Teen Runner wrote:
I was wondering about my chances of breaking 1:30 for the half marathon in 6 months and breaking 3:00 in the marathon in 10 months . I am currently training 25-30 mpw, and my PR for the mile is 5:36 (Dec 2020), 5K: 19:53 (Aug 2020), and 10k is 47:07 (Nov 2020). And also, I need the advice to pace to break 19 in the 5k, since I'm racing on in 4 weeks.
I think a lot of the other replies here assume that OP is a somewhat experienced runner, but I'll guess the opposite. I will guess that OP is quite new to running, doesn't do workouts, and doesn't do long runs. I'll assume that the 10k time isn't a real effort, but rather the time it took OP to jog 6 miles one time.
In this case, can OP break a 3-hour marathon in 10 months: highly doubtful but maybe possible due to youth and inexperience. If there is talent there and OP is highly untrained (which it sounds like is true) then it's possible.
OP, if you're going to run a 3-hour marathon, then you would be able to run a medium to medium-hard effort 6 mile tempo in 39 minutes or less and a hard 10k effort around 38:Low. I think that you will need to be able to achieve this about five months before your marathon so that you can give yourself about a month of easier running but decent base weekly mileage (~50 mpw) before you start a 16-18 week marathon build (55-70 mpw) while you have the fitness to reach your goal. This is a recipe for injury, but I also like to see people try to reach their goals.
The question becomes: Can you get from a 5:36 mile (or 1600 m) now to a 38:Low 10k in 5 months?
1. Start running a tempo (2-3 miles) on Tuesdays and Fridays. (Also warm-up and cool-down, duh)
2. Start running a long runs (at least 60 minutes) on Sundays.
3. Work weekly mileage up to >40 mpw over the next 2 months.
4. Increase the tempo length to 3-6 miles.
5. Increase the long run to over 10 miles.
6. Do a 10k time trials in 5 months. If you are under 39 minutes, then you have a chance at the 3-hour marathon.
[You can find smarter training plans, but I'm guessing that this is better than what you've been doing.]
I predict that if you built up for a marathon from now, you would run 3:35 - 3:25.
Realistically, if you start running smarter, build mileage, and don't get injured over the next 5 months and then built up for the marathon, you would be able to run 3:20 - 3:10.
If things go very well and you are amazingly able to hit a 39:00 10k in 5 months and then you build for the marathon, then you could run 3:10 - 3:00 with a very slim chance at breaking 3:00.
Good luck.