What is Paula Radcliffe hoping to see from Jordan Hasay on Sunday at the Valencia Marathon?

I'm sure we'll talk a lot about Hasay on this week'd podcast but what do you guys and gals think a good over/under would be?

I was kind of thinking 2:25 initially.

Is that CRAZY? I mean I know it's a time that only 8 US women have ever broken but for me anything above that doesn't move the needle for me at all. Think about it. She's a 2:20 -we pretty much a 2:21 marathoner (2:20:57 pb). So shouldn't she be able to run within 10 seconds of a mile of that even if she's not in peak shape? 10 second a mile is 4:20 in a marathon. Let's round up and say 4:30 so 2:25:30.

Think about it, it's like a 13:00 guy running 13:30. That really shouldn't be that hard for them to do with just a little bit of training. And 2:25:30 for the full marathon is pretty much equivalent to what she was supposedly shooting for in the half marathon a few weeks ago. Sarah Lorge Butler said the rabbits were taking Hasay out at 69 flat pace. Well according to MciMillan, a 69 flat is 2:25:13 (JK has it much slower at 2:27:24 but that's for the average runner and Hasay clearly tilts towards the marathon).

Now, I guess I don't really need to see a 2:25:30 But I'd like to se 2:25 equivalent performance factoring in for the windy conditions. Or at least that pace for like 20 miles and if she blows up, I don't care what the time is.

Maybe that's too ambitious. But anything over 2:28 to me is just a disaster. Let's add 15 seeconds a mile to her PB. That's like 6:33 in a marathon. So you are looking at 2:27:30.

My rating system for now.

Anything over 2:30 - F
2:28-2:30 D
2:28-2:25:30 C
2:25:30-2:23:00 B
Sub-2:23:00 - A

Now what do I expect after reading Paula's quotes? I'm not expecting a high grade.

And if you actually look at my rating, it's pretty nice right? If you come within 4 minutes of your PB , you get a B?

Paula has done a good job setting the bar very low. It sounds like an A/B grade on your scale are out of the question.

After talking to Paula, my expectations for Hasay aren't super high. I think anything 2:27 or faster would be fine. Just get a race in again and stay healthy, those are the two big things.

The challenge will be getting Hasay to buy into that mentality -- that for this race, at least, the time/place isn't the only thing that matters. If you're an elite athlete like Hasay, who has run 2:20 and finished 3rd in three majors, it may be hard not to set high goals for yourself.

I think she needs to look at the race a bit like Jared Ward did ahead of London this year. He only got into the race with about two months to go and knew he was working with an abbreviated buildup and might not be at his best. He viewed it as a "free hit" -- if he did well, great, and if not, well any race is better than no race. That seems to be the idea Paula is preaching to Hasay for this one.

Of course, moving ahead to 2021 and beyond, Hasay's expectations and goals need to be set higher. But after the injury and tumult of the last three years, if she can stay healthy enough to make it through a full buildup and marathon in Valencia, that should be considered a win.

The way the marathon is and especially with Jordan I'm thinking most likely this doesn't end well.

It's hard for someone like Jordan to get a "B" in the marathon.

Most likely I think she drops out.

However if she were to play it safe and just finish under 2:27 that would be a step in the right direction. A DNF doesn't do anything for her.

Paula has to realize Jordan completely bombing can't be good for her career so I'm hoping Jordan is in much better shape than it looks from her last half. Jordan does not need to run this race so I'm hoping that means she is more ready than it looks from the outside.

I don't think she will drop out — she didn't drop out from the OT race and that was a good mental strength builder for her; unless she is injured, but it doesn't sound like.

As you guys pointed discussing it, she may end up running on her own in the wind if she chases this or that time, even unconsciously. However, maybe she will realize it's too windy to fight on her own the first half and will stick with a slower group to find a good rhythm and enjoy the first 90min. Negative splitting should give her good morale for future races.

But then part of me thinking, maybe she will (positively) surprise us again? I cheer for that.

It does not sound like her build up has been very smooth, a few bumps in the road for sure. However if her injuries are 100% healed, the back, hamstring and heel then maybe she can run in the 2:25-2:30 range. That half marathon she recently ran will not give her much encouragement as she will have to string two of those together at over 10 seconds per mile faster just to get a 2:25 result.
I wish her the best and I hope she runs ~2:23-2:24.....we shall see.

I was in Atlanta and watched her warmup with the others. She took way more time warming up and obviously wasn't comfortable before the race. It looked like her back wasn't right. Her staying in and finishing was an acommplishment given her aspirations leading into the Olympic year. Hopefully, she can run 2:25 without any mechanical issues. She has proven she can run fast and I just hope she can get healthy. The speed should return.

Given Hasay's performances/fragility in the last year(s).....Am I the only one that thinks running a marathon is not a great idea??

I'm sure there is some significant money involved, but for someone as fragile as Hasay shouldn't she be focusing on 1/2 Marathon's and below? Get her speed/strength back up to snuff and then carefully pick a Marathon.. Just my 2 cents ...

interesting malabsorption was mentioned as the culprit of stomach issues leading into her last race. that's a pretty serious condition for an elite athlete to have. not much time to bounce back from that (wasn't her race in november?). i'm with you guys. even if she's mechanically healthy, her body and mind will be working against her here. i hope i'm wrong and they've figured it out, though!

Is there a way to watch this online?

I expect her to get a "gentleman's C" on the rojo grading scale. 2:27 or bust!

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brighteyes wrote:
I was in Atlanta and watched her warmup with the others. She took way more time warming up and obviously wasn't comfortable before the race. It looked like her back wasn't right. Her staying in and finishing was an acommplishment given her aspirations leading into the Olympic year. Hopefully, she can run 2:25 without any mechanical issues. She has proven she can run fast and I just hope she can get healthy. The speed should return.

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broken arrow wrote:

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brighteyes wrote:
I was in Atlanta and watched her warmup with the others. She took way more time warming up and obviously wasn't comfortable before the race. It looked like her back wasn't right. Her staying in and finishing was an acommplishment given her aspirations leading into the Olympic year. Hopefully, she can run 2:25 without any mechanical issues. She has proven she can run fast and I just hope she can get healthy. The speed should return.

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I agree, however she has to get that sub 31:00 10K speed back for sure. She is more a strength runner and will be able to run in the 2:20 flat range again as her speed differential between 10k and 42k is tighter than most runners.
I hope she has a positive result tomorrow.

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Fire Paula.,