What does he do in the final? Sub 20 in favorable conditions?
What does he do in the final? Sub 20 in favorable conditions?
His heat had good conditions he ran and through the line hard so I can see him running .2 secs faster in a race where he's pushed.He doesn't seem to be in sub 20 shape yet, but I could be wrong.
I could see 19.98 with a +2m/s wind
I'd say he had ok conditions with a +0.4 m/s wind.
Laird had a good heat with +1.8 m/s. Hopefully the final will be something along those lines.
I was talking about the temperature humidity amd wind, but yeah 1.8 would be nice
Bolling will not make the finals of the 100 or 200 at the Olympic Trials. Take it to the bank.
For sure not the 100. Has an outside shot in the 2, it’s all about rounds.
Prelim times mean nothing unless they are something like 3:34 solo😁
Boling will run between 10.00 and 10.10 basic between now and the trials. That gives him a fair shot at the final of the 100 at the trials, though he's obviously not a shoe-in with that.
Boling 2019: 10.13 basic; 20.25 basic
His 200 is almost exactly twice as fast as his 100. He just ran a basic 20.30 in the prelim of the 200. If he was gunning all out for the whole 200, that would indicate he's in 10.15 shape.
I just did the splits and he ran ~10.33 around the bend. My usual bend "penalty" for most runners is 0.20-0.30 seconds.**** Boling was obviously gunning it around the curve but it suggests he is anywhere between 10.03 and 10.13 basic in the 100 right now. My thought since the outdoor results began coming in has been that Boling has been in heavy training this whole time and they'd only give his CNS sufficient recovery when champs season rolled around. That's probably confirmed by even just this prelim in the 200.
Still, Laird is in another class over 200 and is at least co-favorite to win the 100. His 10.06 (+1.7) is worth around 10.14 basic. The LSU track is super fast but I don't think that's even Laird's ceiling in the shorter sprint.
Fanbulleh will be really interesting to watch and may have something to say about all this.
*** I fought with a bunch of people on another forum about my 0.20-0.30 penalty, which I've deduced from tons of splits in both relays and 200s; the primary objection has been something like "That would mean Michael Johnson was in 9.8x shape in Atlanta! No way!" I'll be happy to fight on in this forum too, but my position will remain: MJ probably could have run low 9.8 that night, had he run an open 100. That's neither here nor there; if you doubt it's 0.20-0.30, do 0.15-0.25 and you get that Boling is in 10.08-10.18 shape right now. I can't imagine anyone thinking the penalty is even less than 0.15.
FWIW, I've got Laird at 10.36-10.39 around the curve. He was clearly pushing it too at that point. That gives you a 10.06-10.16 basic for Laird right now (if you think the wind is a wash on the curve). Laird's basic best is 10.14. Laird is going to make the Olympic final in the 200.
I agree with your points I have a hard time believing Johnson couldn't run sub 10 if he gave it an honest try,he just feared being injured.
LongTimer wrote:
FWIW, I've got Laird at 10.36-10.39 around the curve. He was clearly pushing it too at that point. That gives you a 10.06-10.16 basic for Laird right now (if you think the wind is a wash on the curve). Laird's basic best is 10.14. Laird is going to make the Olympic final in the 200.
Alotof people where saying Laird has peaked but, I've heard he's been taking it easy a little bit so he can run at the trials. I can see a 19.63-70 for him.
Agreed, 19.7x would not surprise me.
Lenny Leonard wrote:
Bolling will not make the finals of the 100 or 200 at the Olympic Trials. Take it to the bank.
No one cares what you think and whether or not he makes it doesn’t diminish his accomplishment so far. But you are a loser for posting that.
loseralert.... wrote:
Lenny Leonard wrote:
Bolling will not make the finals of the 100 or 200 at the Olympic Trials. Take it to the bank.
No one cares what you think and whether or not he makes it doesn’t diminish his accomplishment so far. But you are a loser for posting that.
Ouch, baby. Very ouch.
Why do we think Laird is in a league of his own when Boling beat him indoors?
birdbeard2 wrote:
Why do we think Laird is in a league of his own when Boling beat him indoors?
The difference in outdoor performance currently, and although Boling probably isn't in peak shape laird may not be either.
Boling being/having been in heavy training makes sense, but he needs to eventually prove it. Trials would be best, of course. Totally agree about possible CNS fatigue, good point. The at’s what he “looks like”, if there is any such look.
In the 100, there are too many guys gunning for spots. Look at these guys, all ahead of Boling:
Bromell
Baker (had a bout with covid but will be fast)
Gatlin
Rodgers
Gillespie
Lyles if he runs
King
Young
Bednarek
Belcher? Burrell? Laird? Bracy? Robinson?
Boling needs to show something in the 100 before he can be considered for the final.
Regarding the turn penalty, it totally depends on the particular athlete. For some, yes, 0.30–for MJ even in lane 3, maybe 0.10-0.15 max. For CL in lane 3. 0.40 or more. My guess is for Laird, close to nothing in lanes 5 and out.
Laird is a machine, love that guy. Fahnbulleh is fun to watch reeling in his competitors. Boling is a wildcard right now.
Makes it exciting, for sure. IMO this 20.27 might indicate 10.15 at best.
I love track season
Laird is in a class by himself in the 200, despite losing to Boling indoors, because all evidence suggests that Laird has elite speed maintenance ability that Boling lacks.
In 2017, Laird ran 10.42 and 20.41, both personal bests at the time - his 200 was less than 2x his 100. His current 200 PR of 19.81 is less than 2x than his 10.06 (don’t have time for wind right now). Etc.
Boling is like most sprinters, where 2x his 100 generally equals close to his 200. Maybe something is different this year that would change that, but I’ve seen nothing to tell me that’s the case.
If Boling is at the fast end of my estimate at 10.03 basic, he will likely come in around 20.06 or thereabouts in the 200 final. That won’t be enough to beat Laird.
Typo - 2018 for laird, not 2017
Laird in Lane 6, Boling Lane 7 200 final.
The 200 final is just 1 hour after the 100m final. I think the scheduling is poor.
100 heats and finals could have been handled today. It will have some effect on the 200 final.
Laird should win, but they may be even coming off turn. It may push Boling to 19.99 with favorable conditions, but Laird will win by at least .1-.15
Here he comes.. wrote:
What does he do in the final? Sub 20 in favorable conditions?
20.10ish at best