Athing Mu, Hobbs Kessler, Erriyon Knighton, Max Burgin, or someone else
I'd have to go with knighton, this is only the middle of his 3rd track season and he was able to break a world junior record.
Athing Mu, Hobbs Kessler, Erriyon Knighton, Max Burgin, or someone else
I'd have to go with knighton, this is only the middle of his 3rd track season and he was able to break a world junior record.
Mu>Hobbs=Knighton>Burgin
Mu has very few women to contend with that can run 49.x (or less) and 1:58.x (or less).
334 and 10.10 guys are all over.
1:44.1 guys are also not uncommon.
Mu medals in Tokyo.
Knighton has a punchers chance.
Kessler has little chance.
Burgin has little chance as well.
I guess not quite a junior, but Jacob Kiplimo (7:26/12:48/26:33/57:37) is only 20 years old. Maybe if he wins double gold in Tokyo, he can be honorarily considered 'biggest junior talent'? What was Bekele running at age 20, or in his comparable first serious season or two on the track?
Looks like his first breakout track season occurred in 2003 when he was 20/21, and ran 7:30/12:52/26:49 (the 7:30 coming in 2002). Kiplimo seems a bit ahead.
Some African you never heard of.
talent eval man wrote:
Mu>Hobbs=Knighton>Burgin
Mu has very few women to contend with that can run 49.x (or less) and 1:58.x (or less).
334 and 10.10 guys are all over.
1:44.1 guys are also not uncommon.
Mu medals in Tokyo.
Knighton has a punchers chance.
Kessler has little chance.
Burgin has little chance as well.
20.11 at 17 years 4 months is not common at all.
talent eval man wrote:
Mu>Hobbs=Knighton>Burgin
Mu has very few women to contend with that can run 49.x (or less) and 1:58.x (or less).
334 and 10.10 guys are all over.
1:44.1 guys are also not uncommon.
Mu medals in Tokyo.
Knighton has a punchers chance.
Kessler has little chance.
Burgin has little chance as well.
I would rank their Tokyo medal chances as 1) Mu 2) Burgin ... (a gap) ... 3) Knighton 4) Kessler
Their ages however are not quite the same.
Erriyon Knighton - 17 years, 4 months
Hobbes Kessler - 18 years, 3 months
Athing Mu - 18 years, 11 months (turns 19 next Tuesday)
Max Burgin - 19 years, 0 months (ran his recent 1:44.14 PB the day before his 19th birthday)
(Nor are their events)
If I were asked their likelihood of career success, I would say 1. Mu 2. ? 3. ? 4. ? - Total toss-up.
Hopefully they’ll run 19.3/1:41/1:54/3:28 one day.
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=jtFEzhaNrT4Points wise right now I think its
W - Mboma 49.22 1237 pts
M - Knighton 20.11 1203 pts
if you just take their single best event. Mu would need 1:55.91 or better to win on points (by which time Mboma may have got faster too...)
I should have added mboma, but we should consider that her mark was set at a very high altitude.
It would be either athing mu,or the two namibian 400 meter runners.
fasterrr wrote:
I should have added mboma, but we should consider that her mark was set at a very high altitude.
I'd like to see Mu race the two Namibians where it counts. After all they are her closest peers.
Might be Sasha Zhoya, although he's not done much in 2021.
Athing Mu is one of the best athletes in the world right now full stop though.
fasterrr wrote:
I should have added mboma, but we should consider that her mark was set at a very high altitude.
It seems she has also done 49.24 in Lusaka which is also at altitude but less than Windhoek. The only paper I can quickly find came up with a simulated correction of 0.07s per 500m? OTOH the difference between Windhoek and Lusaka is ~420m.
13 MAR 2021 AN Grand Prix Leg1, Vineta Stadium, Swakopmund NAMNAM F F 1. 51.59
27 MAR 2021 AN Grand Prix Leg3, Independence Stadium, Oshakati NAMNAM F F4 1. 50.97
11 APR 2021 All Comers Meet, National Heroes Stadium, Lusaka ZAMZAM F F1 1. 49.24
17 APR 2021 Namibian Ch., Independence Stadium, Windhoek NAMNAM B H1 1. 56.04
17 APR 2021 Namibian Ch., Independence Stadium, Windhoek NAMNAM B F 1. 49.22
29 MAY 2021 AGN League 3, Bestmed Tuks Stadium, Pretoria RSARSA F F2 1. 50.10
Right now Mu is the best of this group, but she is only the WL because the women’s 800 is weak right now. Tsegay or Kipyegon could run much faster than 1:57.7 if they gave it a real shot. Kipyegon ran 2:29, that’s worth at least 1:55, and Tsegay ran 1:57-low indoors, also worth 1:55-1:56 outdoors. Burgin is pretty much equivalent to Mu, maybe a bit worse, but ranked much lower because there are many 1:41-1:43 runners currently active. Kessler is a step behind them, but he’s also a bit younger. Knighton is the youngest of them all, and though 20.11 is maybe equivalent to 3:34, not 1:57.7 or 1:44.1, he’s by far the top future prospect, breaking a Usain Bolt record is absolutely astonishing and he has a similar build to Bolt as well. I’m not going to go crazy and say he will run 19.1 or 19.0, but I would be unsurprised to see him one day run under 19.5 and quite possibly under 19.3.
the running really fast appreciator wrote:
Might be Sasha Zhoya, although he's not done much in 2021.
Athing Mu is one of the best athletes in the world right now full stop though.
"he's not done much in 2021" - what an idiot I am.
12.72 over the junior hurdles. Very special talent
Tina Clayton of Jamaica. Just turned 17 this week and ran 11.09 in Kenya. Looks like she can go faster. Remember her name.
Most talented is certainly up for debate but Knighton and Mboma are probably up there. Knighton may break bolts WRs down the line, and Mboma will probably run under 21 in a few years.
thats an easy one.christine mboma.
Zhoya definitely should be on the list
Mboma
Masilingi