Hobbs Kessler runs 8:39.04 2 mile with a 55 last lap

That race is tomorrow.

Thanks. Found it...

https://www.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=614854

So any predictions for the 2 mile? Does HK win and if so how fast?

Heartless wrote:

Thanks. Found it...

https://www.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=614854

Concupiscurd wrote:

So any predictions for the 2 mile? Does HK win and if so how fast?

Heartless wrote:

Thanks. Found it...

https://www.runnerspace.com/gprofile.php?mgroup_id=44531&do=news&news_id=614854

I'd be surprised if he doesn't win. I'm guessing he'll be between 8:40 and 8:45, maybe 8:42?

4:20 pace should feel like a tempo run for him at this point. I don’t see how he doesn’t run 8:30-:35 range, competition/weather permitting.

I’d expect a 4:10 2nd mile if the 1st is 4:20. So running 65 sec 400m pace for 6 laps, then going 62-58 over the last 800m... gives him low-8:30s.

horrible predictor wrote:

I'd be surprised if he doesn't win. I'm guessing he'll be between 8:40 and 8:45, maybe 8:42?

This is the likely outcome. If you look historically we have had a lot of 357-405 milers and only a couple break 840. If it was some pro race where he could sit behind 3 guys, I expect he could run mid 830s. Likely by himself at that pace? 840s

ddidididid wrote:

horrible predictor wrote:

I'd be surprised if he doesn't win. I'm guessing he'll be between 8:40 and 8:45, maybe 8:42?

This is the likely outcome. If you look historically we have had a lot of 357-405 milers and only a couple break 840. If it was some pro race where he could sit behind 3 guys, I expect he could run mid 830s. Likely by himself at that pace? 840s

This is correct.

There are some other very solid runners in the field. He may have company for 5-7 laps.

let's not assume Hobbs is a guaranteed win. We don't know what his endurance is like. After all, he's never been exactly a monster at xc. Obviously, he's extremely gifted. His best bet is to run like Centro did in his 8:41 in high school. Sit off the leader and neg split the last mile with a scorching final lap.

It is incredibly obvious you have no idea what you’re talking about lmao.

smooth brain wrote:

It is incredibly obvious you have no idea what you’re talking about lmao.

How ? Based on his training, Kessler seems like a speed based miler. His mile results are also far superior to his XC results, so mikkie's assumptions makes sense ... He came 2nd in his state meet (in weird format though .. ) yet he's the fastest hs miler ever. A guy who is better on the short distances should try to go for the win in the last 800/400.

fyi , I still think he'll win and would be very surprised if he lost, but I also think that mikkie's assumptions make some sense

8:39.04

it looked incredibly easy for him. probably could have gone 8:37 if he had taken the lead at 800 instead of 400, probably sub 8:35 if he had pushed the whole time.

Wow. I’m stating the blindingly obvious but this kid is really something special.

8:39 with a 56 last lap and didn’t even look like he was remotely working. Have to think he could get under 8:30 if he was more aggressive and didn’t just draft for the first 7 laps.

The girls 2 mile just before looked pretty windy, I'm assuming that's my he sat for 7 laps. He looked amazingly easy and smooth the whole way. I'm not picking on Drew Hunter, but to me he always looked like he was muscling his way through a race. Kessler looks completely different when he runs.

yeah, he can probably take a run at any record he wants and have a decent shot, to be honest. i think that includes Webb's time, provided Kessler does it in a pro race akin to the Pre meet Webb ran his at (so there'd have to be some sub 3:50 runners out front pushing like El G was in that race).

I think we would’ve heard about Hobbs last fall if we had footlocker or NXC. 7 people, per athletic.net have ran under 15 at MIS (includes Ritz, Hartmann, Grant Fisher, Maverick Darling)

Agree that Hobbs’s (is that the correct grammar?) ideal distance is the mile though.

And the kid who actually won the Michigan state meet (not head to head though) is a junior! He seems more of a long distance type

smooth brain wrote:

It is incredibly obvious you have no idea what you’re talking about lmao.

It is incredibly obvious that smooth brain (not to be confused with smoother brain, another poster) has no idea what he or she is talking about Imao.

Instead, let's give credit to mikkie, whose prediction was excellent:

Obviously, he's extremely gifted. His best bet is to run like Centro did in his 8:41 in high school. Sit off the leader and neg split the last mile with a scorching final lap.

I don't know if mikkie suggested that Hobbs should sit on the leader's shoulder for much of the race, outside of Lane 1. Maybe not. With the wind being a factor, Hobbs wisely stayed in Lane 1 and let the leader cut the wind for him. That's smart running. Kudos to Hobbs on an impressive victory.

Hobbs reminds me of Centro in many ways. Great speed, smooth stride with very little arm movement, and runs to win not to chase times. The times will come, as they say.

Anyway, he looked tremendous, he seems to live for racing and his recent training with the 50. x last 400 suggests he has the wheels to one day be a contender for medals at global championships.