Workout 1
3 x 3k over hills
10.59, 10.57, 9.45
Workout 2
8x 400m (90s jog recovery) + 4 x 200m (90s jog recovery)
67, 74, 70, 66, 68, 66, 68, 66, 68, 65, 32, 32, 30, 29
Workout 3
3 x mile (90 seconds jog between efforts)
5.08, 5.13, 5.23
Workout 1
3 x 3k over hills
10.59, 10.57, 9.45
Workout 2
8x 400m (90s jog recovery) + 4 x 200m (90s jog recovery)
67, 74, 70, 66, 68, 66, 68, 66, 68, 65, 32, 32, 30, 29
Workout 3
3 x mile (90 seconds jog between efforts)
5.08, 5.13, 5.23
16:15
Doubtful, based on workout 3. Workout 2 doesn't necessarily translate to a fast 5k time either.
Don't like the positive split on workout #3, especially considering the 1st rep was about 16:00 5k pace. 16:15 to 16:30 is my guess.
I would say 15:45 if these weren’t killer. I don’t think I could have done these right at 16 shape. If these workouts aren’t close to indicative, y’all should really try slowing it down a bit and saving something for the race
Thanks man! They weren't killer killer. My guy has run 16.15 before.
Fair enough. Thx.
Chris R wrote:[/
Workout 3
3 x mile (90 seconds jog between efforts)
5.08, 5.13, 5.23
Workout 3 is probably your best indicator of sub-16. If all three miles were under 5:10 its a guarantee that a sub-16 should be no problem!
How much rest on workout 1 and what’s up with the last split vs. the first two?
Based on workout 3 I would say no as others have said. My guess is closer to 16:20.
I'm gonna say no. Here's why:
Last year I ran a (slightly hilly) 16:27. I estimate I could've run 16:00-16:10 on a track at the time. (I'm now a 15:40 guy) At the time I did a workout of 16*400 off 1 minute and averaged around 68 per rep. This guy had a longer recovery with half the reps and averaged only 67. I think this shows he's at best in similar shape to what I was, and at worst a little slower. I'd estimate him in the low 16s personally.
Only on a short course. We have plenty of guys who run 3x1600 at 5 minutes on 90 seconds rest. The race 16:15 on legit XC courses.
I agree with most other people. Overall looks good, but the 3 x mile workout is a little bit worrying.
I would say definitely.
16:40 take it or leave it
400s to slow
coleiolio wrote:
I agree with most other people. Overall looks good, but the 3 x mile workout is a little bit worrying.
That's because it's closest to the actual predictor which is 4x. Slowing times indicate outside 16.
I am confused. Are you disagreeing with me?
I don't get the responses here. I can't do any of these workouts and I run sub 16:20. If I posted my workouts y'all would be like 'you can run 18 min at best'. Like do y'all realize he's running a third 3k, over hills, at 16:15 pace as a workout? He should definitely be able to run sub 16. Are you all running workouts like race efforts or something?
I think he's got a chance. I chased sub 16 for a couple of years and finally did 15:55. I was 42 and had 5 years of running. Was averaging 75 miles per week. Key speed workout was 12x400 in 69, and they were all-out.
TheXCrunner wrote:
Chris R wrote:[/
Workout 3
3 x mile (90 seconds jog between efforts)
5.08, 5.13, 5.23
Workout 3 is probably your best indicator of sub-16. If all three miles were under 5:10 its a guarantee that a sub-16 should be no problem!
I did 5:16, 5:04, 4:55, completely dying and only managed 16:15 in a 5k (also dying), and the next ones in 16:25-17:00 getting slower and slower (peak reached). 3xMile in 5:10 is definitely not a guarantee for sub 16 for a runner who is better at intervals and shorter stuff, and the 400s indicate decent speed in this athlete.
Based on the workouts, the 1st & 2nd easily indicate sub 16 (especially the 3rd 3k rep in 9:45 on hilly terrain is worth a ton, indicating even 15:30 or better), but the 3rd workout is an extremely negative outlier, absolutely no reason to drop down to a pace slower than what he did in the last 3k of the 3x3k on hilly terrain, so something is wrong here, maybe the hilly terrain wasn't accurately measured and a good bit shorter than 3k.
For what it is worth...
I ran 15:56 a few weeks ago. 10 days prior I ran 4x1600 with 3’ rest in 5:05/5:06/5:07/5:08 and would call it about an 8/10 difficulty. I am more of a speed oriented runner.
I tend to agree that unless that 3xmile workout was an off-day it is hard to predict a sub 16.