What is a typical rate of 10 km time reduction?

I don't think you need to get in your own head at this point and concern yourself with rate of improvement. Just with more miles and more consistent workouts you should continue to make some big jumps. It'll drop off once you start pushing 30:00 for 8k. Then your training will matter a lot more, as it'll be harder and harder to PR.

You're going about things the wrong way. At the moment, you're trying to run as fast as you can for 8K three times a week, with plans to increase to 10K. Stop doing that. It works for a short time, but quickly lands you at a plateau of fitness, which is probably where you are now.

To improve in running, most days should be easy, a few days should be harder, and all-out efforts are more like once a month (there's a ton of detail I'm leaving out). If you want to get faster, that means you need to run easy on most days: a bit shorter, and slow enough to be comfortable. And you'd want to work up to running 5-6 days per week, something like 5K/8K/5K/8K/5K/10K/off, all at an easy pace. Once you can do that for 3-4 weeks, try 8K as fast as you can again, and you'll find you can go much faster than you are now. Then you try running a bit farther each day, and a bit faster one day each week, and the process continues.

my 2c wrote:

You're going about things the wrong way. At the moment, you're trying to run as fast as you can for 8K three times a week, with plans to increase to 10K. Stop doing that. It works for a short time, but quickly lands you at a plateau of fitness, which is probably where you are now.

I second this.

You can't test yourself 3 times a week and expect better results. That's not how endurance training works.

Run 3-5 times a week for 45 to 75 minutes for a couple of month. And maybe join a 10k race in your area when they start happening again. With that 10k race you can start making more plans for the future.

But basically racing for yourself 3 times a week is only a path towards injury and frustrations. Don't do that.

Frank Shorter here wrote:

my 2c wrote:

You're going about things the wrong way. At the moment, you're trying to run as fast as you can for 8K three times a week, with plans to increase to 10K. Stop doing that. It works for a short time, but quickly lands you at a plateau of fitness, which is probably where you are now.

I second this.

You can't test yourself 3 times a week and expect better results. That's not how endurance training works.

Run 3-5 times a week for 45 to 75 minutes for a couple of month. And maybe join a 10k race in your area when they start happening again. With that 10k race you can start making more plans for the future.

But basically racing for yourself 3 times a week is only a path towards injury and frustrations. Don't do that.

+1

You've been running for a year. With good sensible training. Now, 34 mins for 8k. After 2 years, 30 minutes, after 7 years, 27 minutes. If you have above average talent, 25 minutes.