Given the following variables: that he
- Played sports growing up (standing around sports don't count)
- Does 40-60 mpw 11/12 months of the year
- Does two or three fast workouts every week
- Doesn't get injured
- Doesn't let girls distract them
Sham 69 ??
I would guess around 5 flat. It is a lot easier to get to that time than most people think, especially given the variables. It would also depend a lot on the recovery run pace. If they aren't recovering properly, they would most likely not improve as much as they could. Played sports growing up is a huge factor, and one that could change a 5:10 to perhaps 4:5x. I truly believe a lot more kids could hit a sub 5 than many might think.
First one out of the shoot completely misses the mark. Many high schools have entire XC teams doing that training and the average guy on the team runs 6 minutes. No. The average kid, I assume we mean median, will run 7 minutes.
Really? I would think 4:30. A lot of those kids are probably not running year round
I would assume they would be training for cross country only. The OP posted about the average time for high school mile times running almost year round, and that probably means training for the MILE year round, not necessarily cross country. Therefore, a typical guy who has trained for 2 years (average time to adjust to training cycle), would probably be closer to 5:00.
4:3x might be a bit of a jump if I am being honest. An average joe would have to have a little more than 2 years to train for that time.
Hi david45, shut up.
Dr. of Nothing wrote:
First one out of the shoot completely misses the mark. Many high schools have entire XC teams doing that training and the average guy on the team runs 6 minutes. No. The average kid, I assume we mean median, will run 7 minutes.
This sounds like cap in my book. If anyone isn’t running under 6 at track meets they become the kid that other teams cheer for cause the rest of the race has been over for at least 30 seconds and they are proud of his effort.
My team is the definition of average and this is what our top 7 ran, on about 20-25 coach prescribed miles with the top 3 of us putting in 20-25 extra miles as well
4:27
4:31
4:31
4:52
4:56
4:57
5:03
I don’t have the exact data but the median was around 5:25 that year. We had a couple kids not break six but most were around the 5:30-5:40 range
Investing, politics, and covid politics wrote:
Hi david45, shut up.
He didnt even comment on this thread
I’ve found that the 3 programs in my state that have coaches dedicated enough to build their athletes to 50-65 mpw produce state championship competitive teams regularly.
They sometimes even have JV guys running sub 16. One of my best friends went to one of these schools and he ran 2:02-4:31-9:49 and 15:50 3 mile XC and was not varsity his senior year.
I’d say with a solid sized team and a perfect miler training plan, your average runner would run about 5 flat, with top 5 varsity usually looking like:
4:10
4:15
4:20
4:25
4:30
Sham 69 wrote:
Investing, politics, and covid politics wrote:
Hi david45, shut up.
He didnt even comment on this thread
Yes, you did.
ElGuerroujFan wrote:
I would guess around 5 flat. It is a lot easier to get to that time than most people think, especially given the variables. It would also depend a lot on the recovery run pace. If they aren't recovering properly, they would most likely not improve as much as they could. Played sports growing up is a huge factor, and one that could change a 5:10 to perhaps 4:5x. I truly believe a lot more kids could hit a sub 5 than many might think.
I think you're right, EGF. Around 5 min would be my guess also. Plus or minus 5 flat.
Whatever dude
Dr. of Nothing wrote:
First one out of the shoot completely misses the mark. Many high schools have entire XC teams doing that training and the average guy on the team runs 6 minutes. No. The average kid, I assume we mean median, will run 7 minutes.
The average guy runs six minutes off 40-60mpw? Lol no
6 minutes is what an average guy can do off about 10mpw.
Our XC team has 40+ guys and most of them have broken 6 already, with 8-10 or so breaking 5. Not all of them stick around for track, but all of the distance guys break 6 by the end of the track season, most of them are well under it during the first race.
It's official, Sham69 is the new David 45
I'm just trying to estimate the amount of time I left to get a solid time that will get me a scholarship at a good school. Plus, I was curious.
In this case, you would be able to change your training. Not drastically, but now that you have been training for 2 years, you should be able to adjust your training and eventually adapt to the new volume and/or intensity. 2 years is a perfect amount of time to benefit from a new training load. It will allow you to improve more than if you had kept sticking with the original training regimen, provided you don't get injured.
Sham 69 wrote:
I'm just trying to estimate the amount of time I left to get a solid time that will get me a scholarship at a good school. Plus, I was curious.
Most people don't seem to find it necessary to disprove the types of accusations I'm making. They also don't seem to write such similar things. New topic, same smell.
It's my senior year and I've only been training for 4 months. went from 6:16 to 4:48. From the data I think I can go 4:1_ by track season. I have only been doing 12.5 mpw all interval work so far.