Ryan Hill details why he left Nike BTC for Hoka NAZ

I feel pretty good about Ryan's odds to make the 5k Olympic team this year. Even if he isn't in top 3 fastest American shape by time at the Trials, his kick should be deadly enough to medal in a championship style race.

I'd say Ryan Hill does not have a great chance, statistically, as there have not been any 30+ year old runners make the 5000m team that were not named Bernard Lagat (KEN/USA). I think he's a great runner, but I'd place him 6-8th at the Trials.

5000m Men

2016 Olympic Team

Bernard Lagat (41)

Hassan Mead (27)

Paul Chelimo (26)

2012 Olympic Team

Galen Rupp (26)

Bernard Lagat (37)

Lopez Lomong (27)

2008 Olympic Team

Bernard Lagat (33)

Matt Tegenkamp (26)

Ian Dobson (26)

Ryan Hill speaks wrote:

Sounds like it was just a Nike issue and he loved BTC. He sounds really excited for Hoka, NAZ, Ben Roasario, and Flagstaff.

Predictions on his 2021 Olympic chances?

https://youtu.be/y0u-_ImDiRo

Cool to see Ryan's comeback from his achilles, hopefully 2021 gives him more racing opportunities. Olympics would be a huge achievement. If he misses the team I'm curious if he and Rosario will change his target race distance

Ryan Hill speaks wrote:

Sounds like it was just a Nike issue and he loved BTC. He sounds really excited for Hoka, NAZ,

So basically he thought Hoka would give him the most cash. I expect that is the reason for most moves...

adsfdasfasfsafadfa wrote:

Ryan Hill speaks wrote:

Sounds like it was just a Nike issue and he loved BTC. He sounds really excited for Hoka, NAZ,

So basically he thought Hoka would give him the most cash. I expect that is the reason for most moves...

That's a little oversimplified, but yes. From the interview, it sounds like Nike was only doing single-year deals and was kind of pushing him out for a couple reasons. Hoka being a multi-year deal and likely at least as much if not more pay is certainly the primary reason. It also seems like Nike is super persuaded by recent performances as well as Ryan not being as much of a social media clout guy.

Let’s not over analyze this - Nike dropped Ryan, Ryan didn’t drop Nike

Ryan Hill speaks wrote:

That's a little oversimplified, but yes. From the interview, it sounds like Nike was only doing single-year deals and was kind of pushing him out for a couple reasons. Hoka being a multi-year deal and likely at least as much if not more pay is certainly the primary reason. It also seems like Nike is super persuaded by recent performances as well as Ryan not being as much of a social media clout guy.

Which all translates into more money:) I am sure if we learned about why most athletes sign with brand X over Brand Y, cash is like #1 and things like coaching and locations are a distant considerations that only matter when the money is close. If Nike is valuing at 50k/year for 1 year and some other company is offering 100k/year for 3 years, odds are you at taking the higher contract. Whenever we have articles asking why X doesn't have a contract, the answer is almost always they want more money than the companies want to offer.

I am not sure how Jerry escapes the fact that he certainly has a huge say in who is retained by Nike for BTC. Jerry thinks Ryan’s best running is behind him. Believes more in the other 5k runners in BTC that are significantly younger or more consistently healthy and good.

Sad but true. Hoping Ryan proves him/Nike wrong.

Only thing I’m really learning from this is there is another running podcast leading me to believe the running podcast market is way over saturated and that’s why I don’t listen to any

Bro there is an over saturation of podcast for everything. Just like YouTube channels.

The trick is to find one or two you like. It's not that hard.

Odds are good wrote:

I feel pretty good about Ryan's odds to make the 5k Olympic team this year. Even if he isn't in top 3 fastest American shape by time at the Trials, his kick should be deadly enough to medal in a championship style race.

I wouldn't say they are good odds, but I would say there is a real chance that he could qualify. His fastest time in the past three years is a 13:15, and that was in one of the perfect scenario Bowerman time trials where everyone seemed to run unbelievable times. There are several people who have run faster than that in the same time frame, some of them a lot faster. So those people are the more likely people to get the three spots. Ryan would have an outside chance. And switching to a new coach 6 months before the big day, that can be tough to see positive results that fast. He would be doing well to run 13:12 this year and finish 5th at the trials.

Ryan is the equivalent of a free agent right handed pitcher with eight years of experience that can give you a few good innings of middle relief most nights. His ERA is 3.8 and he has only a middling slider and curveball. His fastball has lost 3-5 mph over the past three seasons and that right arm is getting a bit tired. Now, the Yankees are willing to keep him on the roster and have tendered a one year, $1.5 million contract laden with some performance incentives. The Seattle Mariners called and are offering a three year deal worth $2.5 million per season straight salary.

Which deal are you going to take? Unless you think that a championship ring (Oly medal for runners) is a foregone conclusion, the choice is obvious.

Solid analogy. Thing is, it's not hard to imagine BTC being shut-out of medals in Tokyo. Not saying none of them have a chance, just that it could be a coin flip for the best of them to get on the podium given several factors, most glaring being shutdowns negatively affecting OOC testing. Which is better than you can say for any other grouping of US distance runners outside of maybe ADP or Not Oregon Project.

Anyway, with Hill sent packing and now Bumby calling it quits along with the Craggs heading for the hills, it does look strongly like Jerry and Craig are using the opportunity of the 2020 expiration on contracts to take care of some housekeeping, tidy up their roster and hopefully motivate those who remain. I'm sure they would've loved to bring in someone like Jones or Kelati and just weren't nimble enough to act sitting under all those soon-to-expire contracts and want to be ready for the next round of collegians who see further cancellation of season(s) and opt to go pro sooner than later or current pros looking to hop to a different group.

This is horrific news. Hopefully he will be able to get a PR soon.

Are you using this same rationale when it comes to Chelimo?

Standard Setter wrote:

I'd say Ryan Hill does not have a great chance, statistically, as there have not been any 30+ year old runners make the 5000m team that were not named Bernard Lagat (KEN/USA). I think he's a great runner, but I'd place him 6-8th at the Trials.

5000m Men

2016 Olympic Team

Bernard Lagat (41)

Hassan Mead (27)

Paul Chelimo (26)

2012 Olympic Team

Galen Rupp (26)

Bernard Lagat (37)

Lopez Lomong (27)

2008 Olympic Team

Bernard Lagat (33)

Matt Tegenkamp (26)

Ian Dobson (26)

Semantics. 6-8th range shows that he does have a shot to make the team. He's going to make the final and be there with a couple laps to go. I know you found an argument that works for you but Hill was on the podium at USAs (outdoors) in 2013, 2015, 2017, and 2018. The dude won an indoor medal at the world champs in 2016.

He seems to be healthy from some of the BTC time trials last summer. Kind of strange to see Nike not renew him even if just for a year. I like NAZ. Maybe the strength stuff will help Hill. Would be cool to see a distance squad put a runner on the 5k team.

Would be curious to know how those decisions get made. Seems like Nike told BTC they needed to cut even though the athletes and coaches were ready to keep going. Business is business but Hill should have some more good years ahead of him.

Alexi Santana wrote:

Let’s not over analyze this - Nike dropped Ryan, Ryan didn’t drop Nike

This HAS to be true. Not sure if the guy's ever run in non-Nike shoe. Was the move out of desperation? Perhaps. Actually, probably. But that doesn't mean it was the wrong move. Was it the right one? Hopefully so. I like NAZ and would like to see progress there.

Nike was allowed to match the offer from Hoka. They did not.