Things are going to get very interesting. Putin apparently has stiffed Prigozhin out of a promised reward for capturing Bakhmut (for now). Prigozhin is pulling Wagner out of Bakhmut, but they are getting hammered as they try to retreat. Russian MOD forces let their flanks collapse and are now making Wagner fight their way out of Bakhmut instead of providing cover.
The ruble is tanking again after drone strikes show that Russia has stretched its armed forces so thin that it cannot defend itself against attacks from Ukrainian partisans in Russia. Russia has enough foreign reserves to cover its deficit spending for a year (assuming that the ruble does not crash any further) but then will have to start borrowing. At that point, Russia will either have to completely sublimate itself to China or take whatever deal it can get to end the war. Ukraine also has a timeline due to the 2024 US election and budget deals. But an anti-Ukraine/pro-Russian foreign policy has only had traction in an odd horseshoe of far left and right wingers in the US. And the squad/Bernie has been willing to support Biden on Ukraine. So, the odds of a presidential/congressional flip on Ukraine are not good. But it is simply a question of burn rate for Russian deficit spending.
The drone strike on Moscow targeted Rublevka, one of the wealthiest housing districts where Putin and many aligned oligarchs and government ministers have residences. Belgorod was also shelled and drones struck two refineries in Russia. Germany broke with the US on whether Ukraine can launch attacks on Russian soil and also is in a diplomatic spat, ordering consulates to close. Germany is training Ukrainian soldiers on Abrams tanks and may be moving to give Ukraine access to Eurofighter jets. My guess is that Russian redlines were based on assurances that Russia would not wage war on civilians in Ukraine. As Russia has increasingly targeted civilians and civilian infrastructure, the West has reversed course on sending tanks, jets, missile defense and now attacks on Russian soil. Russia's best play is to make the entire war in Ukraine a very long series of campaigns like Bakhmut and Mariupol to wear out Ukraine forces and Western support while counting on financing from China and the oil and gas sector. But Ukraine and the West's response has made it very difficult for Russia to maintain a war of attrition. Russia now can only hope to successfully defend Ukraine's counter offensive and cut a deal before the money runs out.
Business insider article has former Russian finance minister saying Russia's finances are "sh#t". google it
