Jon Gault - "Before the season, I was even wondering if he (Nico Young) had a shot to win the whole thing as a true freshma

I would not say it was weak in 1988 but there were not any superstar Africans either. Bob Kennedy of course was a special talent. I would guess that having the NCAA Cross Country Championships in March would give freshmen a better chance to do well as a result of a longer period of adaption to training at the collegiate level.

It’s possible that what Jon Gault wrote in his article might not perfectly reflect his pre season thoughts. Dude writes about running for a living, there’s no way he thought an American true freshman was a contender for the NCAA cross championship. I’m way to young to remember Kennedy in college, but these days it’s completely outside the realm of possibility to think that a frosh from the US is gonna win nattys.

Also want to point out that wejo spelled ‘weak’ as ‘week,’ and he’s the one who hired gault so maybe they’re all morans.

Dr Yuengling wrote:

It’s possible that what Jon Gault wrote in his article might not perfectly reflect his pre season thoughts. Dude writes about running for a living, there’s no way he thought an American true freshman was a contender for the NCAA cross championship. I’m way to young to remember Kennedy in college, but these days it’s completely outside the realm of possibility to think that a frosh from the US is gonna win nattys.

Also want to point out that wejo spelled ‘weak’ as ‘week,’ and he’s the one who hired gault so maybe they’re all morans.

You wrote “way to” instead of “way too”. Where does that leave you?

wejo wrote:I still can't really comprehend how Kennedy won as a freshman. Was it a week year? I feel like NCAA Cross hasn't had the star power the last couple of years. Case in point Edwin Kurgat won in 2019 and doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.

Don't forget King Ches. Beat the defending champ (Kennedy Kithuka) by 18 seconds.

I don't think anyone since Cheserek has been a threat for the win their freshman year. Nico is probably the closest, but I never thought he had much of a chance to actually win it, either.

Let me defend myself.

This was back in September. We didn't have a spring track season for anyone to drop ridiculous times and assert themselves as a favorite. The top returner from NCAAs in 2019 was BYU's Conner Mantz in 3rd. Obviously very good, but I don't think anyone viewed him as unbeatable. Wesley Kiptoo had not emerged yet. Cooper Teare and Luis Grijalva had yet to run sub-13:20.

And I didn't say I thought Nico was going to win. But I was wondering if it was possible. To win NCAA XC as a true freshman from the US, you obviously have to be an insane talent. But Young IS an insane talent. He obliterated a loaded NXN field and ran a HS record of 7:56 indoors. And he's an endurance-based guy who is great at pushing his body to the limit for a long time -- perfectly suited to XC.

Do I think he will win now? No. Grijalva, Teare, and Kiptoo are all better than him -- and obviously he lost to Mantz on Saturday. But the fact that he was so close to Mantz -- the top returner from '19 and the preseason favorite -- shows I wasn't crazy to consider if he could win it all as a true frosh.

I thought that his high school results were mainly due to training so hard. I thought that you were crazy at the time even though all of those other things had not happened. Even after those things, I now give him a better chance than I did back in the fall. After seeing him race on Monday, his form is greatly improved. I am now thinking that he ran fast in high school just because he was fast and despite his mechanical flaws. He looks smooth and ready. I will be surprised if not top 10 and would predict him for 5th right now.

birdbeard wrote:

wejo wrote:I still can't really comprehend how Kennedy won as a freshman. Was it a week year? I feel like NCAA Cross hasn't had the star power the last couple of years. Case in point Edwin Kurgat won in 2019 and doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.

Don't forget King Ches. Beat the defending champ (Kennedy Kithuka) by 18 seconds.

I don't think anyone since Cheserek has been a threat for the win their freshman year. Nico is probably the closest, but I never thought he had much of a chance to actually win it, either.

Ches also ran what, 13:18 or 13:19 that same freshman year at the outdoor track championships 5k? He was on another level, I wouldn't bet a large chunk of money that Nico will be running sub 13:20 this year. I could see a low 13:30, but not sub 13:20.

The surface. Look at the California courses Young ran on, and compare to the course last weekend. Odds are the race in March will look a lot more like last weekend, than a soggy November in Indy or wherever.

This is Jim Kiler wrote:

The surface. Look at the California courses Young ran on, and compare to the course last weekend. Odds are the race in March will look a lot more like last weekend, than a soggy November in Indy or wherever.

He did just fine at NXN in pretty terrible conditions.

Dr Yuengling wrote:

It’s possible that what Jon Gault wrote in his article might not perfectly reflect his pre season thoughts. Dude writes about running for a living, there’s no way he thought an American true freshman was a contender for the NCAA cross championship. I’m way to young to remember Kennedy in college, but these days it’s completely outside the realm of possibility to think that a frosh from the US is gonna win nattys.

Also want to point out that wejo spelled ‘weak’ as ‘week,’ and he’s the one who hired gault so maybe they’re all morans.

Dude .. you used to when too was appropriate; check it out. Here’s a clue: it’s a message board, nothing more. Gault wrote in a hyperbolic manner, click bait. WeJo is not known for his spelling bee awards.

Nico's form already looks 10x better than it did in high school. Just much more fluid. Easy to see once he gets to the front (about 10 min into the race)

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q3XWhotsvl4

Moron#3 wrote:

I would not say it was weak in 1988 but there were not any superstar Africans either. Bob Kennedy of course was a special talent. I would guess that having the NCAA Cross Country Championships in March would give freshmen a better chance to do well as a result of a longer period of adaption to training at the collegiate level.

It was "weak" in the sense that the best 5k/10k guys were like 13:45/28:20 guys during most of that time period. Go down the list and see how many names you recognize from winning future USA events. Now HS were also slow (i.e. Kennedy was leading the nation with like a 4:08 mile) but the gap was a big smaller. Nico Young would have made a nice improvement if he runs like a 13:35 this year. But that is far behind the sub 13:20 guys we have right now.

birdbeard wrote:

wejo wrote:I still can't really comprehend how Kennedy won as a freshman. Was it a week year? I feel like NCAA Cross hasn't had the star power the last couple of years. Case in point Edwin Kurgat won in 2019 and doesn't even have a Wikipedia page.

Don't forget King Ches. Beat the defending champ (Kennedy Kithuka) by 18 seconds.

I don't think anyone since Cheserek has been a threat for the win their freshman year. Nico is probably the closest, but I never thought he had much of a chance to actually win it, either.

One other thing that makes Kennedy's performance ever more impressive is that he had only turned 18 in August so he was about 18 months younger than Ches when he won as a freshman.

I think Kennedy was underappreciated as an xc runner. He is still the only American to win NCAA and USTAF xc titles in the same year (1992). That said, in looking at the top ten finishers Kennedy's freshman year the field does seem very weak, especially compared to what Nico will face. There are a number of contenders this year and the odds of any of them winning compared with the field are low

18 months? I would say 42 months.

One of the more interesting parts of watching that race was how many guys were cutting corners inside the flags!

Ches was crazy fast wrote:

birdbeard wrote:

Don't forget King Ches. Beat the defending champ (Kennedy Kithuka) by 18 seconds.

I don't think anyone since Cheserek has been a threat for the win their freshman year. Nico is probably the closest, but I never thought he had much of a chance to actually win it, either.

Ches also ran what, 13:18 or 13:19 that same freshman year at the outdoor track championships 5k? He was on another level, I wouldn't bet a large chunk of money that Nico will be running sub 13:20 this year. I could see a low 13:30, but not sub 13:20.

I agree. Unless the shoes really are worth 5+ seconds, I don't see a sub 13:20 for Nico this year. But I do think he is talented enough to challenge that record that Derrick/Fernandez swapped back when they were freshman -- I think it's around 13:25. I see no reason Nico can't run that.

I think he was probably good for sub 13:40 in good weather last year. Ran that 13:50 in weather that certainly wasn't ideal. If he gets good conditions this year, I see 13:22-25.

However, I suppose it is entirely possible that none of the current NCAA guys will have running careers as successful as Bob Kennedy and Todd Williams, who were both in that race. However I am aware that Williams flourished much more as a post collegian than a collegian. Of course some of the guys running 13:20 now does make one think that 13:20 ain’t quite what it used to be.

What’s a freshma ?

Oh so law and order for everyone else but not the mods?