Unless bad weather, with the help of 1-2 pacemakers + wavelights, Joshua can't fail in beating the WR. I'd say he runs 12:34 with a ridiculous 57.xx last lap if everything goes well.
Unless bad weather, with the help of 1-2 pacemakers + wavelights, Joshua can't fail in beating the WR. I'd say he runs 12:34 with a ridiculous 57.xx last lap if everything goes well.
Wavelights in DL?
Doubtful. Also Mo Ahmed is a 5000m runner like Cheptegai and 12:47 is still very far.
Cheptegai fails and lands 12:45 after starting too fast.
Yes, they don't distribute DL points either, is not a conventional season for sure. Why not have Ahmed in the race too? Maybe he can run even faster, but Joshua gets the WR, unless he goes out at sub 12:30 pace which won't happen with wavelights.
NNPower wrote:
Yes, they don't distribute DL points either, is not a conventional season for sure. Why not have Ahmed in the race too? Maybe he can run even faster, but Joshua gets the WR, unless he goes out at sub 12:30 pace which won't happen with wavelights.
Why do you think that the 5000m record is so soft than Cheptegai is a lock to beat it? That record is extremely hard and Cheptegai is no Bekele.
Rigolidion wrote:
NNPower wrote:
Yes, they don't distribute DL points either, is not a conventional season for sure. Why not have Ahmed in the race too? Maybe he can run even faster, but Joshua gets the WR, unless he goes out at sub 12:30 pace which won't happen with wavelights.
Why do you think that the 5000m record is so soft than Cheptegai is a lock to beat it? That record is extremely hard and Cheptegai is no Bekele.
Cheaterfly spikes.
AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH... MAN!! Good one!
cheesewiz wrote:
AHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAH... MAN!! Good one!
Come back in a few months or years and you'll realize it wasn't a joke. We're about to re-live the Vaporfly transformation on the track.
Different times, better technology, training, nutrition, and Joshua is incredibly talented, on par with Eliud and Kenenisa. Achievements will continue to gather year after year.
I bet on 12'40 if he paces himself well.
And 12'45-50 if he starts at 12'30 pace.
NNPower wrote:
Yes, they don't distribute DL points either, is not a conventional season for sure. Why not have Ahmed in the race too? Maybe he can run even faster, but Joshua gets the WR, unless he goes out at sub 12:30 pace which won't happen with wavelights.
Agree with having Moh in the race!
I'm sorry Cheptegei is not on par with prime Bekele. He would get smoked by prime Bekele.
Heard Monaco will be insane, Cheptegei + Gressier, Wanders, Henrik(Jakob either 5000 or 1500) are locked, with some other top africans guaranteed(coming with the same charter flight as Joshua). Mo Ahmed would be a great addition to an already stellar field. 12:37 might really go down this time
Mzungu in Iten wrote:
Heard Monaco will be insane, Cheptegei + Gressier, Wanders, Henrik(Jakob either 5000 or 1500) are locked, with some other top africans guaranteed(coming with the same charter flight as Joshua). Mo Ahmed would be a great addition to an already stellar field. 12:37 might really go down this time
You know what flight these “other top Africans” are taking but don’t have any names?
Anyway, Jimmy Gressier 12:36
Lock it in.
ShilohDoesntCare wrote:
I'm sorry Cheptegei is not on par with prime Bekele. He would get smoked by prime Bekele.
For sure. But in his WR attempt Bekele ran 7 laps alone. He was probably good for 12:33-34.
Daniel Komen ran 7:20 and 12:39. Joshua might run 12:44. No faster.
Koolaider wrote:
Daniel Komen ran 7:20 and 12:39. Joshua might run 12:44. No faster.
We can guess how fast Joshua can run . But we will see what happens . I have adviced him before
about possible times based on his racing and training results, and I was of course right in my predictions.
Koolaider wrote:
Daniel Komen ran 7:20 and 12:39. Joshua might run 12:44. No faster.
Komen was a 1500-5000 guy. Cheptegei is a 5000+ guy. They are coming at it for different angles. He is probably in sub 26:30 shape. He ran 12:51 on the roads last year and is young enough he probably has improved. He has a shot, and can run faster than 12:44.
birdbeard wrote:
ShilohDoesntCare wrote:
I'm sorry Cheptegei is not on par with prime Bekele. He would get smoked by prime Bekele.
For sure. But in his WR attempt Bekele ran 7 laps alone. He was probably good for 12:33-34.
^This.
On a similar note, consider Barega’s 12:43.02 in 2018, when the pacer hit 2k in 5:11.5 and Barega himself ran the last 3k in 7:30.x with a 56 last lap—how fast was he capable of in a truly ideal time trial? Sub-12:40 seems likely, which makes 12:37.35 seem less mythical.
I’ll be quite surprised if Cheptegei gets the record, but if the pacing and weather are good I think he could scare 12:40. Remember, he’s only 23 and hasn’t stopped improving yet.
John Wesley Harding wrote:
birdbeard wrote:
For sure. But in his WR attempt Bekele ran 7 laps alone. He was probably good for 12:33-34.
^This.
On a similar note, consider Barega’s 12:43.02 in 2018, when the pacer hit 2k in 5:11.5 and Barega himself ran the last 3k in 7:30.x with a 56 last lap—how fast was he capable of in a truly ideal time trial? Sub-12:40 seems likely, which makes 12:37.35 seem less mythical.
I’ll be quite surprised if Cheptegei gets the record, but if the pacing and weather are good I think he could scare 12:40. Remember, he’s only 23 and hasn’t stopped improving yet.
Wrong.
Barega could end slightly faster because he had started slowed. If he had started faster he would have burnt sooner. He had the unique chance to be dragged by Kejelcha the whole race too.
Bekele did try to start faster in 2005 than his 2004 attempt and ended in 12:40. 5k is a punishing event if you start too fast.
I thought about this last night. I say 12:32 for Cheptegei.