COVID about to get ugly

ActualFactual wrote:

Dwightarm wrote:

[quote]DanM wrote:

The original pre-COVID projection was for over 2.5 Million Americans to die from Jan. 1, 2020 to today (316 days).

How many have actually died ?

The original projection was for a society that existed pre-COVID, with no changes.

...

The original projections were also based on mortality rates that turned out to be significantly overstated

Who predicted 2million deaths? (don't Abbott/Costello me please!) Fauci predicted 100,000 - 200,000 deaths back in April because it *seemed* things were under control. The white house inflated the upper limit to 240,000 to cover their a**.

I'd say Fauci's original estimate was pretty good assuming reasonable social distancing/masking testing, contact tracing etc, which didn't really happen in earnest.

Flymash wrote:

Tribe wrote:

Yep - absolutely correct

Sounds like the two of you have an internal conflict there - you want socialized medicine, but don't agree with my premise. But if my premise is wrong (i.e., the medical profession is relatively competent and functional as it is), then the argument for socialized healthcare becomes very weak.

In a way. But your premise is in the context of the US Health Care system. There might be good reasons that they would not be as bad within another system, i.e. a system that is not purely moneydriven. Example; the German mix of public-ideal-private. The medical profession in US are making good money. US outspends all other nations by a big margin in both health care speding per capita and as a precentage of GDP. Something is obviously wrong.

Over 250,000 dead according to worldometer. Deaths are rising by about 10,000 per week now, which will grow as all these new cases, 183k yesterday, and record hospitalizations, 65k, result in 2-3k deaths per day in a few weeks. So, by the end of one year from the beginning, which the CDC places at late January, we'll be past 1/2 of annual cancer deaths. Now, I know that some of you say that this total is nonsense because only 6% of Coronavirus deaths only include Coronavirus, no comorbidities. But what % of cancer deaths had no comorbidities? A very small percentage. What % of heart attack deaths had no comorbidities? Very little. Diseases prey on those who are older and weaker. But these are not just people dying a few days or weeks early due to the disease. Total excess deaths were 299,000 greater from late January to the end of September, at a time that COVID-attributed deaths were 200,000. And, no, the effects of lockdowns and so forth weren't accounting for a lot of deaths. Accidental deaths were down and suicides weren't up.

Example; the German mix of public-ideal-private. .

Income tax in Germany is progressive. Rates start at 14% and incrementally rise to 42%. The top 42% rate applies to income above €55,961. Very high-income levels above €265,327 are taxed at 45%.

This dosent sound ideal to me........

I remember the good old days of 2009. Sarah Palin falsley (imagine that) described the ACA as Death Panels for the elderly. The Republicans beat that to death (pun intended).

Now the GOP is ready to chuck granny and gramps to the grave because Karen and Chad can't wear a mask.

You'll never reason with these toolbags

hammy hamstrings wrote:

I remember the good old days of 2009. Sarah Palin falsley (imagine that) described the ACA as Death Panels for the elderly. The Republicans beat that to death (pun intended).

Now the GOP is ready to chuck granny and gramps to the grave because Karen and Chad can't wear a mask.

You'll never reason with these toolbags

Go smell Don Lemon’s fingers until you calm down. Try to remember that you’ve been preaching that climate change is going to kill us all soon, so why is a little pandemic scaring you so?

Fred G Sanford wrote:

Example; the German mix of public-ideal-private. .

Income tax in Germany is progressive. Rates start at 14% and incrementally rise to 42%. The top 42% rate applies to income above €55,961. Very high-income levels above €265,327 are taxed at 45%.

This dosent sound ideal to me........

Not to me either. But, there is a but. Actually, I think it is a bit higher. But US use over 5 precent more of GDP on health care. As of Norway where the public sector health care is more dominante, the personal income taxes are substansially lower than in Germany. For medical spendingnyou have to pay about 250 USD and then for the rest of the year it is free. That's nice if you have diabetes, if you suddenly should get sick. And ordinary child birth in US costs 30000 USD, average in Europe is 4000 USD. Well, there is a catch in a public health care system. You have to wait for much longer time. The queues are long. So then rich people can go private.

appleswan wrote:

Flymash wrote:

Oh, yeah, of course, that goes without saying - every is doing the best they can - cops, dentists, DEA agents, car salesmen, market analysts, funeral directors, security guards, real estate agents, Pharma CEOs, lawyers, politicians, TV news anchors, mechanics, telemarketers, Wal-mart, porn stars - they're just all victims of a corrupt and inefficient private sector system incapable of making strategic decisions.

Well... yes.

The myth of private sector efficiency is blown apart by your analysis. As I said, whether you realize or not, you're making the case for us.

Not sure "myth" is the right word. Or "blown apart." I suppose it could help your case (which appears to be heavy socialism over even regulated capitalism), and I'm fine if it does. I'm not a zealot for all-out capitalism.

But my point was much simpler. We have this "rogue" industry out there that for decades now has been gouging all it's customers with inefficient, rude and often incompetent service - and yes, that is the behavior of the people working in it (I understand you disagree). What other profession/industry/market space behaves like they do? Even car salesmen have cleaned up their act. I don't think you can entirely blame capitalism for the operations of the medical profession. I think it's a combination of (1) abuse of their monopoly power - lack of competition - where else you going to go?, (2) the medical profession is loved by the media (compare media treatment of "hero" doctors to the police, for example), and (3) penchant for hiring uptight, self-important people (Nurse Ratched is really not that far off).

Anyway, if these hospitals are to be believed and are stressed to maximum on resources right now, after all this lead time for something they KNEW was coming, I don't see how you can blame anyone but them after all this time. Again, what were we "flattening the curve" for if not to prevent exactly what they are complaining about now? Were the significant restrictions of March and April just a massive, anxiety-causing waste of our time, energy, and resources?

STFU

[quote]Fauci said 200k, not 2 mil wrote:

[quote]ActualFactual wrote:

Fauci predicted 100,000 - 200,000 deaths back in April because it *seemed* things were under control. The white house inflated the upper limit to 240,000 to cover their a**.

I'd say Fauci's original estimate was pretty good assuming reasonable social distancing/masking testing, contact tracing etc, which didn't really happen in earnest.

Prior to April Fauci was saying masks not needed.

On April 3 he reversed himself.

On March 29, Fauci said 100k to 200k Americans -- prior to his reversal on not needing masks.

On April 9, Fauci Says U.S. Coronavirus Deaths May Be 'More Like 60,000'

But he also says that the American public's embrace of physical separation and other restrictions is sharply reducing projections of the death toll from the respiratory virus.

The final toll currently "looks more like 60,000 than the 100,000 to 200,000" that U.S. officials previously estimated, Fauci said.

So Fauci was way the heck off no matter how you look at it.

I am also curious for documentation as to why you claim mask wearing and social distancing never really happened in earnest.

Flymash wrote:

The medical profession has had 7-8 months now to ramp up whatever capacity -- supplies, drugs, staff, space -- they think they need for whatever "wave" or "surge" we may see, and stick the taxpayer with any losses they may incur. If they haven't already prepared for this, my already extremely low opinion of the medical profession will be even lower, which I didn't think was possible. What was the point of "flattening the curve" and all we went through earlier in the year, if not to adequately prepare for this?

At this stage of the pandemic, not one person should die because of some alleged capacity or treatment issue with these idiotic hospitals and the alleged "heroes" who work in them.

When you say that the medical profession should have prepared for this, who are you talking about? My wife owns a small medical practice and had to rent more space so that they could segregate patients that showed signs of COVID from those that don't. There was no additional compensation from insurance companies or MEDICAID and patients weren't in a position to pay more out of pocket, so this practice did this to protect the public. Her practice is unsure if they will be able to stay in business until the end of the year. In the meantime, they have struggled to get PPE, get their patients a COVID test and compensation from insurance companies for services rendered in non-traditional ways (i.e. remotely). Nurses and staff have quit at an alarming rate due to work stress and needs to be at home with families during this time.

Hospitals didn't and still don't have enough ICU suites and ventilators to handle a major surge like the one that we are starting. One of the hospitals near me is going out of business as I write this. Were they supposed to build new ICU suites and buy millions of dollars of equipment to prepare? Are these practices supposed to staff up with extra nurses when they can't even keep their staff stable?

There were many opportunities for the government to prepare, organize and provide funds to help our medical institutions to prepare. Total failure. Medical professionals and institutions have made every sacrifice possible.

You have absolutely no idea what is going on at hospitals and medical practices today, but you are freely criticizing them across the board and pointing your finger at them. Pathetic.

I am sure that you have done a lot to help and prepare your community during this pandemic. When someone in my family gets sick, we will come to you for help.

Agree, sorry to hear about your wife's medical practice. But we had the Federal Response of a middle school administration ! History will be very harsh on the Trump administration's lack of leadership.

Your wife’s tiny practice isn’t a hospital with ICU. Why were hospitals reporting revenues losses and laying off personnel when ERs were empty over the summer?

99% of COVID positives recover and most don’t even have any symptoms. How many of us not subject to frequent testing have had it and didn’t/don’t know and are fine?

Cancer on the other hand is way more deadly all around to anyone. Heart attacks? They are the kind of the result of comorbidities like obesity or afib.

Runner10287 wrote:

Your wife’s tiny practice isn’t a hospital with ICU. Why were hospitals reporting revenues losses and laying off personnel when ERs were empty over the summer?

Bro, you REALLY want this to be a big conspiracy. Keep trying, people have been at this for months on this board.

You will lose, disappear, and some other moron will pop up in your place. We are used to it by now.

Harambe wrote:

Runner10287 wrote:

Your wife’s tiny practice isn’t a hospital with ICU. Why were hospitals reporting revenues losses and laying off personnel when ERs were empty over the summer?

Bro, you REALLY want this to be a big conspiracy. Keep trying, people have been at this for months on this board.

You will lose, disappear, and some other moron will pop up in your place. We are used to it by now.

How about you address the facts he presented?

cognitive dissonance much wrote:

In contrast, I have family in the Chicago area, where they have been shut down with heavy restrictions for months and months, and now cases are surging and they have 1-2 hour waits to get a freaking test, and the place runs out of tests every day. Did you not have 7 months to procure adequate testing supplies?!?!? It sounds like a mess there, in a state that has had sweeping restrictions all along and “took the virus very seriously” vs. where I am in TX. It honestly feels like we are living in 2 different worlds.

Chicago has several city-run testing sites with plenty of tests, in addition to the testing done by healthcare providers. You register ahead of time for a 30 minute window, and I've never had to wait longer than that. Maybe I'm just lucky, though.

123 5 wrote:

Harambe wrote:

Bro, you REALLY want this to be a big conspiracy. Keep trying, people have been at this for months on this board.

You will lose, disappear, and some other moron will pop up in your place. We are used to it by now.

How about you address the facts he presented?

Been there done that, I have seen this so many times. He will hammer a few points for a few weeks. We will destroy him with facts and logic. He will crawl back into his hole licking his wounds.

It used to be fun, but now it's a little depressing arguing with 95 IQ dudes who don't understand what an exponential is.

My offer for a FREE algebra I textbook to any poster still stands :)

Harambe wrote:

123 5 wrote:

How about you address the facts he presented?

Been there done that, I have seen this so many times. He will hammer a few points for a few weeks. We will destroy him with facts and logic. He will crawl back into his hole licking his wounds.

It used to be fun, but now it's a little depressing arguing with 95 IQ dudes who don't understand what an exponential is.

My offer for a FREE algebra I textbook to any poster still stands :)

Exactly. You can't.

You destroy no one. You are losing ground to people with a brain.