No.
You will miss out when the stock trades to $65.
You will be shaking in your boots frozen in shock.
No.
You will miss out when the stock trades to $65.
You will be shaking in your boots frozen in shock.
but i checked wrote:
When the market goes south it will be fast and steep and Hussman will look like a genius.
Staying out of the market for years during a climb while waiting for a decline is not being a genius. Just the opposite.
Declaring you're a genius when it happens is fine, as long as you called yourself an idiot everyday for the past eight years.
is this an all time low for the VIX? Thereabouts anyway. it just keeps falling.
amazing stuff with all the nuclear standoff issues, brexit, le pen, trump, nutso US gov't...somehow traders think risk is at all time lows.
That dont' sound right to me.
Easy explanation: nothing fundamental matters.
I can't remember who but, awhile back, somebody on here hit the nail on the head when they said, "Things are different this time".
It's just that some on here won't accept it till the death.
mellon wrote:
I can't remember who but, awhile back, somebody on here hit the nail on the head when they said, "Things are different this time".
It's just that some on here won't accept it till the death.
“Old ways of valuing stocks are outdated. A technological revolution has created opportunities for continued low inflation, expanding profits and rising productivity. Thanks to these factors, the United States may be able to enjoy an extended period of expanding stock prices. Jumping out now would leave you poorer than you might become if you have some faith.â€
Los Angeles Times, May 11, 1999
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
Easy explanation: nothing fundamental matters.
but that's not really true
profits are surging, interest rates are low and stable, the US wants to lower corporate taxes (which would juice profits)...
I mean there are things on the negative side of the ledger too, but there are plenty of reasons for stocks to be rising.
I'd just expect there to be more fear.
I take issue with profits surging. I gave several examples be it MCD, CAT or AMZN where the quarterly profits announcement were interpreted as beats, where the facts were somewhat different. If profits were surging as you suggest why have earnings expectations for this quarter continue to fall. One year ago Q1 non-GAAP was projected at $31.00 falling to $30.12 by 12/31/2016, and now tracking at $29.05. GAAP numbers is another set of reality. Investors continue to pay more for a unit of earnings be it GAAP or non-GAAP. Very similar to past bubbles.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
I take issue with profits surging. I gave several examples be it MCD, CAT or AMZN where the quarterly profits announcement were interpreted as beats, where the facts were somewhat different. If profits were surging as you suggest why have earnings expectations for this quarter continue to fall. One year ago Q1 non-GAAP was projected at $31.00 falling to $30.12 by 12/31/2016, and now tracking at $29.05. GAAP numbers is another set of reality. Investors continue to pay more for a unit of earnings be it GAAP or non-GAAP. Very similar to past bubbles.
earnings estimates always fall as the year goes. That's how wall street works. But those are just estimates - not actual results. Ok so profits won't rise as much as the street said the would. Doesn't mean profits wont' rise sharply anyway. Just less sharply.
there is no denying that compared to the year ago quarter earnigns are up what - 9%? 7%? That sounds like a surge to me.
btw it looks like factset's earnings insight may be dead or at least on hiatus. THey haven't updated it since april 13. too bad - it was one of my favorite sources...if a little confusing.
S&P 500 Reporting First Double-Digit Earnings Growth Since 2011
Howard Silverblatt stopped reporting GAAP weekly beats/misses. I wonder why?
In regards to earnings, the bottom line is the hype is greater than the reality. One fact that cannot be disputed investors are paying more for a unit of earnings than at any point since Q3 2009.
First sentence quote from your stock cheerleading report:"The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies yet to report) earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 for the first quarter is 12.5% as of today."Not mentioned is the stock buybacks, non-GAAP reporting, cost cutting, and the lack of real organic growth.
Gruntz wrote:
S&P 500 Reporting First Double-Digit Earnings Growth Since 2011
https://insight.factset.com/earningsinsight_04.28.17
You're the one who seems to like estimates. So there you go.
You would think after so many years of the wrong message coming up, you would trade in your 8 Ball for a new one. I think Toys R Us have them for about 5 bucks. (The amount of money you've probably made during that time)
You are so wrong, but that's OK.
Ghost of Igloi wrote:
In regards to earnings, the bottom line is the hype is greater than the reality. One fact that cannot be disputed investors are paying more for a unit of earnings than at any point since Q3 2009.
As we've seen, the reality is quite good. No hype needed.
As for paying more, that's always true at a market top. The buy-and-holders and passive investors that have been in for much of the Bull market have paid substantially less for those earnings. In fact, they have profited in spades.
.mellon wrote:
but i checked wrote:When the market goes south it will be fast and steep and Hussman will look like a genius.
Staying out of the market for years during a climb while waiting for a decline is not being a genius. Just the opposite.
How much or how little one is in the market is purely a guess.
The only smart thing one can do is to not pay experts for advice.
Declaring you're a genius when it happens is fine, as long as you called yourself an idiot everyday for the past eight years.
Who called himself a genius? You do realize you are using the strawman fallacy? I can never tell what % of your comments are dishonest and and what is just pure stupidity. Can you give us a clue?