Is Bekele the 2nd most likely to win In London if it is not Kipchoge?

RealTalker wrote:

Bekele is the only one capable of beating Kipchoge, but many of the others are capable of beating Bekele. You can't rely on Bekele in the marathon.

This may be right although I would think the dude that ran 2:02:55 has some shot at beating Kipchoge -- Kipchoge's getting older. He has to lose a step eventually. We'll see if it's this year, or 2021, or 2022.

If Kipchoge gets out in 60:30 I can't see Bekele going with. I imagine one of the 2:02 guys gives more of a challenge to the crown, as they've already hung with Kipchoge for a big chunk of the last London and even pushed the pace at times.

To answer the question I say yes, but Bekele is not the most likely to finish second. I'd tap Geremew for that. DNF or a 5th place finish or worse very much on the table for KB. Given the lap format, if you're going to finish some 4-5+ minutes behind Kipchoge and potentially get lapped I could see dropping out being very tempting on an off day.

RealTalker wrote:

Bekele is the only one capable of beating Kipchoge, but many of the others are capable of beating Bekele. You can't rely on Bekele in the marathon.

This is exactly how I see it. Gault wasn't wrong in his preview (where's the women's btw & why does the men's always get released first?) when he said that Bekele is pretty much boom or bust as far as the marathon goes. Bekele has put together a few good performances, a couple exceptional performances, and has piled up a ton of DNFs, in his marathon career.

He is the one guy I see that can challenge Kipchoge. His 2:01 in Berlin probably came in tougher conditions than when Kipchoge set the WR. I hope they're both fit and ready to go.

I see Bekele as 1st or 2nd or as a DNF. I still can't get over (I think it was Amsterdam) when he dropped out super close to the finish line and still would have crossed the line well under 2:10. But he doesn't care about a 2:08. He wants to win. Should be a fun race.

birdbeard wrote:

RealTalker wrote:

Bekele is the only one capable of beating Kipchoge, but many of the others are capable of beating Bekele. You can't rely on Bekele in the marathon.

This may be right although I would think the dude that ran 2:02:55 has some shot at beating Kipchoge -- Kipchoge's getting older. He has to lose a step eventually. We'll see if it's this year, or 2021, or 2022.

Gebremew is that runner, and I believe he will be the main challenger for second place behind EK.

RealTalker wrote:

Bekele is the only one capable of beating Kipchoge, but many of the others are capable of beating Bekele. You can't rely on Bekele in the marathon.

I was going to write something along the same lines.

Who knows? Bekele could just as well beat Kipchoge on Sunday. He is VERY capable.

The problem is that you cannot rely on this guy in hte marathon. I wouldn't bet two shillings on him winning a marathon. That is the equivalent of $0.2.