What are Robert Brandt's Chances of Making the Olympics?

Who?

1% max. He got 8th place in this track meet lol

https://finishedresults.trackscoreboard.com/meets/9616/events/10/Final

How do you calculate 50%. That woukd normally mean that he is about 3rd or 4th best right now. I put his chances at 10%.

Stop spamming your own show

Hey Dom,

Who??

You talking about for Paris??

drives me crazy wrote:

1% max. He got 8th place in this track meet lol

https://finishedresults.trackscoreboard.com/meets/9616/events/10/Final

In fairness [below] puts only 2x US born/naturalised athletes ahead of him for the 10K. I get your point but this was a very high calibre track meet still and you should only be comparing him against other US athletes per this discussion

1. Eric Jenkins - probably do the 5K and/or 1500

2. Patrick Tiernan - Aussie

3. Edward Cheserek - famously not got US citizenship yet

4. Sam Atkin - British

5. Joe Klecker

6. Wesley Kiptoo - Kenyan, does he have US citizenship?

7. Hilary Bor

8. Robert Brandt

But there are guys like Lomong and Day and Hehir. I woukd be interested in seeing the OP's odds on every top 10k runner.

LondonLocal wrote:

drives me crazy wrote:

1% max. He got 8th place in this track meet lol

https://finishedresults.trackscoreboard.com/meets/9616/events/10/Final

In fairness [below] puts only 2x US-born/naturalized athletes ahead of him for the 10K. I get your point but this was a very high caliber track meet still and you should only be comparing him against other US athletes per this discussion

1. Eric Jenkins - probably do the 5K and/or 1500

2. Patrick Tiernan - Aussie

3. Edward Cheserek - famously not got US citizenship yet

4. Sam Atkin - British

5. Joe Klecker

6. Wesley Kiptoo - Kenyan, does he have US citizenship?

7. Hilary Bor

8. Robert Brandt

Good Point

I think he has a chance to make the team, but I don't think it's a high chance. Probably less than 10%. But that's still better than most.

If Robert Brandt makes the team, that will be sad for the depth of the USA's distance program. This seems to be the USA's 'least deep' event when you compare it to the 800 guys, the 1500 guys, the 5000 guys, and even the marathoners.

Don't get me wrong, Brandt is a talented runner, but he's going to get lapped by Cheptegei, Chiplimo, Kandie, Kipruto, Kejelcha, and maybe even Mo Ahmed in an Olympic final. Those guys are going to build off their fantastic 2020 fitness to rip something around 26:30 or lower. Brandt just isn't at that level.

higher % chance than anyone in tinman. Brandt's 10k scores higher on IAAF tables than Drew Huunter's 5k PB

I give Hunter a better chance of making the team. Using IAAF scoring tables doesn't make sense. You could score higher on the IAAF tables in the 400 than any American in the 10k and not make the team because you are only the 5th best American even though you are the 7th best 400 meter runner in the world.

Ugandan Coffee Grower wrote:

I think he has a chance to make the team, but I don't think it's a high chance. Probably less than 10%. But that's still better than most.

If Robert Brandt makes the team, that will be sad for the depth of the USA's distance program. This seems to be the USA's 'least deep' event when you compare it to the 800 guys, the 1500 guys, the 5000 guys, and even the marathoners.

.

The 10k is hard it isn't run a lot. On paper there are 3 or 4 guys who should be down sub 27:20 and another 3-4 in that sub 27:50 level. One or two people only doing the 5000m or being injuried would place him right in that group fighting for the last spot.

Of course you still need like a 27:30 to make the olympics. I am sure Brandt's thinks he can run faster but until you do, who knows. I know if I was a mid 20s, 27:39 guy I would be dreaming and planning about everything I can do to run those couple seconds faster and have a chance...

He's not an old runner. At the rate he's currently improving, it isn't impossible.

Realistically, 2021 is going to be tough. But is it impossible for him to shave off 1s/mile/year? At that rate of improvement, he could be in 27.low shape in a couple of years. Maybe 2024?

albaneses wrote:

higher % chance than anyone in tinman. Brandt's 10k scores higher on IAAF tables than Drew Huunter's 5k PB

Interesting you would point this out, because at the track meet where they set those PRs fresh Drew Hunter beat fresh Sam Atkin in the 5k, and the next day Sam Atkin(on tired legs) absolutely demolished fresh Robert Brandt in the 10k.

For the simple minded ones here-

Fresh Drew Hunter>Fresh Sam Atkin

Tired Sam Atkin>Fresh Robert Brandt

Fill in the third line yourself!

18.5%

Seppo Kaitenenn wrote:

He's not an old runner. At the rate he's currently improving, it isn't impossible.

Realistically, 2021 is going to be tough. But is it impossible for him to shave off 1s/mile/year? At that rate of improvement, he could be in 27.low shape in a couple of years. Maybe 2024?

He isn't old but he also isn't young. 24-28 is pretty much prime distance running age. Obviously nobody can predict the future and as I said everyone thinks they can run faster. Some do. A lot don't. I wish him the best as the US needs all the solid distance guys we can find. Nothing is worse than national championship race where only 3 guys have the standard....

College guy tells all wrote:

How do you calculate 50%. That woukd normally mean that he is about 3rd or 4th best right now. I put his chances at 10%.

I agree with this but he's not in the top-3 or 4 now plus there will be a ton of experienced guys coming back to the track from there marathon. Faubs was 4th in 2016 and hasn't been mentioned with some of those guys.

In no particular order (well maybe some of the top guys first): Rupp, Lomong, Chelimo, Korir, True, Jenkins, Kipchirchir, Bor, Fauble, Lara, Droddy, Blankenship, Day, Hehir, Bennie, Derrick, Erassa, Estrada, Lalang, Mead, etc.

This is, by no means, an exhaustive list. Also some folks won't be in the race but I quickly put some of the bigger names together. I do agree that he's a darkhorse but 50% seems high when you could argue a lot of these guys ahead of him and not many guys on this list he's head and shoulders above. It's fun to run fast in December. There's a lot of experience on this list.

adsfdasfasfsafadfa wrote:

Seppo Kaitenenn wrote:

He's not an old runner. At the rate he's currently improving, it isn't impossible.

Realistically, 2021 is going to be tough. But is it impossible for him to shave off 1s/mile/year? At that rate of improvement, he could be in 27.low shape in a couple of years. Maybe 2024?

He isn't old but he also isn't young. 24-28 is pretty much prime distance running age. Obviously nobody can predict the future and as I said everyone thinks they can run faster. Some do. A lot don't. I wish him the best as the US needs all the solid distance guys we can find. Nothing is worse than national championship race where only 3 guys have the standard....

Is he 24 already?

I'm with you there, we need as many 10k guys with the standard as possible.

Coach watching wrote:

I give Hunter a better chance of making the team. Using IAAF scoring tables doesn't make sense. You could score higher on the IAAF tables in the 400 than any American in the 10k and not make the team because you are only the 5th best American even though you are the 7th best 400 meter runner in the world.

There are already at least 12 USA runners who ran faster than Drew in the 5k in the past couple years and hit the olympic standard (not sure how many of them were in the qualifying window). Not to mention the 2 that beat Drew in that 5k. USA is deeper in the 5k than the 10k.