Starno wrote:
For the 1500, I think with Cheruiyot and Jakob 3:32:07 will fall. Jakob knows Cheruiyot has incredible finishing speed, and so it's in his interest to heat things up as soon as possible. While at the same time Cheruiyot isn't the kind to sit back and wait.
For the 5000, we will probably have at least 6 guys in sub 12:50 shape. I think 12:57:82 will fall.
What does Jakob have to gain by heating things up? As long as the pace is reasonable he will torch everyone else, but it doesn’t really matter whether they run 3:28 or 3:33, he’s not catching Tim. He is well behind over 800m (1:43 vs 1:46) and hasn’t shown 3:26 - 3:27 ability like Tim has.
The 5k will be interesting. It feels weird saying this but I don’t see how Cheptegei can win over guys like Barega and Kiplimo unless the pace is absurdly fast. He doesn’t seem to have the finishing ability of past record holders and Olympic champions.
I agree with your assessment that both records have a good chance of falling and wouldn’t be surprised to see the 10k record go as well.