast 10,000 if Cheptegei and Kandie really turn the screws on him.

Dragonflys 4% wrote:

1. Cheptegei

2. Kiplimo

3. Kipruto

4. Barega

The race is going to be a time trial world record attempt type race but the conditions in Tokyo will slow it down a bit. No one will have a kick at the end. Last lap for the winner will be over 60 with a winning time of 26:18.

There is a 0% chance that the last lap split for the winner will be over 60.

Barega beat Kijelcha by .2 seconds yesterday. At Doha Cheptegei beat Kijelcha by .9 seconds and most of that was the last 75 meters or so as Cheptegei pulled away.

So once again Cheptegei’s closing speed is under estimated on these boards.

The Kenyan that lead the first 5k in 13:23 ran a 13:40 second 5k, darn good.

But the K’s and the U’s at the Olympics will probably be out that fast and then they will speed up. So the E’s won’t, so easily, be able to catch up as they did yesterday.

At Doha the E’s did not lead, they just followed. The pace is going to be so fast because of the 4 front runners I’ve mentioned in other threads know that it is suicide to let the pace be slow and then try to push for four laps to go. They will begin to ratchet down at the 5k mark.

I just can’t wait til that 10k final. Men’s and women’s.

Based off your post, I’m fairly certain you did not actually watch yesterday’s race….

1) Barega casually dropped 62s laps 3 times in surges just to break his compatriots. Considering his win, it worked.

2) I did not intend to slight Cheptegei’s closing speed, which is proven to be outstanding and related to his incredible strength. But “X beat Y by more than Z beat Y” is really faulty logic. A better comparison is the 2019 world championships, where Cheptegei closed in 61, 55 for his last 2 laps and pulled away from Kejelcha. Both of the top Ethiopians (Barega and Kejelcha) showed superior form to that championship race yesterday, at the back end of a surge-laden, yo-yo type race.

It was truly impressive.

I did watch . Surging only occurs when the pace slows down. The E’ won’t be able to go down to 59-60 if 62-63’s are being hammered out.