Hobbes Kessler should 110% go pro

He's currently signed with NAU. He's really a new runner, and getting coaching from Mike Smith and training with those guys will certainly be challenging enough. Maybe he goes pro if the progression goes well for 2024, but he's not getting the real money really since he's not at the moment looking at a spot in Tokyo.

Maybe you say if it ain't broke, don't fix it, but being a signee of Mike Smith before all of this happened as well as the fact that by all account Smith is an amazing coach who individualizes and more importantly protects his young, famous runners from getting too star struck will heavily aid in him turning from a runner with way too much talent with little experience to an elite runner ready to handle the pressures of the world stage.

5000m fan wrote:

Why fix what ain’t broke? Surely a shoe company would pay for his college and he could stay training with warhurst. He’s better than drew hunter was in HS and adidas gave him a ton of money. Discus

Both options are good. Getting to train with Nico and others under a pro-level coach in Mike Smith at altitude is going to give him a ton of room to improve. I think his focus should be on track, and I know XC is a huge emphasis of the program, so that would be my lone concern for him. That being said, plenty of guys like Nuguse, Hoppel and Centro seem to do fine in building strength and preserving speed for the track through XC.

Kessler is unlikely to make this year's team but there are Championships every year from 2022-2025. So going to college and winning an NCAA title before going pro is going to maximize his value. He's not in the Cole Hocker position just yet.

I think there’s something to be said with staying with a coach throughout an entire career. Obviously the best example of this is Rupp, who stayed under Salazar from high school (2005?) through 2018-2019. Setting a ton of AR’s, national titles, Olympic medals. Of course, ending when Salazar was suspended.

So much of success in the sport is dependent on trusting the system you’re in. Obviously, Ron Warhurst is knocking it out of the park right now with Kessler, and has a nice little group in Ann Arbor to push him along (Nick Willis, Mason Ferlic, a couple other amateur guys).

I just worry that when you send a very green kid off into a new system there’s so many variables. Away from home for the first time, new coach, new teammates, altitude, you just can’t be certain how the kid will respond to it. On the other hand, staying in Ann Arbor is a safe bet.

I think obviously Mike Smith is an intelligent coach and hopefully there will be some “turnover” dialogue between him and Warhurst to ease the transition, but you just can’t always predict the human element of the sport. Maybe the kid will hate being away from home, maybe he won’t like/respond to the altitude, you just never know for sure.

All that said the kid is a tremendous talent, I hope to see him go on the do amazing things. But in my arm chair quarterback opinion, I say go pro (take the $$) and be a part-time student at UM under Warhurst.

Drew runs well at HS *LR criticises for going pro early*

Hobbs runs well at HS *LR suggests going pro*

Ridiculous. Go to College, if you're a real talent and have a good coach, you'll continue progressing and contracts will be there for you after college.

Well, in Rupp's case he is flourishing away from Salazar...under Mike Smith. Smith just seems like a remarkable coach. He's doing a great job with Nico Young who had a big-time HS coach as well. Warhurst is available to go back to a la Webb and Raczko (sp.) if things don't work out with Mike Smith.

Go pro because maybe you aren't a real talent and that will be revealed during college. Hunter was a genius to get the contract he got. Where is Slagowski or Mason? But Hunter has college paid and $1M.

"getting too star struck."

What could that possibly mean?

Go run fast and jump wrote:

Go pro because maybe you aren't a real talent and that will be revealed during college. Hunter was a genius to get the contract he got. Where is Slagowski or Mason? But Hunter has college paid and $1M.

Not so simple for guys who run 3:59 or so. Like Reed Brown, I don't think he would've gotten paid much. He's progressing nicely, gets to run on a loaded Oregon team with world-class facilities and coaching. If he continues on this path, he'll go Pro with some national titles/AAs (maybe just titles on the DMR) in the bag and good prospects for a decent enough contract. Those 4 years he has will be great and he'll still get to be a pro.

SDSU Aztec wrote:

"getting too star struck."

What could that possibly mean?

It's handling the sudden fame and more importantly pressure of having to compete at a high level and consistently handling that pressure. If you watch any Mike Smith interviews its a big emphasis of his in terms of protecting the psyche and helping his runners cope with the enormous pressure put on them by themselves and the world. That man s@#ts on FloTrack harder than just about anyone for that reason.

Go run fast and jump wrote:

Go pro because maybe you aren't a real talent and that will be revealed during college. Hunter was a genius to get the contract he got. Where is Slagowski or Mason? But Hunter has college paid and $1M.

Hunter does not have college paid, obviously

His contract covers all college costs.

We aren't talking about a guy who ran 3:59 outdoor at 19 years old. We are talking about the fastest indoor miler of all time who just made the other elite 2 milers look silly. He can get a Hunter type contract this year.

I believe that Coach Smith has a bachelor degree in psychology, I think more coaches need education in that area. Yeah a major part of coaching is designing a training program but I believe the psychology is just as important. Especially when dealing with 18-20 year olds whom provably never been away from home. Whom need help dealing with high pressure and expectations. Even a vet like Rupp understood the importance of what Smith had to offer from a psychological aspect. Rupp knows how to train but he also knows the mental challenges the sport is. Especially if you want to longevity in it. So imo all high school stars should go to NAU. It’s only gonna make America distance running better.

Go pro with who? Tinbeta?

Could not agree more. Smith is a terrific coach, but Kessler is at a level where what he’s doing is really working. Take the money, don’t over race per the typical college program, & get the Michigan degree. The Michigan degree alone is worth staying in Ann Arbor.

C’mon, this ain’t rocket science. Running doesn’t last forever. It could last for ten years or be over tomorrow. Or just run for Michigan with some input from Warhurst & don’t race too much.

Mr. T 2024 wrote:

I believe that Coach Smith has a bachelor degree in psychology, I think more coaches need education in that area. Yeah a major part of coaching is designing a training program but I believe the psychology is just as important. Especially when dealing with 18-20 year olds whom provably never been away from home. Whom need help dealing with high pressure and expectations. Even a vet like Rupp understood the importance of what Smith had to offer from a psychological aspect. Rupp knows how to train but he also knows the mental challenges the sport is. Especially if you want to longevity in it. So imo all high school stars should go to NAU. It’s only gonna make America distance running better.

M.A.D.R.G.A.!!!

(Make American distance running great again)

I just don't think NAU is the right fit for him. NAU is a high mileage 10k oriented team. Kessler would be infinitely better off at Oregon under Ben Thomas.

Go run fast and jump wrote:

Go pro because maybe you aren't a real talent and that will be revealed during college. Hunter was a genius to get the contract he got. Where is Slagowski or Mason? But Hunter has college paid and $1M.

Not just Hunter. Efraimson, German Fernandez (although he didn't join BTC before college), Mary Cain, the list goes on of runners who had amazing HS performances, got very lucrative contracts essentially guaranteeing their financial freedom for many years but then did not live up to the huge expectations that were set to them.

You can't really call him a genius tho. These runners don't accept the contracts thinking that they are 2nd class and will never get anything better, at that point they are dominating HS and think they will eventually compete in the Olympics for medals. Only insiders know that when Hunter and Fisher were roughly even in HS, Hunter already did very high-quality training under Tinman (70+ mpw, lots of CV workouts, tempos, etc.) whereas Fisher only ran 40-50 mpw and was just as much a soccer player as he was a runner back then. If Fisher can run similar times to Hunter on 30-40% less mileage (and not more intensity either), who is likely to be the more talented runner who will develop more later?

People focus too much on career path ("running in college would have made Hunter a god", "Fisher would be nowhere now had he gone pro instead of Stanford", etc.) when in reality the thing that really counts is how much/hard they trained in HS and how talented they originally were (Fisher always had better raw speed and form than Hunter, Hunter had to commit to long kicks over 300-600m to beat him in the races).

Go run fast and jump wrote:

Go pro because maybe you aren't a real talent and that will be revealed during college. Hunter was a genius to get the contract he got. Where is Slagowski or Mason? But Hunter has college paid and $1M.

I think it was less about Hunter being a genius and more about someone at adidas being not a genius.