Official 2020 Monaco DL Discussion Thread

Pozzi 13.06

Joseph 13.19

Holloway 13.20

M1500

1. Timothy Cheruiyot 3:29

2. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:29.8.

3. Yomif Kejelcha 3:30.5

4. Filip Ingebrigtsen 3:31

5. Jake Wightman 3:33

6. Marcin Lewandowski 3:34

7. Craig Engels 3:35

8. Kalle Berglund 3:36

M1500

1. Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:29.07

2. Jake Wightman 3:30.18

3. Filip Ingebrigtsen 3:30.46

4. Timothy Cheruiyot 3:31.29

5. Kalle Berglund 3:32.80

6. Marcin Lewandowski 3:33.12

7. Yomif Kejelcha 3:33.51

8. Craig Engels 3:33.92

I'll guess that Joshua goes 12:45-48, after getting through 3k at 7:36 but the heat just gets him. Nobody else under 13.

I expect Tim to win the 1500 in spite of his not so hot 2k, he'll have ramped things up since then. 3:29-3:30. Jakob runs 3:30 again but scares Tim. I'd love to see him win but I'm taking the safe bet. Yomif looks great and moves up at 1000 but his last 200 is messy and he runs 3:33, pipped by Marcin, Wightman, or Filip who all run around 3:32. Craig runs his usual 3:34 or so.

Brazier runs a dominant 1:42, but likely not PB. Hassan wins in 14:25 or so.

Reekie beats Muir for the win. Raevyn struggles.

Men's 200m

Noah Lyles 19.63

Josephus Lyles 19.97

Elijah Hall Thompson 20.08

Ramil Guliyev 20.15

Adam Gemili 20.26

Mario Burke 20.45

Deniz Almas 20.51

Mouhamadou Fall 20.77

I wonder if we’re all dismissing Charlie Grice or if you guys are reworking my picks for top 8.

Women's 100m

Marie Josee Ta Lou 11.06

Ajla Del Ponte 11.09

Aleia Hobbs 11.11

Rebekka Haase 11.13

Gina Luckenkemper 11.22

Daryll Neita 11.27

Maja Mihalenec 11.30

Anna Bongiorni 11.35

[quote]John Wesley Harding wrote:

W5000

1. Hellen Obiri 14:24.76

2. Sifan Hassan 14:26.05

3. Letsenbet Gidey 14:26.92

4. Beatrice Chepkoech 14:36.13

5. Laura Weightman 14:45.89

6. Shannon Rowbury 14:46.31

7. Winny Chebet 14:47.85

8. Jessica Hull 14:53.23

/quote]

I generally like your predictions, but disagree with Obiri beating Hassan and Gidey, as she's a league below those two and also apparently only runs because her management wants her to, while she herself wanted to withdraw because of bad shape. And if we believe Chepkoech's own words about not even being able to chase a hen like two weeks ago she should be more like 16min+ or DNF.

Gideygoat wrote:

[quote]John Wesley Harding wrote:

W5000

1. Hellen Obiri 14:24.76

2. Sifan Hassan 14:26.05

3. Letsenbet Gidey 14:26.92

4. Beatrice Chepkoech 14:36.13

5. Laura Weightman 14:45.89

6. Shannon Rowbury 14:46.31

7. Winny Chebet 14:47.85

8. Jessica Hull 14:53.23

/quote]

I generally like your predictions, but disagree with Obiri beating Hassan and Gidey, as she's a league below those two and also apparently only runs because her management wants her to, while she herself wanted to withdraw because of bad shape. And if we believe Chepkoech's own words about not even being able to chase a hen like two weeks ago she should be more like 16min+ or DNF.

That’s a bit harsh considering she’s the 2x defending 5k world champ, the world XC champ, has a faster 5k PB than either Hassan or Gidey and beat them both at that distance as recently as July of last year. But if she’s out of shape that changes things.

John Wesley Harding wrote:

That’s a bit harsh considering she’s the 2x defending 5k world champ, the world XC champ, has a faster 5k PB than either Hassan or Gidey and beat them both at that distance as recently as July of last year. But if she’s out of shape that changes things.

Yeah, maybe not the right choice of words (obviously Obiri still might be the most successfull of those three), what I just meant is that Hassan & Gidey in their top shape last year (Stanford, Bruxelles or Doha) were better than any version of Obiri we know off. Gidey's weakness seems to be that she recovers quite slowly, hence her bad race in July like 3-4 days after the ethiopian 10000m trials and probably also the reason she didn't attempt the double in Doha.

koko ?

John Wesley Harding wrote:

I wonder if we’re all dismissing Charlie Grice or if you guys are reworking my picks for top 8.

Not sure what kind of shape Charlie Grice is in. He apparently had a 1000m time trial a couple of weeks ago with clubmates Elliot Giles and George Mills (the guy who just finished second to Max Burgin over 800m) and came in third with a 2:19. But then again, last year when he ran his 3:30 he was recovering from injury problems and had only been running 30 MPW or something.

Jake Wightman is obviously in very good form and will hopefully set a new pb (currently 3:31.87) and even give Jakob and Tim a real run.

Valerio wrote:

Women's 100m

Marie Josee Ta Lou 11.06

Ajla Del Ponte 11.09

Aleia Hobbs 11.11

Rebekka Haase 11.13

Gina Luckenkemper 11.22

Daryll Neita 11.27

Maja Mihalenec 11.30

Anna Bongiorni 11.35

Have a big feeling Ta Lou is out of shape

5000m wrote:

koko ?

Reportedly injured and has been removed from the start list:

preJr wrote:

I'll guess that Joshua goes 12:45-48, after getting through 3k at 7:36 but the heat just gets him. Nobody else under 13.

I expect Tim to win the 1500 in spite of his not so hot 2k, he'll have ramped things up since then. 3:29-3:30. Jakob runs 3:30 again but scares Tim. I'd love to see him win but I'm taking the safe bet. Yomif looks great and moves up at 1000 but his last 200 is messy and he runs 3:33, pipped by Marcin, Wightman, or Filip who all run around 3:32. Craig runs his usual 3:34 or so.

Brazier runs a dominant 1:42, but likely not PB. Hassan wins in 14:25 or so.

Reekie beats Muir for the win. Raevyn struggles.

I think this is pretty 'spot on'. The only disagreement I have here is that I think Jakob could finally break 3.30, though Tim C will still beat him ( EPO + Kenyan genetics are hard to beat in a hard, fast race).

That's a good point. Jakob is clearly capable of 3:29, as his brother has run 3:30.01 and Jakob is now the superior runner. I'm pretty sure Tim will have the edge, with your reasoning bin mind. What I wonder is whether the race will be as fast as a usual Tim race, as he's clearly not going to be in peak '19 shape. It's totally possible neither go sub 3:30.

Another preview:

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/08/world-champions-donavan-brazier-noah-lyles-speak-ahead-of-monaco-diamond-league/

LetsRun wrote:

https://www.letsrun.com/news/2020/08/2020-monaco-dl-preview-the-2020-olympics-is-happening-on-friday-in-monaco/

I genuinely LOL’d at “Pete Julian’s Zombie NOP”.

For 800m -

Donavan Brazier 1:42.1- His 1500m he ran in 3:35 off of that massive negative split is encouraging. His season opener was pretty good too. He's ready. Real competition will push him. I think it's easy to fall into the hype trap but he's just looks so smooth running fast. I'm thinking he lurks in 2nd place through 400m (hopefully in 49) takes off with 300m to go and dusts everyone.

Bryce Hoppel 1:44.4 - Have not kept up with his training at all but I just like him so I'm rooting for him to run a fast time. He seems nice and just happy to be there whenever he's racing. Un-punchable face.

1500m -

Jakob Ingebrigtsen 3:30.1 - He's going to run fast but I think he's going to be stuck around this mark for a long time.

Filip Ingebrigtsen 3:32.5 - Will fade in last 400m.

Craig Engels - 3:33 - He's gonna get towed out fast (hopefully) and just needs to hang on.

Yomif Kejelcha - 3:29.3 - I dislike the look of this man. He has a punchable face. Having said that, I think he will win the 1500m.

Siffan Hassan 14:18 - She'll start to do her weird toothpick arm side to side thing and clap everyone with 1600m left.