Can I break 2:45 in the marathon based on these workouts?

It’s ALWAYS humid in the morning. Always. Anywhere. Humidity is arbitrary. Worry about the dewpoint. Aaaaannnd if you were seriously concerned about dewpoint (humidity) you wouldn’t have signed up for a race in the south in March. So don’t even use that as a crux/excuse/reason/bail out. Get that humidity excuse out of your head. If you’ve trained in comparable conditions, you should be fine. Most people run in the morning or evening anyway when the humidity is high.

Anyway yeah you’ll probably run sun 2:45.

I don't see why not. Make sure you taper down properly the week or so before the race.

The answer is that you are in shape for 2:45 or a little faster. But the key is race execution. Don’t be preoccupied with a specific pace. Hover in the ballpark through 10-15 miles. Relax. Get to 15-17 miles feeling good. Notice I didn’t say anything about pace. Get to 15-17 miles feeling GOOD.

* stipe wrote:

The answer is that you are in shape for 2:45 or a little faster. But the key is race execution. Don’t be preoccupied with a specific pace. Hover in the ballpark through 10-15 miles. Relax. Get to 15-17 miles feeling good. Notice I didn’t say anything about pace. Get to 15-17 miles feeling GOOD.

I've heard this advice before, and have successfully applied it to my prior marathons. I will try not to get too caught up on pace (while still staying in the ballpark), with a goal of getting to 15-17 feeling good.

I’m in a similar spot. Best of luck to us both!

If you had not given me your goal time I would have guessed that you'd race faster than your goal time. Back half of a 24 miler at marathon pace is beyond what someone would normally try to achieve because you will get some boost on race day from competition. I won't say you have it in the bag but if I were you I'd have my A goal faster than that

No you cannot. You will never be able to break the WR unless you are black and wearing the correct shoes

Totally!

Now we just have to get you to believe that.

Seriously.

I think sub-2:45 but not sub-2:40 but maybe closer to 2:40 than 2:45.

A lot of those workouts are really strong. Doesn't look like you have the leg speed sub-2:40 types have (sub-16:30 versus 16:40's, 5 x 1k under 3:20 versus over) but that's not necessarily a disqualifier. I like the 4MP, 1T, 4MP, 1T. The 22 w./ 3 x 4 @ MP at 2:40 pace/slightly over mixed with you saying the MP miles are maybe, overall, a touch fast, tells me somewhere in the low-2:40s would be a good goal.

Nothing wrong with going out at 6:10-6:15 through 13.1. If you can pick it up, do so. If you can't, try to maintain. I think 2:42-43 is a good target. Definitely due for a PR. Just make sure mile 1 isn't 6-flat.