I'm in a relatively fast highschool track program that has won either a conference championship or an individual championship for the last 5 years in a row during XC. We've had two 9th graders this past season dip into the 17s--one at 17:14 and the other at 17:45 for 5k. Another ran low 18. Their times during track were 4:47 and 4:51 for the mile. Isn't this a bit extraordinary considering that most frosh run 5:10-20? I'm afraid our school is too gungho about track because most of them have been doing high lactate speedwork since middleschool, for example, 10x200s with a 50m jog.
Our older varsity runners, juniors, are either mediocre, or talented and injured. One guy cannot seem to break 17 for 5k despite having run mid-17 during his FRESHMAN year (he doesn't train hard so it cannot possibly be his ceiling). The other is extremely talented, ran a 4:38 mile off of 4 weeks of training, but is constantly injured--fractured his foot twice in the span of a couple months. Will the current frosh have the same fate, or are they just extremely talented? Will they burnout from doing 4-5 days of speedwork a week?