Since CC keeps quoting that article, let's pause and ask ourselves: "Does Daniel L. Davis have a track record of smart, informed takes on Ukraine, or has he gotten it wrong every single time since February 2022?"
Let's check the record. In a nutshell: He's a laughingstock who was wrong about everything, but he's still arguing for the same things as he was 15 months ago, even though he was proved wrong time after time. He's a dressed-up, respectable crank who sensible people should ignore.
20 February 2022: "Why Russia Likely Won't Try to Capture Kyiv"
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1495547504045268996
21 February 2022: "Putin just recognized Luhansk & Donetsk as independent. He's baiting Zelensky to seize them by force. If Z attempts, Putin blitzes in"
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1495847101993005060
23(!) February 2022: "As Putin seizes parts of eastern Ukraine, the risk of war bt Moscow & Kyiv goes up another notch."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1496503711295754240
25 February 2022: "Ukraine simply doesn't have the mil capacity to defeat Russia's invasion."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1497289247350562818
25 February 2022: "We knew, before the war started, that Russian mil was quantitatively/qualitatively superior to the Ukraine mil and couldn't repulse Putin's attack."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1497302607764799506
27 February 2022: "Russia is in the process of systematically destroying the Ukrainian armed forces and progressively removing their ability to defend the capital."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1498042491114770434
28 February 2022: "Meanwhile, the UAF don’t have any reinforcements. When they suffer casualties, there’s no one to replace them."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1498276280105672706
28 February 2022: "I think if Z doesn't reach a negotiated settlement in 48hrs, Putin will crush UAF in the east and then threaten Kyiv."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1498393000094875649
1 March 2022: "Putin seeks a political outcome by using his troops, not a territorial conquest. He would lose, big time, if he tried to conquer and keep Ukraine"
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1498720381565382656
1 March 2022: "The sober reality of the RussianUkrainianWar: despite mistakes & heavy losses by Russia in war's first days, they are marching to Kyiv. Ukraine needs to negotiate w urgency to stop war before Russia gets to Kyiv."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1498780428609720323
2 March 2022: "That U AF hasn't torched the vehicles implies they can't fly w/o being shot dn. The most likely cause of the convoy's static pos is that Ru is waiting until forces from the south & east converge to close on Kyiv from all directions."
https://twitter.com/DanielLDavis1/status/1500913704472350720