I don't know if he's still training for the 1500 given his 13 flat last year, but if he is, what are the chances he is better than his PR/when he got the OG. His 3:30 was 5 years ago, and his OG was almost 4 years ago now.
I've also heard a lot about him getting injured a lot. Not sure if he is right now, but if he stays healthy does he have a shot?
Like 0%.
Unfortunately this year was a bust. He’s turning 31 in the fall.
Injury-prone.
If he was healthy since 2016 and had quality season after season I’d say definitely.
0%
Zero.
He's run 3:30 once, and it was in Monaco being towed by Kiprop. His best days in the 1500 are clearly behind him.
0%
100%. Oh, wait, you were asking chances of breaking 3:30. My bad, I thought you were asking about the chance he doesn't break 3:30
Rocket Mann wrote:
I don't know if he's still training for the 1500 given his 13 flat last year, but if he is, what are the chances he is better than his PR/when he got the OG. His 3:30 was 5 years ago, and his OG was almost 4 years ago now.
I've also heard a lot about him getting injured a lot. Not sure if he is right now, but if he stays healthy does he have a shot?
he ran 3:32 at worlds last year serving as the de facto pacer after the gap Kwemoi and Cheryout created. This was after heats and semi-finals in a season where he was injured. all things considered last year was promising. if he can string together a healthy year no reason he can't run under 3:30
Where has he been lately?
I would say that if he was ever going to do it, next season will be his last chance. He still has the speed for it and better endurance now than when he last got close to breaking the barrier.
Another year older though so its got to be now or never.....maybe covid has taken away his chance.
Swaglord_the_real_one wrote:
Like 0%.
Unfortunately this year was a bust. He’s turning 31 in the fall.
Injury-prone.
If he was healthy since 2016 and had quality season after season I’d say definitely.
31 is not old for the 1500m. Farah ran 3:28 at 32. Willis ran 3:29 at 32 after years of ~3:31 ability.
At this point its more likely he breaks the 5k AR than dips below 3:30 in the 15.
donkey doug wrote:
At this point its more likely he breaks the 5k AR than dips below 3:30 in the 15.
This^^^ His focus should be on the 5000 now, because sub-13:00 capability with his finishing speed makes him a contender. Plus, he may only get one more shot at Olympic glory at his age, so he should move up. I think he could run 12:55 and scare Lagat's record too. Can't see him running sub-3:30. Monaco always goes fast, for whatever reason, so that was his best opportunity.
Sub 13 is likely, and he clearly needed only some more speed sharpening last fall and the right opportunity to run 3:30 or break it. He can still do it in the next couple years but he's never had the mindset for running fast races. He'll enter about one a year but he is a racer and a winner and thrives in slower championship races with rounds. He might get some good time trials with BTC, though, now that they're doing them. He never had close to 13 flat with Salazar when he ran 3:30, so he clearly has the added aerobic power now, but he probably lacked that 1:44 speed. So, I give him a shot at it if he's healthy next year.
2018 (non-Championship year) was really the year to do it, but I think there were ups-and-downs in his last year with Salazar and he didn't really get rolling. At this point, given every year from now is going to be a championship year and he's with Jerry I'd find it pretty unlikely. He'd need to race in Europe (Monaco most likely) and tag along on a race where Jakob, Manangoi and Cheruiyot all went after 3:27-3:28.
Look at me now, I'm a lot like you were wrote:
donkey doug wrote:
At this point its more likely he breaks the 5k AR than dips below 3:30 in the 15.
This^^^ His focus should be on the 5000 now, because sub-13:00 capability with his finishing speed makes him a contender. Plus, he may only get one more shot at Olympic glory at his age, so he should move up. I think he could run 12:55 and scare Lagat's record too. Can't see him running sub-3:30. Monaco always goes fast, for whatever reason, so that was his best opportunity.
Yeah, running 13:00 in a perfectly paced time trial (and losing to two teammates in the process) definitely indicates 12:55 ability.
Yikes.
ex-runner wrote:
Willis ran 3:29 at 32 after years of ~3:31 ability.
Nothing to see here.
???
not gonna happen wrote:
Yeah, running 13:00 in a perfectly paced time trial (and losing to two teammates in the process) definitely indicates 12:55 ability.
Yikes.
He's a 1500m guy, and the distance and volume of training were relatively new to him. I also recall him saying he did a really long run/work out either the day or two days before the race.
5 seconds is a reasonable amount to drop in a 5km., accounting for being new to the distance and training through that time trial.
He could potentially break 3.30 in the 1485m.
macdaddy wrote:
ex-runner wrote:
Willis ran 3:29 at 32 after years of ~3:31 ability.
Nothing to see here.
???
So what do you think of Lomong's 12:58 tonight?
All you people sketical of people running fast in their 30s are the same who have been drinking too many beers and packed on 30+ lbs from their glory days. You don't stop training at a high level because you age, you age because you stop training at a high level and sit on your couch surfing LRC.
good kidd madd city wrote:
macdaddy wrote:
Nothing to see here.
???
So what do you think of Lomong's 12:58 tonight?
All you people sketical of people running fast in their 30s are the same who have been drinking too many beers and packed on 30+ lbs from their glory days. You don't stop training at a high level because you age, you age because you stop training at a high level and sit on your couch surfing LRC.
I think Lomong finally started focusing on the 5k/10k after years of being a 1500 guy.
Can you say the same for Willis?